The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Cobalt Paisley
4x $0.29
Yeti Camo
1x $0.32
Royal Baroque
2x $0.36
Mint Fan
1x $0.39
Shredded
1x $0.26
Rose Hex
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
40.0% $6.94
Glitched Paint
6.7% $5.03
Mulberry
6.7% $4.72
Bleeding Edge
6.7% $2.10
Royal Guard
40.0% $1.36
Max Win
$6.94 (+111.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.11 (+25.4%)
Win %
53.3%
Volatility
+78.2%
Cost
$3.28
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.28
Ask Price EV $4.11 (+25.4%)
Bid Price EV $3.53 (+7.7%)
Ask Profit $0.83 (+25.4%)
Bid Profit $0.25 (+7.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.58 (+17.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.83
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.25
Risk
Win Probability 53.3%
Loss Probability 46.7%
Best Case $6.94 (+111.7%)
Worst Case $1.36 (-58.4%)
Volatility +78.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 46.7%
Avg Win +$3.15
Avg Loss -$1.81
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.36 (-58.4%)
Std Dev $2.56
Avg Norm Float 0.5806
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 9m
Oldest Output Price 144h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 01S //TOTAL COST $3.28 //ASK PRICE EV $4.11 //BID PRICE EV $3.53 //ASK PROFIT $0.83 (+25.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.25 (+7.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $6.94 //VOLATILITY +78.2% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
40.0%
$6.94
+$3.66
+111.7%
$6.03
+$2.75
+83.8%
$0.91
13.2%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$5.03
+$1.75
+53.3%
$4.61
+$1.33
+40.5%
$0.42
8.3%
—
WIN
6.7%
$4.72
+$1.44
+44.0%
$3.86
+$0.58
+17.7%
$0.86
18.3%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$2.10
-$1.18
-36.0%
$1.91
-$1.37
-41.8%
$0.19
9.0%
—
NUKE
40.0%
$1.36
-$1.92
-58.4%
$1.07
-$2.21
-67.4%
$0.29
21.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.43542,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.9435,
"optimistic_value": 6.8,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 6.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:56:54.599031Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.348336,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.364,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:44.881028Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.43542,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 4.724,
"optimistic_value": 4.71,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 3.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:57:01.597106Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.3889752,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 5.0285,
"optimistic_value": 4.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 4.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:13.853496Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.348336,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:51.265448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_3970c9b2aa7bc0dbf72734f4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "514116688949730030",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.669375Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "512990736599751659",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.669375Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "525375522204095143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.669375Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724538182088361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:48.467459Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:39.967163Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "493850490550208404",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:32.902992Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "518620288314033904",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:32.902992Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "510738989040763342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:55.364470Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:25.126328Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:17:18.870821Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Mulberry 6.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 6.7% $17.17 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.85 | $38.92 +86.1% | $25.61 +22.4% | 46.7% | +56.6% | $20.92 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.85 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.45 | $18.08 +88.1% | $11.34 +18.0% | 46.7% | +63.0% | $9.61 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.93 Mulberry 6.7% $5.01 Glitched Paint 6.7% $3.01 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $2.10 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.36 | $6.93 +89.4% | $3.99 +9.1% | 46.7% | +70.1% | $3.66 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $5.03 Mulberry 16.7% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.10 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +121.8% | $4.05 +29.4% | 58.3% | +69.8% | $3.13 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $5.03 Mulberry 13.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.10 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +120.4% | $4.07 +29.2% | 56.7% | +73.6% | $3.15 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $5.03 Mulberry 20.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.10 Royal Guard 20.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +122.5% | $4.03 +29.2% | 60.0% | +65.4% | $3.12 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $5.03 Mulberry 23.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $2.10 Royal Guard 15.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +122.5% | $4.01 +28.5% | 61.7% | +60.5% | $3.12 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $5.03 Mulberry 10.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $2.10 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +115.6% | $4.09 +27.1% | 55.0% | +75.9% | $3.22 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.23 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.80 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.73 | $18.08 +126.5% | $10.11 +26.7% | 36.7% | +62.0% | $7.98 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.45 | $18.08 +133.8% | $9.76 +26.2% | 35.0% | +62.1% | $7.73 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 3.3% $5.03 Mulberry 3.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $2.10 Royal Guard 45.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +107.3% | $4.13 +23.4% | 51.7% | +80.0% | $3.35 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 14.0% $3.37 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 Reef Grief  14.0% $2.26 Arsenic Spill  5.0% $2.23 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.89 Rose Hex 5.0% $1.84 | $3.37 +120.5% | $2.04 +33.2% | 71.0% | +36.6% | $1.53 | — |