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The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×1

Restricted → Classified BS ST 10 items
Battle-Scarred -4.9%Factory New +33.1%Field-Tested +15.1%Minimal Wear +11.2%Well-Worn -5.6%
Contract
Restricted → Classified Battle-Scarred StatTrak™
Inputs
Amberline
MP7 | Amberline
9x $2.00
Virus
P90 | Virus
1x $4.45
↓
Possible Outputs
Corticera
AWP | Corticera
2.5% $64.11
Corticera
P2000 | Corticera
2.5% $51.96
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
30.0% $46.25
Bloomstick
Nova | Bloomstick
2.5% $41.43
Bengal Tiger
AUG | Bengal Tiger
2.5% $40.09
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
30.0% $9.34
Max Win
$64.11 (+154.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$24.00 (-4.9%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+75.6%
Cost
$25.23
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $25.23
Ask Price EV $24.00 (-4.9%)
Bid Price EV $21.85 (-13.4%)
Ask Profit $-1.23 (-4.9%)
Bid Profit $-3.38 (-13.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.15 (+8.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.23
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.38
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $64.11 (+154.1%)
Worst Case $7.94 (-68.5%)
Volatility +75.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$21.81
Avg Loss -$16.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $7.94 (-68.5%)
Std Dev $19.09
Avg Norm Float 0.5216
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 11m
Oldest Output Price 142h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)
$2.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)
$2.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)
$2.33 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)
$3.18 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Virus
—
Battle-Scarred
StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Battle-Scarred)
$4.45 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 04M 45S //TOTAL COST $25.23 //ASK PRICE EV $24.00 //BID PRICE EV $21.85 //ASK PROFIT $-1.23 (-4.9%) //BID PROFIT $-3.38 (-13.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $64.11 //VOLATILITY +75.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
      "item_count": 9,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-esports-iii|Restricted|stattrak",
      "item_count": 1,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.52162,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
      "realistic_value": 46.253,
      "optimistic_value": 46.05,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
      "conservative_value": 43.83,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:48.770872Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.52162,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
      "realistic_value": 9.34,
      "optimistic_value": 9.34,
      "output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
      "conservative_value": 9.31,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.600372Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.52162,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "realistic_value": 7.9365000000000006,
      "optimistic_value": 7.87,
      "output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "conservative_value": 7.84,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:32.262723Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.025,
      "output_float": 0.4459988,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-571dcb1f6c86",
      "realistic_value": 40.088499999999996,
      "optimistic_value": 33.19,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Bengal Tiger",
      "conservative_value": 21.01,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:17:05.482637Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-571dcb1f6c86.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.025,
      "output_float": 0.1851888,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d0203eae8335",
      "realistic_value": 64.113,
      "optimistic_value": 61.11,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Corticera",
      "conservative_value": 51.2,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:14:46.747280Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0203eae8335.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.025,
      "output_float": 0.4459988,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f2779230030e",
      "realistic_value": 41.43,
      "optimistic_value": 153.14,
      "output_full_name": "Nova | Bloomstick",
      "conservative_value": 27.62,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:26:52.593322Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2779230030e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.025,
      "output_float": 0.1851888,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-daaabfa27042",
      "realistic_value": 51.963,
      "optimistic_value": 51.83,
      "output_full_name": "P2000 | Corticera",
      "conservative_value": 42.29,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:26:51.584662Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-daaabfa27042.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_43b5d6a8d863c082d2f8cfdb",
  "input_rarity": "Restricted",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 2,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "521997988015841622",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:44.357117Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.08,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "507361289452694821",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:44.357117Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.09,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "514116688949678190",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:44.357117Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.15,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "490472738292168531",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:44.357117Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.3,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "525375635593980187",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:28.228501Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "505109489448722396",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:28.228501Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.33,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "507361237008630373",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:28.228501Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "492724538182385829",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:28.228501Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "502857689861474128",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:05.967617Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.45,
      "skin_id": "skin-7ee5e2765bfa",
      "listing_id": "510738823412207926",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Virus",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7ee5e2765bfa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:02.215990Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Classified",
  "stattrak_mode": true,
  "composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-37:9+collection-set-esports-iii:1"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×1
Restricted → Classified Factory New ST
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
30.0% $290.04
Bloomstick
Nova | Bloomstick
2.5% $96.81
Corticera
AWP | Corticera
2.5% $67.93
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
30.0% $65.51
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
30.0% $61.47
Corticera
P2000 | Corticera
2.5% $51.15
$290.04
+193.0%
$131.76
+33.1%
30.0%+104.0%$99.00—
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×1
Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST
Corticera
AWP | Corticera
2.5% $64.11
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
30.0% $63.86
Corticera
P2000 | Corticera
2.5% $51.96
Bloomstick
Nova | Bloomstick
2.5% $38.43
Bengal Tiger
AUG | Bengal Tiger
2.5% $28.38
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
30.0% $12.65
$64.11
+137.2%
$31.10
+15.1%
40.0%+79.7%$27.03—
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×1
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
30.0% $126.41
Corticera
AWP | Corticera
2.5% $67.93
Corticera
P2000 | Corticera
2.5% $51.15
Bloomstick
Nova | Bloomstick
2.5% $38.43
Bengal Tiger
AUG | Bengal Tiger
2.5% $28.38
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
30.0% $23.12
$126.41
+151.5%
$55.88
+11.2%
35.0%+85.4%$50.27—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×2
Restricted → Classified Factory New ST
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
26.7% $290.04
Bloomstick
Nova | Bloomstick
5.0% $96.81
Corticera
AWP | Corticera
5.0% $67.93
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
26.7% $65.51
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
26.7% $61.47
Corticera
P2000 | Corticera
5.0% $51.15
$290.04
+177.9%
$124.52
+19.3%
26.7%+94.7%$104.38—
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×3
Restricted → Classified Factory New ST
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
23.3% $290.04
Bloomstick
Nova | Bloomstick
7.5% $96.81
Corticera
AWP | Corticera
7.5% $67.93
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
23.3% $65.51
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
23.3% $61.47
Corticera
P2000 | Corticera
7.5% $51.15
$290.04
+162.5%
$117.27
+6.1%
23.3%+85.2%$110.51—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×2
Classified → Covert Factory New ST
Jaguar
AK-47 | Jaguar
10.0% $1,153.99
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
40.0% $843.46
Bullet Rain
M4A4 | Bullet Rain
10.0% $492.88
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
40.0% $484.90
$1,153.99
+104.0%
$696.03
+23.0%
50.0%+40.2%$565.65—
FS

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