The Italy Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred -3.1%Factory New -13.4%Well-Worn -4.9%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Full Stop

1x $0.30

Warm Blooded

5x $0.36

Fraise Crane

1x $0.48

Earth Mandala

1x $0.52

Sky Mandala

2x $0.60

↓

Possible Outputs

Exothermic

45.0% $7.14

Sleeping Potion

45.0% $2.56

Pit Viper

10.0% $1.40

Max Win

$7.14 (+50.7%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.51 (-4.9%)

Win %

45.0%

Volatility

+50.8%

Cost

$4.74

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $4.74

Ask Price EV $4.51 (-4.9%)

Bid Price EV $4.10 (-13.5%)

Ask Profit $-0.23 (-4.9%)

Bid Profit $-0.64 (-13.5%)

Liquidity Gap $0.41 (+8.6%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.23

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.64

Risk

Win Probability 45.0%

Loss Probability 55.0%

Best Case $7.14 (+50.7%)

Worst Case $1.40 (-70.5%)

Volatility +50.8%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 55.0%

Avg Win +$2.40

Avg Loss -$2.39

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.40 (-70.5%)

Std Dev $2.41

Avg Norm Float 0.4473

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 10m

Oldest Output Price 144h 27m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Sawed-Off | Full Stop

—

Minimal Wear

$0.30 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.46 Float: HIDDEN

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

—

Field-Tested

$0.48 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.52 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.54 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.60 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.61 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 07M 15S //TOTAL COST $4.74 //ASK PRICE EV $4.51 //BID PRICE EV $4.10 //ASK PROFIT $-0.23 (-4.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.64 (-13.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $7.14 //VOLATILITY +50.8% //

Possible Outputs · 3

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 1,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 9,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.313117,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 7.1415,
      "optimistic_value": 6.9,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 6.6,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:13.311211Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.313117,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.5639999999999996,
      "optimistic_value": 2.55,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:09.467393Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.2678702,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-ec9d6cd13e48",
      "realistic_value": 1.4,
      "optimistic_value": 1.4,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Pit Viper",
      "conservative_value": 1.16,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:33:23.454134Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec9d6cd13e48.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_447e43db232aa6372c629e63",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.3,
      "skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
      "listing_id": "510738989040370582",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
      "market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:15.707226Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605889841763211",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:20.918131Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "512990789045324795",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:20.918131Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.46,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "521997988016181858",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:59.960439Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "501731789730622481",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:18.670364Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "502857689862889576",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:59.960439Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "517494336189226390",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:01.710864Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.54,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "497228137697395481",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:59.960439Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.6,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "493850438107199332",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:07.974238Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.61,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "526501587737763809",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:07.974238Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-italy:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Italy Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 35.0% $13.92 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Pit Viper 30.0% $1.40	$13.92 +75.0%	$9.43 +18.6%	70.0%	+67.0%	$7.95	—
The Italy Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 30.0% $13.92 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Pit Viper 40.0% $1.40	$13.92 +93.3%	$8.28 +15.0%	60.0%	+78.8%	$7.20	—