The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +26.1%Factory New -6.6%Field-Tested +15.7%Minimal Wear +21.5%Well-Worn +9.5%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Cobalt Paisley

2x $0.31

Yeti Camo

1x $0.32

Royal Baroque

3x $0.36

Mint Fan

2x $0.40

Rose Hex

2x $0.32

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

40.0% $6.93

Mulberry

6.7% $5.01

Glitched Paint

6.7% $2.96

Bleeding Edge

6.7% $2.09

Royal Guard

40.0% $1.36

Max Win

$6.93 (+90.4%)

EV (ROI %)

$3.99 (+9.5%)

Win %

46.7%

Volatility

+70.7%

Cost

$3.64

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $3.64

Ask Price EV $3.99 (+9.5%)

Bid Price EV $3.35 (-7.9%)

Ask Profit $0.35 (+9.5%)

Bid Profit $-0.29 (-7.9%)

Liquidity Gap $0.63 (+17.3%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.35

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.29

Risk

Win Probability 46.7%

Loss Probability 53.3%

Best Case $6.93 (+90.4%)

Worst Case $1.36 (-62.7%)

Volatility +70.7%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 46.7%

Avg Win +$3.02

Avg Loss -$1.99

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.36 (-62.7%)

Std Dev $2.57

Avg Norm Float 0.4437

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 15m

Oldest Output Price 145h 12m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.31 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.32 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.39 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.41 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Field-Tested

$0.42 Float: HIDDEN

M4A1-S | Rose Hex

—

Field-Tested

$0.32 Float: HIDDEN

M4A1-S | Rose Hex

—

Field-Tested

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 32S //TOTAL COST $3.64 //ASK PRICE EV $3.99 //BID PRICE EV $3.35 //ASK PROFIT $0.35 (+9.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.29 (-7.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +70.7% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.33281249999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 6.931,
      "optimistic_value": 6.84,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 5.76,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.26625,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 1.3575,
      "optimistic_value": 1.34,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 1.07,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:44.881028Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.33281249999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
      "realistic_value": 5.0065,
      "optimistic_value": 4.94,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
      "conservative_value": 4.66,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.2973125,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
      "realistic_value": 2.9555000000000002,
      "optimistic_value": 2.91,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
      "conservative_value": 2.76,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:52.376119Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.26625,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
      "realistic_value": 2.087,
      "optimistic_value": 2.08,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
      "conservative_value": 1.91,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:22.758042Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_3970c9b2aa7bc0dbf72734f4",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "525375522204095143",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.964098Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "492724538182088361",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:17.959730Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "492724590626777121",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:02.478143Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "519746188259042468",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:02.478143Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "527627487623870576",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:02.478143Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "511864888985075589",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:39.398848Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "503983589619410563",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:39.398848Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "503983589619355411",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:55.434619Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "503983589619767503",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:47.782895Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "516368488725524570",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:47.782895Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:2"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $5.03 Mulberry 6.7% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $2.09 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.36	$6.94 +113.0%	$4.11 +26.1%	53.3%	+78.8%	$3.26	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Mulberry 6.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 6.7% $17.13 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.65	$38.92 +85.3%	$25.53 +21.5%	46.7%	+56.7%	$21.01	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.91 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.45	$18.08 +84.8%	$11.32 +15.7%	46.7%	+62.0%	$9.78	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.77	$18.08 +131.2%	$10.00 +27.9%	36.7%	+64.0%	$7.82	—
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.77	$18.08 +136.6%	$9.77 +27.8%	35.0%	+62.7%	$7.64	—
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $5.03 Mulberry 10.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $2.09 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.36	$6.94 +116.3%	$4.09 +27.4%	55.0%	+76.3%	$3.21	—
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.91 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.77	$18.08 +124.6%	$10.24 +27.3%	38.3%	+64.6%	$8.05	—
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $5.03 Mulberry 13.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.09 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.36	$6.94 +111.7%	$4.07 +24.1%	56.7%	+70.8%	$3.28	—
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.91 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.45	$18.08 +110.9%	$10.39 +21.3%	40.0%	+63.7%	$8.57	—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Mulberry 3.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 3.3% $17.13 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $16.98 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.65	$38.92 +81.7%	$25.91 +20.9%	48.3%	+57.4%	$21.42	—
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.91 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.45	$18.08 +104.3%	$10.62 +20.0%	41.7%	+63.6%	$8.85	—