The Italy Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred +4.3%Factory New -11.7%Well-Worn -25.0%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Full Stop

1x $0.21

Fraise Crane

2x $0.35

Warm Blooded

5x $0.36

Sky Mandala

2x $0.40

↓

Possible Outputs

Exothermic

45.0% $9.85

Sleeping Potion

45.0% $2.17

Pit Viper

10.0% $1.40

Max Win

$9.85 (+85.2%)

EV (ROI %)

$5.55 (+4.3%)

Win %

45.0%

Volatility

+73.2%

Cost

$5.32

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $5.32

Ask Price EV $5.55 (+4.3%)

Bid Price EV $4.00 (-24.8%)

Ask Profit $0.23 (+4.3%)

Bid Profit $-1.32 (-24.8%)

Liquidity Gap $1.55 (+29.1%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.23

Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.32

Risk

Win Probability 45.0%

Loss Probability 55.0%

Best Case $9.85 (+85.2%)

Worst Case $1.40 (-73.7%)

Volatility +73.2%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 55.0%

Avg Win +$4.53

Avg Loss -$3.29

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.40 (-73.7%)

Std Dev $3.90

Avg Norm Float 0.5430

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 14m

Oldest Output Price 144h 10m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Sawed-Off | Full Stop

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.21 Float: HIDDEN

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.35 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

—

Well-Worn

$0.43 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.46 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.49 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$1.05 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Minimal Wear

$1.07 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 27S //TOTAL COST $5.32 //ASK PRICE EV $5.55 //BID PRICE EV $4.00 //ASK PROFIT $0.23 (+4.3%) //BID PROFIT $-1.32 (-24.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +73.2% //

Possible Outputs · 3

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 1,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 9,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.380086,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 9.8505,
      "optimistic_value": 9.77,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 6.64,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.380086,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.1715,
      "optimistic_value": 2.14,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 1.99,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:55.782048Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.3080516,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-ec9d6cd13e48",
      "realistic_value": 1.4,
      "optimistic_value": 1.4,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Pit Viper",
      "conservative_value": 1.16,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:33:23.454134Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec9d6cd13e48.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_447e43db232aa6372c629e63",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.21,
      "skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
      "listing_id": "506235389468609052",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
      "market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:32.306193Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "525375688036657555",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.676723Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "510738989040015694",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:31.782552Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "508487189339587610",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:30.625958Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.43,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "502857689862651292",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:29.439634Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.46,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "499479989896979941",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:43.018740Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472790737290515",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:43.018740Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "494976390476927238",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:46.048994Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.05,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "494975741590866474",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:43.018740Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.07,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "496102290328584671",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:35.163110Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-italy:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Italy Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.17 Pit Viper 30.0% $1.40	$9.85 +167.7%	$4.63 +25.8%	35.0%	+104.5%	$3.68	—
The Italy Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.17 Pit Viper 40.0% $1.40	$9.85 +186.4%	$4.17 +21.1%	30.0%	+108.6%	$3.44	—