The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Motorized
1x $0.12
Slag
1x $0.12
Irezumi
1x $0.13
Light Box
1x $0.14
Aeolian Light
5x $0.25
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
30.0% $2.24
Block-18
8.0% $0.77
Etch Lord
8.0% $0.73
Analog Input
8.0% $0.68
Hybrid
8.0% $0.66
Max Win
$5.85 (+149.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.71 (+15.1%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+91.8%
Cost
$2.35
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.35
Ask Price EV $2.71 (+15.1%)
Bid Price EV $2.36 (+0.5%)
Ask Profit $0.36 (+15.1%)
Bid Profit $0.01 (+0.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.34 (+14.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.36
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.01
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+149.0%)
Worst Case $0.63 (-73.2%)
Volatility +91.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.50
Avg Loss -$0.99
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.63 (-73.2%)
Std Dev $2.16
Avg Norm Float 0.4334
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 141h 54m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 48S //TOTAL COST $2.35 //ASK PRICE EV $2.71 //BID PRICE EV $2.36 //ASK PROFIT $0.36 (+15.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.01 (+0.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +91.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$5.85
+$3.50
+149.0%
$4.91
+$2.56
+108.9%
$0.94
16.1%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$2.24
-$0.11
-4.7%
$2.14
-$0.21
-8.9%
$0.10
4.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.77
-$1.58
-67.2%
$0.71
-$1.64
-69.8%
$0.06
7.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.73
-$1.62
-68.9%
$0.58
-$1.77
-75.3%
$0.15
20.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.68
-$1.67
-71.0%
$0.60
-$1.75
-74.5%
$0.08
11.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.66
-$1.69
-71.7%
$0.57
-$1.78
-75.7%
$0.09
14.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.63
-$1.72
-73.2%
$0.62
-$1.73
-73.6%
$0.01
1.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.3250575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.303387,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.2395,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:24:20.382207Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.43341,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.664,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T21:43:38.137647Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.29119734375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 0.771,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:11:50.072397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.43341,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.73,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:07.825109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.43341,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.63,
"optimistic_value": 0.63,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:13.384139Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.2682201126,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 0.681,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:04.443038Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_47cc386a1e1cb6a3a3f4354f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "490472790737425299",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:05.249725Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "525375688036880791",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:39.201090Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "510738989040565054",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:32.614456Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "490472738292849795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:35:57.683862Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "508487136897723158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490550151956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "500605889841196571",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:33.256443Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "498354089953069411",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:38.159872Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.48 Block-18 8.0% $1.48 Analog Input 8.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.75 Hybrid 8.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +180.2% | $5.40 +23.5% | 60.0% | +103.7% | $4.37 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $15.24 Block-18 8.0% $4.17 Analog Input 8.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 8.0% $1.67 Just Smile 8.0% $1.62 | $26.93 +140.8% | $13.61 +21.7% | 60.0% | +86.3% | $11.18 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.48 Block-18 12.0% $1.48 Analog Input 12.0% $1.05 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.75 Hybrid 12.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +300.2% | $3.91 +27.9% | 40.0% | +138.9% | $3.06 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.48 Block-18 4.0% $1.48 Analog Input 4.0% $1.05 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.75 Hybrid 4.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +120.2% | $6.88 +23.7% | 40.0% | +79.1% | $5.56 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.48 Block-18 14.0% $1.48 Analog Input 14.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 14.0% $0.75 Hybrid 14.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +372.8% | $3.17 +22.5% | 30.0% | +150.9% | $2.59 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.51 Block-18 10.0% $1.48 Analog Input 10.0% $1.01 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.75 Hybrid 10.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +221.4% | $4.66 +22.3% | 50.0% | +116.8% | $3.81 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 45.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 45.0% $14.83 Block-18 2.0% $4.17 Analog Input 2.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 2.0% $1.67 Just Smile 2.0% $1.62 | $26.93 +71.9% | $19.03 +21.5% | 45.0% | +48.5% | $15.66 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.51 Block-18 6.0% $1.49 Analog Input 6.0% $1.01 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.75 Hybrid 6.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +141.5% | $6.15 +21.2% | 35.0% | +88.9% | $5.07 | — |