The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Pipsqueak
2x $0.42
Teal Graf
1x $0.74
Metallic Squeezer
1x $1.03
The Daily Deagle
2x $0.38
Aeolian Light
2x $0.70
Grip Tape
2x $0.85
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $12.25
Eye of Zapems
13.3% $10.72
Sweet Little Angels
13.3% $10.16
Monster Melt
13.3% $8.50
Trace Lock
30.0% $4.52
Max Win
$12.25 (+63.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.95 (+19.2%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+41.6%
Cost
$7.51
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.51
Ask Price EV $8.95 (+19.2%)
Bid Price EV $8.47 (+12.8%)
Ask Profit $1.44 (+19.2%)
Bid Profit $0.96 (+12.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.48 (+6.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.44
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.96
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+63.0%)
Worst Case $4.52 (-39.8%)
Volatility +41.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$3.34
Avg Loss -$2.99
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.52 (-39.8%)
Std Dev $3.13
Avg Norm Float 0.1758
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 143h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Minimal Wear
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 20S //TOTAL COST $7.51 //ASK PRICE EV $8.95 //BID PRICE EV $8.47 //ASK PROFIT $1.44 (+19.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.96 (+12.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +41.6% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$12.25
+$4.74
+63.0%
$11.36
+$3.85
+51.3%
$0.89
7.2%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$10.72
+$3.21
+42.8%
$10.49
+$2.98
+39.7%
$0.23
2.2%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Minimal Wear | ƒ 0.1441806
The Overpass 2024 Collection
WIN
13.3%
$10.16
+$2.65
+35.3%
$10.00
+$2.49
+33.2%
$0.16
1.6%
—
SMALL WIN
13.3%
$8.50
+$0.99
+13.1%
$8.25
+$0.74
+9.9%
$0.25
2.9%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$4.52
-$2.99
-39.8%
$4.10
-$3.41
-45.4%
$0.42
9.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.1318725,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.12308099999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.522,
"optimistic_value": 4.48,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:33.281426Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1494555,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 10.724499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 10.7,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 10.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:11.503624Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1441806,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 10.1645,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 10,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:09.037308Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1318725,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 8.497,
"optimistic_value": 8.28,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 8.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:32.374061Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_41de11711850668ba4570138",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "517494388633440706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:11:17.829941Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "509613089303435079",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:11:17.829941Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "523123835627757262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:52.689426Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "596305411430770513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:24.836819Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "529879287551439756",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:54.250205Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "519746188258807568",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:03.005323Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "524249735517927411",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:00.003899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "506235337025136948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:00.003899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:03.005323Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "514116688950130098",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:23.922651Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.60 Trace Lock 30.0% $3.20 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.11 | $6.12 +86.5% | $4.22 +28.6% | 56.7% | +38.8% | $3.28 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Monster Melt 13.3% $4.12 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $4.08 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $4.07 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.22 | $5.85 +68.1% | $4.06 +16.6% | 70.0% | +40.4% | $3.48 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $27.45 Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $25.66 Monster Melt 13.3% $20.12 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.79 | $27.45 +30.3% | $22.28 +5.7% | 56.7% | +25.6% | $21.07 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 35.0% $6.12 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $3.60 Trace Lock 35.0% $3.20 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.11 | $6.12 +88.2% | $4.33 +33.1% | 55.0% | +41.1% | $3.25 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 25.0% $6.12 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $3.60 Trace Lock 25.0% $3.20 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.11 | $6.12 +83.7% | $4.11 +23.4% | 58.3% | +35.9% | $3.33 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Eye of Zapems 3.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 3.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 3.3% $3.60 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.19 | $6.12 +75.8% | $4.13 +18.8% | 55.0% | +53.7% | $3.48 | — |