The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Motorized
1x $0.36
Light Box
2x $0.39
Slag
1x $2.08
Creep
2x $1.43
Aeolian Light
2x $1.92
Grip Tape
1x $2.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
30.0% $15.24
Etch Lord
8.0% $10.86
Just Smile
8.0% $9.45
Hybrid
8.0% $8.10
Block-18
8.0% $4.17
Max Win
$26.93 (+59.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.50 (-8.5%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+49.7%
Cost
$16.94
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $16.94
Ask Price EV $15.50 (-8.5%)
Bid Price EV $14.76 (-12.9%)
Ask Profit $-1.44 (-8.5%)
Bid Profit $-2.18 (-12.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.74 (+4.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.44
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.18
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+59.0%)
Worst Case $2.99 (-82.3%)
Volatility +49.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$9.99
Avg Loss -$6.34
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.99 (-82.3%)
Std Dev $8.43
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 3h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Factory New
$1.70 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Factory New
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 26S //TOTAL COST $16.94 //ASK PRICE EV $15.50 //BID PRICE EV $14.76 //ASK PROFIT $-1.44 (-8.5%) //BID PROFIT $-2.18 (-12.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +49.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$26.93
+$9.99
+59.0%
$26.63
+$9.69
+57.2%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$15.24
-$1.70
-10.0%
$13.15
-$3.79
-22.4%
$2.09
13.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$10.86
-$6.08
-35.9%
$10.67
-$6.27
-37.0%
$0.19
1.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$9.45
-$7.49
-44.2%
$9.39
-$7.55
-44.6%
$0.06
0.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.10
-$8.84
-52.2%
$8.09
-$8.85
-52.2%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.17
-$12.77
-75.4%
$4.16
-$12.78
-75.4%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.99
-$13.95
-82.3%
$2.96
-$13.98
-82.5%
$0.03
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.0524325,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.048936999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 15.2405,
"optimistic_value": 14.81,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:21.518147Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 8.1,
"optimistic_value": 8.1,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 8.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:15.472818Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.04697078125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.17,
"optimistic_value": 4.17,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:07.077906Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 10.857,
"optimistic_value": 10.78,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 10.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:35.188581Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.4505,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 9.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:38.242213Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0432645026,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:51.783310Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_47cc386a1e1cb6a3a3f4354f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "493850490549237988",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:26.895870Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "496102290328119551",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:14.896434Z"
},
{
"price": 1.7,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123888072340542",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:32.241016Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "506234592363307536",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:08.697947Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.777284Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "524248990833803271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.777284Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490549357652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:27.408216Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:27.408216Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "520872088106613300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:46.808216Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:59.999027Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.48 Block-18 8.0% $1.48 Analog Input 8.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.75 Hybrid 8.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +180.2% | $5.40 +23.5% | 60.0% | +103.7% | $4.37 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $15.24 Block-18 8.0% $4.17 Analog Input 8.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 8.0% $1.67 Just Smile 8.0% $1.62 | $26.93 +140.8% | $13.61 +21.7% | 60.0% | +86.3% | $11.18 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.24 Block-18 8.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.73 Analog Input 8.0% $0.68 Hybrid 8.0% $0.66 | $5.85 +149.0% | $2.71 +15.1% | 30.0% | +88.3% | $2.35 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.48 Block-18 12.0% $1.48 Analog Input 12.0% $1.05 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.75 Hybrid 12.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +300.2% | $3.91 +27.9% | 40.0% | +138.9% | $3.06 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.48 Block-18 4.0% $1.48 Analog Input 4.0% $1.05 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.75 Hybrid 4.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +120.2% | $6.88 +23.7% | 40.0% | +79.1% | $5.56 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.48 Block-18 14.0% $1.48 Analog Input 14.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 14.0% $0.75 Hybrid 14.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +372.8% | $3.17 +22.5% | 30.0% | +150.9% | $2.59 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.51 Block-18 10.0% $1.48 Analog Input 10.0% $1.01 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.75 Hybrid 10.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +221.4% | $4.66 +22.3% | 50.0% | +116.8% | $3.81 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 45.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 45.0% $14.83 Block-18 2.0% $4.17 Analog Input 2.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 2.0% $1.67 Just Smile 2.0% $1.62 | $26.93 +71.9% | $19.03 +21.5% | 45.0% | +48.5% | $15.66 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.51 Block-18 6.0% $1.49 Analog Input 6.0% $1.01 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.75 Hybrid 6.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +141.5% | $6.15 +21.2% | 35.0% | +88.9% | $5.07 | — |