The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Pipsqueak
2x $0.34
Wurst Hölle
1x $0.36
Metallic Squeezer
1x $0.39
Aeolian Light
5x $0.25
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $6.12
Monster Melt
13.3% $3.97
Sweet Little Angels
13.3% $3.60
Trace Lock
30.0% $3.20
Eye of Zapems
13.3% $3.12
Max Win
$6.12 (+86.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.22 (+28.6%)
Win %
56.7%
Volatility
+38.7%
Cost
$3.28
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.28
Ask Price EV $4.22 (+28.6%)
Bid Price EV $3.61 (+10.1%)
Ask Profit $0.94 (+28.6%)
Bid Profit $0.33 (+10.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.61 (+18.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.94
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.33
Risk
Win Probability 56.7%
Loss Probability 43.3%
Best Case $6.12 (+86.5%)
Worst Case $3.12 (-4.8%)
Volatility +38.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$1.74
Avg Loss -$0.11
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.12 (-4.8%)
Std Dev $1.27
Avg Norm Float 0.5473
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 142h 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 02M 26S //TOTAL COST $3.28 //ASK PRICE EV $4.22 //BID PRICE EV $3.61 //ASK PROFIT $0.94 (+28.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.33 (+10.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 56.7% //BEST CASE $6.12 //VOLATILITY +38.7% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$6.12
+$2.84
+86.5%
$5.33
+$2.05
+62.5%
$0.79
12.9%
—
WIN
13.3%
$3.97
+$0.69
+21.0%
$3.48
+$0.20
+6.1%
$0.49
12.3%
—
PAPER WIN
13.3%
$3.60
+$0.31
+9.6%
$3.28
-$0.00
-0.0%
$0.32
8.8%
—
LOSS THIN BID
30.0%
$3.20
-$0.08
-2.5%
$2.35
-$0.93
-28.4%
$0.85
26.5%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$3.12
-$0.16
-4.8%
$3.05
-$0.23
-7.0%
$0.07
2.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.41046750000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 6.1165,
"optimistic_value": 5.91,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 5.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:27.628648Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.383103,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 3.1965,
"optimistic_value": 3.06,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:58.816197Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.4651965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 3.121,
"optimistic_value": 3.1,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:18:59.185077Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.4487778,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 3.595,
"optimistic_value": 3.49,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 3.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:18.370901Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.41046750000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 3.9675000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 3.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T14:41:55.011379Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_41de11711850668ba4570138",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "528753387757469169",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:22.863998Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "517494388633336414",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:22.863998Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "528753387757470537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:12.686627Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "519746188258421540",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:39.539301Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:15.516733Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:15.516733Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "508487136897723158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:15.516733Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490550151956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:15.516733Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "500605889841196571",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:44.720257Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "498354089953069411",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:11.788201Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.42 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.68 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.48 | $12.25 +61.8% | $9.00 +18.9% | 70.0% | +41.8% | $7.57 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 13.3% $4.11 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $4.05 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.24 | $5.85 +63.9% | $4.09 +14.6% | 70.0% | +39.3% | $3.57 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $27.47 Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $25.66 Monster Melt 13.3% $20.12 Trace Lock 30.0% $15.24 | $27.47 +35.3% | $22.42 +10.4% | 56.7% | +25.6% | $20.30 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 35.0% $6.12 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Trace Lock 35.0% $3.20 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.11 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $2.91 | $6.12 +90.5% | $4.26 +32.7% | 45.0% | +43.2% | $3.21 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 25.0% $6.12 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $3.60 Trace Lock 25.0% $3.20 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.12 | $6.12 +84.2% | $4.11 +23.8% | 58.3% | +36.0% | $3.32 | — |