The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×1
Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Amberline
3x $3.18
Urban Sovereign
5x $3.64
Galigator
1x $7.29
Virus
1x $4.60
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
30.0% $126.41
Corticera
2.5% $67.93
Corticera
2.5% $51.15
Bloomstick
2.5% $38.43
Bengal Tiger
2.5% $28.38
Kintsugi
30.0% $23.12
Max Win
$126.41 (+151.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$55.88 (+11.2%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+93.4%
Cost
$50.27
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $50.27
Ask Price EV $55.88 (+11.2%)
Bid Price EV $49.78 (-1.0%)
Ask Profit $5.61 (+11.2%)
Bid Profit $-0.49 (-1.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $6.10 (+12.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$5.61
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.49
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $126.41 (+151.5%)
Worst Case $21.23 (-57.8%)
Volatility +93.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 62.5%
Avg Win +$66.59
Avg Loss -$27.23
Bottom 5% Outcome $21.23 (-57.8%)
Std Dev $46.96
Avg Norm Float 0.1494
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 142h 31m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.64 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$4.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.64 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$7.29 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Virus
—
Field-Tested
$4.60 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 04M 46S //TOTAL COST $50.27 //ASK PRICE EV $55.88 //BID PRICE EV $49.78 //ASK PROFIT $5.61 (+11.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.49 (-1.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +93.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$126.41
+$76.14
+151.5%
$112.39
+$62.12
+123.6%
$14.02
11.1%
—
WIN
2.5%
$67.93
+$17.66
+35.1%
$59.24
+$8.97
+17.8%
$8.69
12.8%
—
PAPER WIN
2.5%
$51.15
+$0.88
+1.7%
$45.03
-$5.24
-10.4%
$6.12
12.0%
—
LOSS
2.5%
$38.43
-$11.84
-23.5%
$32.25
-$18.02
-35.8%
$6.18
16.1%
—
NUKE
2.5%
$28.38
-$21.89
-43.6%
$25.35
-$24.92
-49.6%
$3.03
10.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$23.12
-$27.15
-54.0%
$20.66
-$29.61
-58.9%
$2.46
10.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$21.23
-$29.04
-57.8%
$19.38
-$30.89
-61.4%
$1.85
8.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-esports-iii|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.14943,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 124,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 112.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.14943,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 23.1245,
"optimistic_value": 22.96,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 20.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:31:38.635309Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.14943,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 21.23,
"optimistic_value": 20.6,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 19.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:31:41.267853Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.1705782,
"output_skin_id": "skin-571dcb1f6c86",
"realistic_value": 28.3755,
"optimistic_value": 26.79,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Bengal Tiger",
"conservative_value": 25.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:31:49.161388Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-571dcb1f6c86.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0958632,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0203eae8335",
"realistic_value": 67.932,
"optimistic_value": 64.74,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Corticera",
"conservative_value": 59.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:28:46.773981Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0203eae8335.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.1705782,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2779230030e",
"realistic_value": 38.434,
"optimistic_value": 37.72,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Bloomstick",
"conservative_value": 32.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:31:44.774691Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2779230030e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0958632,
"output_skin_id": "skin-daaabfa27042",
"realistic_value": 51.147999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 49.58,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Corticera",
"conservative_value": 45.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:27:02.526208Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-daaabfa27042.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_43b5d6a8d863c082d2f8cfdb",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.18,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "502857689861474128",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:05.967617Z"
},
{
"price": 3.64,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "498354037510570279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:27.092707Z"
},
{
"price": 4.67,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "508487023588144070",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:05.967617Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605889840023871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
},
{
"price": 4.75,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "521997988014719718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
},
{
"price": 6.64,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182346589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:52.879933Z"
},
{
"price": 7.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "524249787960966687",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:29.954532Z"
},
{
"price": 4.6,
"skin_id": "skin-7ee5e2765bfa",
"listing_id": "525375688036212955",
"collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Virus",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7ee5e2765bfa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:15.824476Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-37:9+collection-set-esports-iii:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Bloomstick 2.5% $96.81 Corticera 2.5% $67.93 Kintsugi 30.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 30.0% $61.47 Corticera 2.5% $51.15 | $290.04 +193.0% | $131.76 +33.1% | 30.0% | +104.0% | $99.00 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Corticera 2.5% $64.11 Crane Flight 30.0% $63.86 Corticera 2.5% $51.96 Bloomstick 2.5% $38.43 Bengal Tiger 2.5% $28.38 Kintsugi 30.0% $12.65 | $64.11 +137.2% | $31.10 +15.1% | 40.0% | +79.7% | $27.03 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Bloomstick 5.0% $96.81 Corticera 5.0% $67.93 Kintsugi 26.7% $65.51 Deathgaze 26.7% $61.47 Corticera 5.0% $51.15 | $290.04 +177.9% | $124.52 +19.3% | 26.7% | +94.7% | $104.38 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Bloomstick 7.5% $96.81 Corticera 7.5% $67.93 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Corticera 7.5% $51.15 | $290.04 +162.5% | $117.27 +6.1% | 23.3% | +85.2% | $110.51 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Jaguar  10.0% $1,153.99 Queen's Gambit  40.0% $843.46 Bullet Rain  10.0% $492.88 Fully Tuned  40.0% $484.90 | $1,153.99 +104.0% | $696.03 +23.0% | 50.0% | +40.2% | $565.65 | — |