The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Runic
1x $0.15
Ultralight
1x $0.28
Ol' Rusty
2x $0.30
Mint Fan
2x $0.37
Reef Grief
2x $0.40
Royal Baroque
1x $1.05
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
30.0% $18.08
Royal Guard
30.0% $5.56
Allure
8.0% $0.74
Monster Call
8.0% $0.71
Brother
8.0% $0.71
Kitbash
8.0% $0.71
Max Win
$18.08 (+204.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.38 (+24.4%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+122.9%
Cost
$5.93
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.93
Ask Price EV $7.38 (+24.4%)
Bid Price EV $6.36 (+7.3%)
Ask Profit $1.45 (+24.4%)
Bid Profit $0.43 (+7.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.01 (+17.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.45
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.43
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+204.8%)
Worst Case $0.67 (-88.7%)
Volatility +122.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$12.15
Avg Loss -$3.14
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.67 (-88.7%)
Std Dev $7.29
Avg Norm Float 0.1998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 152h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$1.24 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 27S //TOTAL COST $5.93 //ASK PRICE EV $7.38 //BID PRICE EV $6.36 //ASK PROFIT $1.45 (+24.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.43 (+7.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +122.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$18.08
+$12.15
+204.8%
$15.21
+$9.28
+156.5%
$2.87
15.9%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$5.56
-$0.37
-6.2%
$5.11
-$0.82
-13.8%
$0.45
8.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$5.19
-87.6%
$0.69
-$5.24
-88.4%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.71
-$5.22
-88.0%
$0.69
-$5.24
-88.4%
$0.02
3.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.71
-$5.22
-88.0%
$0.66
-$5.27
-88.9%
$0.05
7.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.71
-$5.22
-88.0%
$0.63
-$5.30
-89.4%
$0.08
11.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.67
-$5.26
-88.7%
$0.65
-$5.28
-89.0%
$0.02
3.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.149835,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 18.0765,
"optimistic_value": 17.94,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 15.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.119868,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 5.5645,
"optimistic_value": 5.54,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 5.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:17:03.830819Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.15982400000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.671,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:53.682531Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.737,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:35:31.747771Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:32:04.003661Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.15982400000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:48:45.472519Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.7104999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:33.228779Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4fcd0d9755e8b4b4ad14aa3f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "503983537176426151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:12:16.725533Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "501731842661863121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:41.109423Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "497228190142349057",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:46.969258Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "508487189338851806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:46.969258Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "499480042828325809",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:56.983177Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "509613142168171767",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:44.019953Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "500605837397096555",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:56.983177Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "509613142168121367",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:46.655825Z"
},
{
"price": 1.24,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "511864941881735421",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:49.746322Z"
},
{
"price": 1.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "630083017718303094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:20.885037Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.49 Allure 8.0% $1.76 Brother 8.0% $1.54 Monster Call 8.0% $1.51 Connexion 8.0% $1.34 | $38.92 +174.3% | $16.32 +15.0% | 30.0% | +105.9% | $14.19 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.23 Kitbash 8.0% $0.71 Brother 8.0% $0.70 Allure 8.0% $0.69 Connexion 8.0% $0.67 | $6.93 +192.4% | $2.72 +14.8% | 30.0% | +114.0% | $2.37 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.23 Kitbash 8.0% $0.71 Brother 8.0% $0.69 Connexion 8.0% $0.67 Monster Call 8.0% $0.67 | $6.93 +185.2% | $2.71 +11.7% | 30.0% | +111.3% | $2.43 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.56 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Monster Call 12.0% $0.71 Brother 12.0% $0.71 Kitbash 12.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +367.1% | $5.15 +33.2% | 40.0% | +169.2% | $3.87 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Brother 10.0% $0.72 Monster Call 10.0% $0.71 Kitbash 10.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +271.9% | $6.26 +28.9% | 50.0% | +141.5% | $4.86 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.47 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Monster Call 6.0% $0.71 Brother 6.0% $0.71 Kitbash 6.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +165.4% | $8.45 +24.1% | 35.0% | +103.7% | $6.81 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.49 Allure 4.0% $1.76 Brother 4.0% $1.54 Monster Call 4.0% $1.51 Connexion 4.0% $1.34 | $38.92 +123.2% | $21.26 +21.9% | 40.0% | +83.3% | $17.44 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.38 Allure 2.0% $1.70 Monster Call 2.0% $1.57 Brother 2.0% $1.44 Connexion 2.0% $1.34 | $38.92 +98.4% | $23.68 +20.7% | 45.0% | +70.6% | $19.62 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.56 Allure 16.0% $0.74 Connexion 16.0% $0.72 Brother 16.0% $0.72 Monster Call 16.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +626.0% | $2.94 +18.0% | 20.0% | +207.7% | $2.49 | — |