The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Wurst Hölle
2x $1.17
Teal Graf
1x $2.18
Metallic Squeezer
1x $2.33
Aeolian Light
3x $0.94
Creep
1x $1.43
The Daily Deagle
2x $3.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
13.3% $27.45
Breakthrough
30.0% $26.93
Sweet Little Angels
13.3% $25.66
Monster Melt
13.3% $20.12
Trace Lock
30.0% $14.79
Max Win
$27.45 (+30.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$22.28 (+5.7%)
Win %
56.7%
Volatility
+25.6%
Cost
$21.07
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.07
Ask Price EV $22.28 (+5.7%)
Bid Price EV $21.56 (+2.3%)
Ask Profit $1.21 (+5.7%)
Bid Profit $0.49 (+2.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.72 (+3.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.21
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.49
Risk
Win Probability 56.7%
Loss Probability 43.3%
Best Case $27.45 (+30.3%)
Worst Case $14.79 (-29.8%)
Volatility +25.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$5.68
Avg Loss -$4.64
Bottom 5% Outcome $14.79 (-29.8%)
Std Dev $5.39
Avg Norm Float 0.0819
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 27m
Oldest Output Price 68h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Speculative Upside · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.33 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.11 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$4.42 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 19S //TOTAL COST $21.07 //ASK PRICE EV $22.28 //BID PRICE EV $21.56 //ASK PROFIT $1.21 (+5.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.49 (+2.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 56.7% //BEST CASE $27.45 //VOLATILITY +25.6% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$27.45
+$6.38
+30.3%
$26.69
+$5.62
+26.7%
$0.76
2.8%
—
WIN
30.0%
$26.93
+$5.86
+27.8%
$26.63
+$5.56
+26.4%
$0.30
1.1%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.067117
The Overpass 2024 Collection
WIN
13.3%
$25.66
+$4.59
+21.8%
$25.62
+$4.55
+21.6%
$0.04
0.2%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$20.12
-$0.95
-4.5%
$19.85
-$1.22
-5.8%
$0.27
1.3%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$14.79
-$6.28
-29.8%
$13.15
-$7.92
-37.6%
$1.64
11.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.061387500000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.057295,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.789,
"optimistic_value": 14.74,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:03.653054Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06957250000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 27.4545,
"optimistic_value": 27.43,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:37.529360Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.067117,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.061387500000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.116500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 19.98,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:55.086717Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_41de11711850668ba4570138",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "523123888072288378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:29.882823Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "625579418033580202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:29.882823Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "490472790737051835",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:46.747644Z"
},
{
"price": 2.33,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "510738989040407230",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:36.110021Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:03.005323Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:43.493041Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:34.821755Z"
},
{
"price": 2.11,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "510738989040662074",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:34.821755Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:12.484888Z"
},
{
"price": 4.42,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "503982792732383167",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:12.484888Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.60 Trace Lock 30.0% $3.20 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.11 | $6.12 +86.5% | $4.22 +28.6% | 56.7% | +38.8% | $3.28 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.16 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.50 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.52 | $12.25 +63.0% | $8.95 +19.2% | 70.0% | +41.6% | $7.51 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Monster Melt 13.3% $4.12 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $4.08 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $4.07 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.22 | $5.85 +68.1% | $4.06 +16.6% | 70.0% | +40.4% | $3.48 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 35.0% $6.12 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $3.60 Trace Lock 35.0% $3.20 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.11 | $6.12 +88.2% | $4.33 +33.1% | 55.0% | +41.1% | $3.25 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 25.0% $6.12 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $3.60 Trace Lock 25.0% $3.20 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.11 | $6.12 +83.7% | $4.11 +23.4% | 58.3% | +35.9% | $3.33 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Eye of Zapems 3.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 3.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 3.3% $3.60 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.19 | $6.12 +75.8% | $4.13 +18.8% | 55.0% | +53.7% | $3.48 | — |