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The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Battle-Scarred +26.1%Factory New -6.6%Field-Tested +15.7%Minimal Wear +21.5%Well-Worn +9.5%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Reef Grief
P90 | Reef Grief
4x $1.68
Royal Baroque
P2000 | Royal Baroque
3x $2.67
Cobalt Paisley
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
1x $3.65
Rose Hex
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
1x $1.86
Arsenic Spill
AWP | Arsenic Spill
1x $2.24
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
40.0% $38.92
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
6.7% $33.42
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
6.7% $17.13
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
6.7% $16.98
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
40.0% $13.65
Max Win
$38.92 (+42.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$25.53 (-6.6%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+43.6%
Cost
$27.34
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $27.34
Ask Price EV $25.53 (-6.6%)
Bid Price EV $23.36 (-14.6%)
Ask Profit $-1.81 (-6.6%)
Bid Profit $-3.98 (-14.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.17 (+7.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.81
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.98
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $38.92 (+42.4%)
Worst Case $13.65 (-50.1%)
Volatility +43.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 53.3%
Avg Win +$10.80
Avg Loss -$12.84
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.65 (-50.1%)
Std Dev $11.91
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 145h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)
$1.68 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)
$2.13 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)
$2.25 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)
$2.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Factory New
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)
$3.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)
$2.24 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 28S //TOTAL COST $27.34 //ASK PRICE EV $25.53 //BID PRICE EV $23.36 //ASK PROFIT $-1.81 (-6.6%) //BID PROFIT $-3.98 (-14.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +43.6% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
      "optimistic_value": 38.81,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 34.38,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.041988,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 13.645,
      "optimistic_value": 13.54,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 13.24,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:42.815080Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
      "realistic_value": 33.418,
      "optimistic_value": 33.25,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
      "conservative_value": 31.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.0468866,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
      "realistic_value": 17.133499999999998,
      "optimistic_value": 16.99,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
      "conservative_value": 16.69,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:42.524394Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.041988,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
      "realistic_value": 16.977,
      "optimistic_value": 16.83,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
      "conservative_value": 16.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_3970c9b2aa7bc0dbf72734f4",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.68,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "521997822477172482",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:00.114479Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.13,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "525375688037287627",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.117025Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "517494388633881778",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.117025Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.25,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "528753387757791297",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.117025Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.67,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "500605889841516611",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:01.299613Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.65,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "619949307134804143",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.810387Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.96,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "640216044966789251",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:01.299613Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.72,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "506234592363569076",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:01.299613Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.86,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "500605889841403967",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:30.982181Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
      "listing_id": "528753387757738845",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
      "name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:29.886337Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:2"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
40.0% $6.94
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
6.7% $5.03
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
6.7% $4.72
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
6.7% $2.09
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
40.0% $1.36
$6.94
+113.0%
$4.11
+26.1%
53.3%+78.8%$3.26—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
40.0% $38.92
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
6.7% $33.42
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
6.7% $17.13
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
6.7% $16.98
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
40.0% $13.65
$38.92
+85.3%
$25.53
+21.5%
46.7%+56.7%$21.01—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
40.0% $18.08
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
6.7% $15.94
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
6.7% $6.74
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
6.7% $5.91
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
40.0% $5.45
$18.08
+84.8%
$11.32
+15.7%
46.7%+62.0%$9.78—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
40.0% $6.93
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
6.7% $5.01
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
6.7% $2.96
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
6.7% $2.09
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
40.0% $1.36
$6.93
+90.4%
$3.99
+9.5%
46.7%+70.7%$3.64—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
10.0% $18.08
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
26.7% $15.94
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
26.7% $6.72
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
26.7% $5.91
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
10.0% $5.77
$18.08
+131.2%
$10.00
+27.9%
36.7%+64.0%$7.82—
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
5.0% $18.08
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
30.0% $15.94
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
30.0% $6.72
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
30.0% $5.91
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
5.0% $5.77
$18.08
+136.6%
$9.77
+27.8%
35.0%+62.7%$7.64—
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
35.0% $6.94
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
10.0% $5.03
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
10.0% $4.72
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
10.0% $2.09
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
35.0% $1.36
$6.94
+116.3%
$4.09
+27.4%
55.0%+76.3%$3.21—
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
15.0% $18.08
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
23.3% $15.94
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
23.3% $6.72
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
23.3% $5.91
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
15.0% $5.77
$18.08
+124.6%
$10.24
+27.3%
38.3%+64.6%$8.05—
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
30.0% $6.94
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
13.3% $5.03
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
13.3% $4.72
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
13.3% $2.09
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
30.0% $1.36
$6.94
+111.7%
$4.07
+24.1%
56.7%+70.8%$3.28—
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
20.0% $18.08
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
20.0% $15.94
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
20.0% $6.58
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
20.0% $5.91
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
20.0% $5.45
$18.08
+110.9%
$10.39
+21.3%
40.0%+63.7%$8.57—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
45.0% $38.92
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
3.3% $33.42
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
3.3% $17.13
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
3.3% $16.98
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
45.0% $13.65
$38.92
+81.7%
$25.91
+20.9%
48.3%+57.4%$21.42—
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
25.0% $18.08
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
16.7% $15.94
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
16.7% $6.58
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
16.7% $5.91
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
25.0% $5.45
$18.08
+104.3%
$10.62
+20.0%
41.7%+63.6%$8.85—
FS

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