The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Motorized
1x $0.36
Light Box
3x $0.39
Grip Tape
3x $0.85
Aeolian Light
1x $0.94
Creep
1x $1.43
The Daily Deagle
1x $3.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
30.0% $15.24
Block-18
8.0% $4.17
Analog Input
8.0% $2.99
Etch Lord
8.0% $1.67
Just Smile
8.0% $1.62
Max Win
$26.93 (+140.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$13.61 (+21.7%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+91.5%
Cost
$11.18
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $11.18
Ask Price EV $13.61 (+21.7%)
Bid Price EV $12.87 (+15.2%)
Ask Profit $2.43 (+21.7%)
Bid Profit $1.69 (+15.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.73 (+6.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.43
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.69
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+140.8%)
Worst Case $1.54 (-86.2%)
Volatility +91.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$9.90
Avg Loss -$8.78
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.54 (-86.2%)
Std Dev $10.23
Avg Norm Float 0.0932
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 3h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 48S //TOTAL COST $11.18 //ASK PRICE EV $13.61 //BID PRICE EV $12.87 //ASK PROFIT $2.43 (+21.7%) //BID PROFIT $1.69 (+15.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +91.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$26.93
+$15.75
+140.8%
$26.63
+$15.45
+138.2%
$0.30
1.1%
—
WIN
30.0%
$15.24
+$4.06
+36.3%
$13.15
+$1.97
+17.6%
$2.09
13.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.17
-$7.01
-62.7%
$4.16
-$7.02
-62.8%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.99
-$8.19
-73.3%
$2.96
-$8.22
-73.5%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.67
-$9.51
-85.1%
$1.54
-$9.64
-86.2%
$0.13
7.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.62
-$9.56
-85.5%
$1.58
-$9.60
-85.9%
$0.04
2.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.54
-$9.64
-86.2%
$1.51
-$9.67
-86.5%
$0.03
1.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.0698925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.065233,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 15.2405,
"optimistic_value": 14.81,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:21.518147Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09319,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 1.54,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 1.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:26.895783Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06261203124999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.17,
"optimistic_value": 4.17,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:07.077906Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09319,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 1.668,
"optimistic_value": 1.64,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:07:27.037018Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09319,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 1.617,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:22.813665Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.057671563399999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:51.783310Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_47cc386a1e1cb6a3a3f4354f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "493850490549237988",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:26.895870Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "496102290328119551",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:14.896434Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "510738989040367846",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:14.896434Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "494976224708092746",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:14.896434Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "524249735517932847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:32.641458Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "506235337025136948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:32.641458Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:33.949346Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.777284Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "520872088106613300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:46.808216Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:59.999027Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.48 Block-18 8.0% $1.48 Analog Input 8.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.75 Hybrid 8.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +180.2% | $5.40 +23.5% | 60.0% | +103.7% | $4.37 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.24 Block-18 8.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.73 Analog Input 8.0% $0.68 Hybrid 8.0% $0.66 | $5.85 +149.0% | $2.71 +15.1% | 30.0% | +88.3% | $2.35 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.48 Block-18 12.0% $1.48 Analog Input 12.0% $1.05 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.75 Hybrid 12.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +300.2% | $3.91 +27.9% | 40.0% | +138.9% | $3.06 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.48 Block-18 4.0% $1.48 Analog Input 4.0% $1.05 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.75 Hybrid 4.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +120.2% | $6.88 +23.7% | 40.0% | +79.1% | $5.56 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.48 Block-18 14.0% $1.48 Analog Input 14.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 14.0% $0.75 Hybrid 14.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +372.8% | $3.17 +22.5% | 30.0% | +150.9% | $2.59 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.51 Block-18 10.0% $1.48 Analog Input 10.0% $1.01 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.75 Hybrid 10.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +221.4% | $4.66 +22.3% | 50.0% | +116.8% | $3.81 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 45.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 45.0% $14.83 Block-18 2.0% $4.17 Analog Input 2.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 2.0% $1.67 Just Smile 2.0% $1.62 | $26.93 +71.9% | $19.03 +21.5% | 45.0% | +48.5% | $15.66 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.51 Block-18 6.0% $1.49 Analog Input 6.0% $1.01 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.75 Hybrid 6.0% $0.74 | $12.25 +141.5% | $6.15 +21.2% | 35.0% | +88.9% | $5.07 | — |