The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Light Box
1x $0.14
Motorized
1x $0.28
Dezastre
1x $0.30
Hideout
1x $0.31
Grip Tape
2x $0.34
Aeolian Light
3x $0.38
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
30.0% $4.45
Block-18
8.0% $1.49
Analog Input
8.0% $1.06
Etch Lord
8.0% $0.75
Just Smile
8.0% $0.72
Max Win
$12.25 (+190.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.39 (+28.0%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+112.1%
Cost
$4.21
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.21
Ask Price EV $5.39 (+28.0%)
Bid Price EV $4.99 (+18.5%)
Ask Profit $1.18 (+28.0%)
Bid Profit $0.78 (+18.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.40 (+9.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.18
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.78
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+190.9%)
Worst Case $0.72 (-82.9%)
Volatility +112.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.14
Avg Loss -$3.26
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.72 (-82.9%)
Std Dev $4.72
Avg Norm Float 0.1999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 140h 54m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 12S //TOTAL COST $4.21 //ASK PRICE EV $5.39 //BID PRICE EV $4.99 //ASK PROFIT $1.18 (+28.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.78 (+18.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +112.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$12.25
+$8.04
+190.9%
$11.36
+$7.15
+169.8%
$0.89
7.2%
—
PAPER WIN
30.0%
$4.45
+$0.24
+5.8%
$4.10
-$0.11
-2.6%
$0.35
7.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.49
-$2.72
-64.6%
$1.30
-$2.91
-69.1%
$0.19
12.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.06
-$3.15
-74.7%
$0.98
-$3.23
-76.7%
$0.08
7.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.75
-$3.47
-82.3%
$0.69
-$3.52
-83.6%
$0.06
7.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.72
-$3.49
-82.8%
$0.69
-$3.52
-83.6%
$0.03
4.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.72
-$3.49
-82.9%
$0.70
-$3.51
-83.4%
$0.02
2.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.1499475,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.139951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.454000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:43.836405Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.72,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:34.318491Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.13432796875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 1.49,
"optimistic_value": 1.49,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:13.730375Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.745,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:43:47.794455Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.724,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:01:18.165250Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.12372867979999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.0645,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:05.360664Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_47cc386a1e1cb6a3a3f4354f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "490472738292849795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:43:35.753944Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "496102237884868559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:26.016483Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "528752590504674213",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:27.470326Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "509613089303862039",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:43:34.191487Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620288313700148",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:42.494799Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "497228190141529805",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:40.140144Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "497228190141160121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:40.140144Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "491598690699020822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:45.054480Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "492724590626126853",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:28.913662Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "524249735517932847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:43:19.617311Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $15.24 Block-18 8.0% $4.17 Analog Input 8.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 8.0% $1.71 Just Smile 8.0% $1.62 | $26.93 +140.4% | $13.61 +21.5% | 60.0% | +86.1% | $11.20 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.16 Block-18 8.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.73 Hybrid 8.0% $0.66 Just Smile 8.0% $0.65 | $5.85 +141.8% | $2.68 +10.7% | 30.0% | +86.1% | $2.42 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.57 Block-18 12.0% $1.49 Analog Input 12.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.81 Just Smile 12.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +310.9% | $3.94 +32.3% | 40.0% | +142.3% | $2.98 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.51 Block-18 10.0% $1.49 Analog Input 10.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.75 Hybrid 10.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +235.5% | $4.67 +27.8% | 50.0% | +121.7% | $3.65 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.51 Block-18 6.0% $1.49 Analog Input 6.0% $1.05 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.75 Hybrid 6.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +152.0% | $6.15 +26.5% | 35.0% | +92.7% | $4.86 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $1.49 Analog Input 14.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 14.0% $0.75 Just Smile 14.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +387.8% | $3.17 +26.2% | 30.0% | +155.7% | $2.51 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.57 Block-18 4.0% $1.49 Analog Input 4.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.81 Just Smile 4.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +121.0% | $6.92 +24.9% | 40.0% | +79.0% | $5.54 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 45.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 45.0% $15.24 Block-18 2.0% $4.17 Analog Input 2.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 2.0% $1.71 Just Smile 2.0% $1.61 | $26.93 +73.6% | $19.22 +23.9% | 45.0% | +48.2% | $15.51 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  50.0% $27.17 Black Lotus  16.7% $7.60 Jawbreaker  16.7% $5.99 Olympus  16.7% $5.14 | $27.17 +99.8% | $16.71 +22.9% | 50.0% | +77.1% | $13.60 | — |