The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items

Battle-Scarred +26.1%Factory New -6.6%Field-Tested +15.7%Minimal Wear +21.5%Well-Worn +9.5%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested

Inputs

Mint Fan

2x $0.41

Cobalt Paisley

1x $0.42

Reef Grief

3x $1.03

Royal Baroque

2x $1.07

Blush Pour

2x $0.65

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

40.0% $18.08

Mulberry

6.7% $15.94

Glitched Paint

6.7% $6.74

Bleeding Edge

6.7% $5.91

Royal Guard

40.0% $5.45

Max Win

$18.08 (+84.8%)

EV (ROI %)

$11.32 (+15.7%)

Win %

46.7%

Volatility

+62.0%

Cost

$9.78

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $9.78

Ask Price EV $11.32 (+15.7%)

Bid Price EV $9.85 (+0.8%)

Ask Profit $1.54 (+15.7%)

Bid Profit $0.07 (+0.8%)

Liquidity Gap $1.46 (+15.0%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.54

Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.07

Risk

Win Probability 46.7%

Loss Probability 53.3%

Best Case $18.08 (+84.8%)

Worst Case $5.45 (-44.3%)

Volatility +62.0%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 53.3%

Avg Win +$7.99

Avg Loss -$4.11

Bottom 5% Outcome $5.45 (-44.3%)

Std Dev $6.07

Avg Norm Float 0.1999

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 15m

Oldest Output Price 144h 14m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.41 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Field-Tested

$0.42 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Minimal Wear

$1.03 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Minimal Wear

$1.07 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Minimal Wear

$1.19 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Minimal Wear

$1.31 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Minimal Wear

$1.32 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Minimal Wear

$1.40 Float: HIDDEN

SSG 08 | Blush Pour

—

Field-Tested

$0.65 Float: HIDDEN

SSG 08 | Blush Pour

—

Minimal Wear

$0.98 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 32S //TOTAL COST $9.78 //ASK PRICE EV $11.32 //BID PRICE EV $9.85 //ASK PROFIT $1.54 (+15.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.07 (+0.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +62.0% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.1499325,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 18.0765,
      "optimistic_value": 17.94,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 15.21,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.119946,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 5.45,
      "optimistic_value": 5.24,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 5.11,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:52.974266Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.1499325,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
      "realistic_value": 15.9415,
      "optimistic_value": 15.91,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
      "conservative_value": 14.54,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.13393970000000002,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
      "realistic_value": 6.742,
      "optimistic_value": 6.49,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
      "conservative_value": 6.21,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:22.295325Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.119946,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
      "realistic_value": 5.914000000000001,
      "optimistic_value": 5.9,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
      "conservative_value": 5.14,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:39.151010Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_3970c9b2aa7bc0dbf72734f4",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "503983589619410563",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:39.398848Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "503983589619355411",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:55.434619Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.03,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "501731789730559517",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:00.114479Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.07,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "493850490550528768",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:25.819945Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "625579418032572382",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:44.198303Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "630083017718303094",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:00.114479Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "630083017713403458",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:00.114479Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "498354037509124375",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:25.819945Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.65,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "526501535293744649",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:09.060044Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.98,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "510738989040706534",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:54.302857Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:2"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $5.03 Mulberry 6.7% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $2.09 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.36	$6.94 +113.0%	$4.11 +26.1%	53.3%	+78.8%	$3.26	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Mulberry 6.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 6.7% $17.13 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.65	$38.92 +85.3%	$25.53 +21.5%	46.7%	+56.7%	$21.01	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.93 Mulberry 6.7% $5.01 Glitched Paint 6.7% $2.96 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $2.09 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.36	$6.93 +90.4%	$3.99 +9.5%	46.7%	+70.7%	$3.64	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.77	$18.08 +131.2%	$10.00 +27.9%	36.7%	+64.0%	$7.82	—
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.77	$18.08 +136.6%	$9.77 +27.8%	35.0%	+62.7%	$7.64	—
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $5.03 Mulberry 10.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $2.09 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.36	$6.94 +116.3%	$4.09 +27.4%	55.0%	+76.3%	$3.21	—
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.91 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.77	$18.08 +124.6%	$10.24 +27.3%	38.3%	+64.6%	$8.05	—
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $5.03 Mulberry 13.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.09 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.36	$6.94 +111.7%	$4.07 +24.1%	56.7%	+70.8%	$3.28	—
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.91 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.45	$18.08 +110.9%	$10.39 +21.3%	40.0%	+63.7%	$8.57	—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Mulberry 3.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 3.3% $17.13 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $16.98 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.65	$38.92 +81.7%	$25.91 +20.9%	48.3%	+57.4%	$21.42	—
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.91 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.45	$18.08 +104.3%	$10.62 +20.0%	41.7%	+63.6%	$8.85	—