The Italy Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Full Stop
1x $2.48
Warm Blooded
6x $1.26
Earth Mandala
2x $2.30
Sky Mandala
1x $3.96
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
45.0% $26.56
Sleeping Potion
45.0% $24.63
Pit Viper
10.0% $2.58
Max Win
$26.56 (-1.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$23.29 (-13.4%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+25.9%
Cost
$26.89
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $26.89
Ask Price EV $23.29 (-13.4%)
Bid Price EV $21.96 (-18.3%)
Ask Profit $-3.60 (-13.4%)
Bid Profit $-4.93 (-18.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.33 (+5.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.60
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.93
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $26.56 (-1.2%)
Worst Case $2.58 (-90.4%)
Volatility +25.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$3.60
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.58 (-90.4%)
Std Dev $6.96
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 144h 23m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Full Stop
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 07M 16S //TOTAL COST $26.89 //ASK PRICE EV $23.29 //BID PRICE EV $21.96 //ASK PROFIT $-3.60 (-13.4%) //BID PROFIT $-4.93 (-18.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $26.56 //VOLATILITY +25.9% //
Possible Outputs · 3
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS
45.0%
$26.56
-$0.34
-1.2%
$26.03
-$0.86
-3.2%
$0.52
2.0%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$24.63
-$2.26
-8.4%
$22.28
-$4.61
-17.1%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.58
-$24.31
-90.4%
$2.20
-$24.69
-91.8%
$0.38
14.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.048943999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.555,
"optimistic_value": 26.45,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:59.580467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.048943999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1093664,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec9d6cd13e48",
"realistic_value": 2.5839999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.57,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pit Viper",
"conservative_value": 2.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:36:50.793265Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec9d6cd13e48.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_447e43db232aa6372c629e63",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
"listing_id": "722406200553464594",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:24.594594Z"
},
{
"price": 1.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738823413937978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:25.410174Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605889841715799",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.706690Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "501731789729270537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:25.714476Z"
},
{
"price": 4.02,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526500790836642953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:23.355962Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-italy:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.92 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Pit Viper 30.0% $1.40 | $13.92 +75.0% | $9.43 +18.6% | 70.0% | +67.0% | $7.95 | — |
The Italy Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.92 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Pit Viper 40.0% $1.40 | $13.92 +93.3% | $8.28 +15.0% | 60.0% | +78.8% | $7.20 | — |