The Genesis Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn StatTrak™
Inputs
Bullfrog
2x $0.20
Red Wing
1x $0.23
Fragment
4x $0.30
RMX
2x $0.38
Bock Blocks
1x $0.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Liquidation
6.0% $7.73
Electrum
14.0% $7.45
Firebreathing
14.0% $3.97
Urban Sovereign
14.0% $2.69
Galigator
14.0% $2.39
Amberline
14.0% $2.30
Max Win
$7.73 (+126.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.59 (+5.4%)
Win %
34.0%
Volatility
+60.4%
Cost
$3.41
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.41
Ask Price EV $3.59 (+5.4%)
Bid Price EV $2.99 (-12.3%)
Ask Profit $0.18 (+5.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.42 (-12.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.60 (+17.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.18
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.42
Risk
Win Probability 34.0%
Loss Probability 66.0%
Best Case $7.73 (+126.6%)
Worst Case $1.86 (-45.4%)
Volatility +60.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 52.0%
Avg Win +$2.66
Avg Loss -$1.09
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.86 (-45.4%)
Std Dev $2.06
Avg Norm Float 0.4468
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 140h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 06S //TOTAL COST $3.41 //ASK PRICE EV $3.59 //BID PRICE EV $2.99 //ASK PROFIT $0.18 (+5.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.42 (-12.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 34.0% //BEST CASE $7.73 //VOLATILITY +60.4% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
6.0%
$7.73
+$4.32
+126.6%
$6.40
+$2.99
+87.7%
$1.33
17.2%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
14.0%
$7.45
+$4.04
+118.5%
$5.07
+$1.66
+48.7%
$2.38
32.0%
—
WIN
14.0%
$3.97
+$0.56
+16.5%
$3.63
+$0.22
+6.5%
$0.34
8.7%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.69
-$0.72
-21.1%
$2.67
-$0.74
-21.7%
$0.02
0.8%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.39
-$1.02
-29.9%
$2.19
-$1.22
-35.8%
$0.20
8.4%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.30
-$1.11
-32.4%
$2.19
-$1.22
-35.8%
$0.11
4.9%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.17
-$1.24
-36.4%
$1.70
-$1.71
-50.1%
$0.47
21.6%
—
LOSS THIN BID
6.0%
$2.13
-$1.29
-37.7%
$1.55
-$1.86
-54.5%
$0.58
27.1%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.10
-$1.31
-38.5%
$1.69
-$1.72
-50.4%
$0.41
19.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.86
-$1.55
-45.4%
$1.78
-$1.63
-47.8%
$0.08
4.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.44679,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 3.9739999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 3.96,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.825383Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.44679,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.3905,
"optimistic_value": 2.38,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:57.054699Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.44679,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 7.452,
"optimistic_value": 7.41,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.814170Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.44679,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 2.3035,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:45.898941Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.44679,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 2.6905,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.487183Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.44679,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 2.168,
"optimistic_value": 2.07,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T16:14:32.147006Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.44679,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 7.7285,
"optimistic_value": 7.62,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:36:58.638972Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.44679,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 2.098,
"optimistic_value": 2.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 1.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T14:57:36.309882Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.44679,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 2.125,
"optimistic_value": 2.09,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 1.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Ocular (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:27:42.553298Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.44679,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 1.8635000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.86,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 1.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Continuum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:05:35.113953Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_394511ca8bfff287f1fa0358",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "511864888984098909",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Bullfrog (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:25.503817Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "512990789044186079",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:19.101779Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "529879235107272456",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Bullfrog (Well-Worn)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:07.473931Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "502857689862472948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:55.412739Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "507361289452778197",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:55.412739Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "499479989896168933",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:55.412739Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "508487136897691262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:47:42.436159Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "506235389469140196",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:47:42.436159Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "509613089303654607",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:53:58.476970Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "508487189339291906",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:04.542706Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-36:3+collection-set-community-37:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation 6.0% $11.18 Electrum 14.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 14.0% $6.12 Galigator 14.0% $3.26 Amberline 14.0% $3.21 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $3.19 | $11.18 +199.1% | $4.87 +30.3% | 34.0% | +77.9% | $3.74 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Liquidation 6.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.79 | $51.27 +172.2% | $23.47 +24.6% | 48.0% | +70.4% | $18.84 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 6.0% $21.44 Electrum 14.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 14.0% $10.78 Amberline 14.0% $6.48 Galigator 14.0% $5.66 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $4.80 | $21.44 +159.6% | $8.53 +3.3% | 34.0% | +59.7% | $8.26 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation 4.0% $11.18 Electrum 16.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 16.0% $6.12 Galigator 16.0% $3.26 Amberline 16.0% $3.21 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $3.19 | $11.18 +191.3% | $5.01 +30.6% | 36.0% | +75.6% | $3.84 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation 8.0% $11.18 Electrum 12.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 12.0% $6.12 Galigator 12.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $3.23 Amberline 12.0% $3.21 | $11.18 +208.1% | $4.74 +30.5% | 32.0% | +80.9% | $3.63 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation 2.0% $11.18 Electrum 18.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 18.0% $6.12 Galigator 18.0% $3.26 Amberline 18.0% $3.21 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $3.19 | $11.18 +176.2% | $5.15 +27.3% | 38.0% | +71.7% | $4.05 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation 10.0% $11.18 Electrum 10.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 10.0% $6.12 Galigator 10.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $3.23 Amberline 10.0% $3.21 | $11.18 +209.0% | $4.60 +27.0% | 30.0% | +82.2% | $3.62 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 8.0% $51.27 Liquidation 12.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 8.0% $31.66 Amberline 8.0% $18.87 Galigator 8.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $13.79 | $51.27 +208.0% | $20.94 +25.8% | 36.0% | +77.7% | $16.65 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 6.0% $51.27 Liquidation 14.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 6.0% $31.66 Amberline 6.0% $18.87 Galigator 6.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $13.79 | $51.27 +216.3% | $20.08 +23.9% | 32.0% | +79.6% | $16.21 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 4.0% $51.27 Liquidation 16.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 4.0% $31.66 Amberline 4.0% $18.87 Galigator 4.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $13.79 | $51.27 +220.5% | $19.23 +20.2% | 28.0% | +80.5% | $16.00 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 2.0% $51.27 Liquidation 18.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 2.0% $31.66 Amberline 2.0% $18.87 Galigator 2.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $13.79 | $51.27 +224.1% | $18.38 +16.2% | 24.0% | +81.3% | $15.82 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | The Oligarch  5.0% $961.24 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Full Throttle  5.0% $708.03 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 | $961.24 +70.8% | $681.23 +21.1% | 55.0% | +32.4% | $562.73 | — |