The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×1
Restricted → Classified FT ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Amberline
7x $2.08
Urban Sovereign
2x $3.19
Virus
1x $4.60
↓
Possible Outputs
Corticera
2.5% $64.11
Crane Flight
30.0% $63.86
Corticera
2.5% $51.96
Bloomstick
2.5% $38.43
Bengal Tiger
2.5% $28.38
Kintsugi
30.0% $12.65
Max Win
$64.11 (+137.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$31.10 (+15.1%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+88.6%
Cost
$27.03
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $27.03
Ask Price EV $31.10 (+15.1%)
Bid Price EV $27.60 (+2.1%)
Ask Profit $4.07 (+15.1%)
Bid Profit $0.57 (+2.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.50 (+12.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.07
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.57
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $64.11 (+137.2%)
Worst Case $11.91 (-55.9%)
Volatility +88.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$32.29
Avg Loss -$14.75
Bottom 5% Outcome $11.91 (-55.9%)
Std Dev $23.96
Avg Norm Float 0.3764
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 142h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.33 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.64 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Virus
—
Field-Tested
$4.60 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 04M 47S //TOTAL COST $27.03 //ASK PRICE EV $31.10 //BID PRICE EV $27.60 //ASK PROFIT $4.07 (+15.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.57 (+2.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $64.11 //VOLATILITY +88.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$64.11
+$37.08
+137.2%
$51.20
+$24.17
+89.4%
$12.91
20.1%
—
BIG WIN
30.0%
$63.86
+$36.83
+136.3%
$60.32
+$33.29
+123.2%
$3.54
5.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$51.96
+$24.93
+92.2%
$42.29
+$15.26
+56.5%
$9.67
18.6%
—
WIN
2.5%
$38.43
+$11.40
+42.2%
$32.25
+$5.22
+19.3%
$6.18
16.1%
—
PAPER WIN
2.5%
$28.38
+$1.35
+5.0%
$25.35
-$1.68
-6.2%
$3.03
10.7%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$12.65
-$14.38
-53.2%
$9.57
-$17.46
-64.6%
$3.08
24.4%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$11.91
-$15.12
-55.9%
$9.52
-$17.51
-64.8%
$2.39
20.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-esports-iii|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.37635,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 63.8595,
"optimistic_value": 63.52,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 60.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.600521Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.37635,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 12.650500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.57,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 9.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:01.279472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.37635,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 11.913,
"optimistic_value": 11.78,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 9.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:28.566049Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.338499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-571dcb1f6c86",
"realistic_value": 28.3755,
"optimistic_value": 26.79,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Bengal Tiger",
"conservative_value": 25.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:31:49.161388Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-571dcb1f6c86.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.150324,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0203eae8335",
"realistic_value": 64.113,
"optimistic_value": 61.11,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Corticera",
"conservative_value": 51.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:14:46.747280Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0203eae8335.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.338499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2779230030e",
"realistic_value": 38.434,
"optimistic_value": 37.72,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Bloomstick",
"conservative_value": 32.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:31:44.774691Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2779230030e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.150324,
"output_skin_id": "skin-daaabfa27042",
"realistic_value": 51.963,
"optimistic_value": 51.83,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Corticera",
"conservative_value": 42.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The eSports 2014 Summer Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:26:51.584662Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-daaabfa27042.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_43b5d6a8d863c082d2f8cfdb",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361289452694821",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:44.357117Z"
},
{
"price": 2.09,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "514116688949678190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:44.357117Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "490472738292168531",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:44.357117Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "525375635593980187",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:28.228501Z"
},
{
"price": 2.31,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "505109489448722396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:28.228501Z"
},
{
"price": 2.33,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361237008630373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:28.228501Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182385829",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:28.228501Z"
},
{
"price": 3.19,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "493850490550002916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:27.092707Z"
},
{
"price": 3.64,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "498354037510570279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:27.092707Z"
},
{
"price": 4.6,
"skin_id": "skin-7ee5e2765bfa",
"listing_id": "525375688036212955",
"collection_id": "collection-set-esports-iii",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Virus",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7ee5e2765bfa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:15.824476Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-37:9+collection-set-esports-iii:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Bloomstick 2.5% $96.81 Corticera 2.5% $67.93 Kintsugi 30.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 30.0% $61.47 Corticera 2.5% $51.15 | $290.04 +193.0% | $131.76 +33.1% | 30.0% | +104.0% | $99.00 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $126.41 Corticera 2.5% $67.93 Corticera 2.5% $51.15 Bloomstick 2.5% $38.43 Bengal Tiger 2.5% $28.38 Kintsugi 30.0% $23.12 | $126.41 +151.5% | $55.88 +11.2% | 35.0% | +85.4% | $50.27 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Bloomstick 5.0% $96.81 Corticera 5.0% $67.93 Kintsugi 26.7% $65.51 Deathgaze 26.7% $61.47 Corticera 5.0% $51.15 | $290.04 +177.9% | $124.52 +19.3% | 26.7% | +94.7% | $104.38 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Bloomstick 7.5% $96.81 Corticera 7.5% $67.93 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Corticera 7.5% $51.15 | $290.04 +162.5% | $117.27 +6.1% | 23.3% | +85.2% | $110.51 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The eSports 2014 Summer Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Jaguar  10.0% $1,153.99 Queen's Gambit  40.0% $843.46 Bullet Rain  10.0% $492.88 Fully Tuned  40.0% $484.90 | $1,153.99 +104.0% | $696.03 +23.0% | 50.0% | +40.2% | $565.65 | — |