The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×1
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Urban Sovereign
8x $4.72
Galigator
1x $7.29
Virus
1x $9.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
30.0% $290.04
Bloomstick
2.5% $96.81
Corticera
2.5% $67.93
Kintsugi
30.0% $65.51
Deathgaze
30.0% $61.47
Corticera
2.5% $51.15
Max Win
$290.04 (+193.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$131.76 (+33.1%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+104.9%
Cost
$99.00
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $99.00
Ask Price EV $131.76 (+33.1%)
Bid Price EV $107.18 (+8.3%)
Ask Profit $32.76 (+33.1%)
Bid Profit $8.18 (+8.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $24.58 (+24.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$32.76
Bid Slippage Buffer +$8.18
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $290.04 (+193.0%)
Worst Case $50.34 (-49.2%)
Volatility +104.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 67.5%
Avg Win +$191.04
Avg Loss -$35.08
Bottom 5% Outcome $51.15 (-48.3%)
Std Dev $103.81
Avg Norm Float 0.0694
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 141h 29m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$7.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$13.68 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$17.66 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Virus
—
Minimal Wear
$9.32 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 45S //TOTAL COST $99.00 //ASK PRICE EV $131.76 //BID PRICE EV $107.18 //ASK PROFIT $32.76 (+33.1%) //BID PROFIT $8.18 (+8.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +104.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$290.04
+$191.04
+193.0%
$229.11
+$130.11
+131.4%
$60.93
21.0%
—
LOSS THIN BID
2.5%
$96.81
-$2.19
-2.2%
$57.55
-$41.45
-41.9%
$39.26
40.6%
—
LOSS
2.5%
$67.93
-$31.07
-31.4%
$59.24
-$39.76
-40.2%
$8.69
12.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$65.51
-$33.49
-33.8%
$55.11
-$43.89
-44.3%
$10.40
15.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$61.47
-$37.53
-37.9%
$55.38
-$43.62
-44.1%
$6.09
9.9%
—
NUKE
2.5%
$51.15
-$47.85
-48.3%
$45.03
-$53.97
-54.5%
$6.12
12.0%
—
NUKE
2.5%
$50.34
-$48.66
-49.2%
$50.34
-$48.66
-49.2%
$0.00
0.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-esports-iii|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06936,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06936,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 65.5065,
"optimistic_value": 64.74,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.081354Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06936,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 61.465999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 59.66,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 55.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:09.820512Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.11132639999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-571dcb1f6c86",
"realistic_value": 50.34,
"optimistic_value": 169.69,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Bengal Tiger",
"conservative_value": 50.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T21:51:14.209649Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-571dcb1f6c86.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0766464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0203eae8335",
"realistic_value": 67.932,
"optimistic_value": 64.74,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Corticera",
"conservative_value": 59.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:28:46.773981Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0203eae8335.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.11132639999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2779230030e",
"realistic_value": 96.81,
"optimistic_value": 92.26,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Bloomstick",
"conservative_value": 57.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T15:48:44.696944Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2779230030e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0766464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-daaabfa27042",
"realistic_value": 51.147999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 49.58,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Corticera",
"conservative_value": 45.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:27:02.526208Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-daaabfa27042.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_43b5d6a8d863c082d2f8cfdb",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605889840023871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z"
},
{
"price": 4.75,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "521997988014719718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z"
},
{
"price": 7.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "524249787960966687",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:56.622316Z"
},
{
"price": 13.68,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "518620288314054676",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:03.139906Z"
},
{
"price": 15.3,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "518619491430346084",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:03.139906Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:03.139906Z"
},
{
"price": 17.66,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506234592361187964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:03.139906Z"
},
{
"price": 9.32,
"skin_id": "skin-7ee5e2765bfa",
"listing_id": "497228024530111973",
"collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Virus",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7ee5e2765bfa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:40:25.873952Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-37:9+collection-set-esports-iii:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Corticera 2.5% $64.11 Crane Flight 30.0% $63.86 Corticera 2.5% $51.96 Bloomstick 2.5% $38.43 Bengal Tiger 2.5% $28.38 Kintsugi 30.0% $12.65 | $64.11 +137.2% | $31.10 +15.1% | 40.0% | +79.7% | $27.03 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $126.41 Corticera 2.5% $67.93 Corticera 2.5% $51.15 Bloomstick 2.5% $38.43 Bengal Tiger 2.5% $28.38 Kintsugi 30.0% $23.12 | $126.41 +151.5% | $55.88 +11.2% | 35.0% | +85.4% | $50.27 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Bloomstick 5.0% $96.81 Corticera 5.0% $67.93 Kintsugi 26.7% $65.51 Deathgaze 26.7% $61.47 Corticera 5.0% $51.15 | $290.04 +180.3% | $124.52 +20.3% | 26.7% | +95.5% | $103.48 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Bloomstick 7.5% $96.81 Corticera 7.5% $67.93 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Corticera 7.5% $51.15 | $290.04 +166.5% | $117.27 +7.8% | 23.3% | +86.5% | $108.83 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Jaguar  10.0% $1,153.99 Queen's Gambit  40.0% $843.46 Bullet Rain  10.0% $492.88 Fully Tuned  40.0% $484.90 | $1,153.99 +104.0% | $696.03 +23.0% | 50.0% | +40.2% | $565.65 | — |