The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Pipsqueak
1x $0.34
Metallic Squeezer
1x $0.39
Teal Graf
2x $0.40
Aeolian Light
3x $0.25
Grip Tape
2x $0.34
The Daily Deagle
1x $0.38
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $5.85
Monster Melt
13.3% $4.12
Eye of Zapems
13.3% $4.08
Sweet Little Angels
13.3% $4.07
Trace Lock
30.0% $2.22
Max Win
$5.85 (+68.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.06 (+16.6%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+40.4%
Cost
$3.48
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.48
Ask Price EV $4.06 (+16.6%)
Bid Price EV $3.71 (+6.6%)
Ask Profit $0.58 (+16.6%)
Bid Profit $0.23 (+6.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.35 (+10.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.58
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.23
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+68.1%)
Worst Case $2.22 (-36.1%)
Volatility +40.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$1.37
Avg Loss -$1.26
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.22 (-36.1%)
Std Dev $1.41
Avg Norm Float 0.4409
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 142h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 41S //TOTAL COST $3.48 //ASK PRICE EV $4.06 //BID PRICE EV $3.71 //ASK PROFIT $0.58 (+16.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.23 (+6.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +40.4% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$5.85
+$2.37
+68.1%
$4.91
+$1.43
+41.1%
$0.94
16.1%
—
WIN
13.3%
$4.12
+$0.64
+18.4%
$3.94
+$0.46
+13.2%
$0.18
4.4%
—
WIN
13.3%
$4.08
+$0.60
+17.2%
$4.00
+$0.52
+14.9%
$0.08
2.0%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Field-Tested | ƒ 0.3615462
The Overpass 2024 Collection
WIN
13.3%
$4.07
+$0.59
+17.1%
$4.02
+$0.54
+15.5%
$0.05
1.3%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$2.22
-$1.26
-36.1%
$2.14
-$1.34
-38.5%
$0.08
3.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.3306825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.308637,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.222,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:40.425168Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.37477350000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 4.08,
"optimistic_value": 4.08,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:40.538762Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.3615462,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 4.0735,
"optimistic_value": 4.07,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 4.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:55.001241Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.3306825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 4.1205,
"optimistic_value": 4.04,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 3.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:52.339007Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_41de11711850668ba4570138",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "528753387757469169",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:54.030745Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "519746188258421540",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:14.738805Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "503983589619426907",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:14:05.152171Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "491598638254867202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:14:05.152171Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488725919454",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:20:08.033860Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "499479989896498261",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:23.546908Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "501731789729548997",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:23.546908Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "529879287551439756",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:54.250205Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.60 Trace Lock 30.0% $3.20 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.11 | $6.12 +86.5% | $4.22 +28.6% | 56.7% | +38.8% | $3.28 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.16 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.50 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.52 | $12.25 +63.0% | $8.95 +19.2% | 70.0% | +41.6% | $7.51 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $27.45 Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $25.66 Monster Melt 13.3% $20.12 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.79 | $27.45 +30.3% | $22.28 +5.7% | 56.7% | +25.6% | $21.07 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 35.0% $6.12 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $3.60 Trace Lock 35.0% $3.20 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.11 | $6.12 +88.2% | $4.33 +33.1% | 55.0% | +41.1% | $3.25 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 25.0% $6.12 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $3.60 Trace Lock 25.0% $3.20 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.11 | $6.12 +83.7% | $4.11 +23.4% | 58.3% | +35.9% | $3.33 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Eye of Zapems 3.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 3.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 3.3% $3.60 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.19 | $6.12 +75.8% | $4.13 +18.8% | 55.0% | +53.7% | $3.48 | — |