The Genesis Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred StatTrak™
Inputs
Bullfrog
2x $0.20
Red Wing
1x $0.23
Fragment
4x $0.30
RMX
2x $0.38
Bock Blocks
1x $0.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
14.0% $5.85
Liquidation
6.0% $4.99
Firebreathing
14.0% $3.69
Urban Sovereign
14.0% $2.46
Galigator
14.0% $2.29
Amberline
14.0% $2.09
Max Win
$5.85 (+74.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.92 (-12.9%)
Win %
34.0%
Volatility
+45.5%
Cost
$3.35
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.35
Ask Price EV $2.92 (-12.9%)
Bid Price EV $2.60 (-22.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.43 (-12.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.75 (-22.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.32 (+9.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.43
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.75
Risk
Win Probability 34.0%
Loss Probability 66.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+74.6%)
Worst Case $1.18 (-64.8%)
Volatility +45.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.0%
Avg Win +$1.46
Avg Loss -$1.41
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.18 (-64.8%)
Std Dev $1.52
Avg Norm Float 0.4549
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 142h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 28S //TOTAL COST $3.35 //ASK PRICE EV $2.92 //BID PRICE EV $2.60 //ASK PROFIT $-0.43 (-12.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.75 (-22.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 34.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +45.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
14.0%
$5.85
+$2.50
+74.6%
$4.43
+$1.08
+32.2%
$1.42
24.3%
—
WIN
6.0%
$4.99
+$1.64
+49.0%
$4.80
+$1.45
+43.3%
$0.19
3.9%
—
SMALL WIN
14.0%
$3.69
+$0.34
+10.3%
$3.65
+$0.30
+9.0%
$0.04
1.2%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.46
-$0.89
-26.6%
$2.18
-$1.17
-34.9%
$0.28
11.4%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.29
-$1.06
-31.7%
$2.16
-$1.19
-35.5%
$0.13
5.6%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.09
-$1.26
-37.7%
$1.89
-$1.46
-43.6%
$0.20
9.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.66
-$1.69
-50.3%
$1.65
-$1.70
-50.7%
$0.01
0.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.33
-$2.02
-60.2%
$1.11
-$2.24
-66.9%
$0.22
16.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.26
-$2.09
-62.3%
$1.20
-$2.15
-64.2%
$0.06
4.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.18
-$2.17
-64.8%
$1.16
-$2.19
-65.4%
$0.02
1.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.45491,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 3.6935000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 3.69,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.559561Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.45491,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.2885,
"optimistic_value": 2.25,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.870254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.45491,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 5.8505,
"optimistic_value": 5.84,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.156004Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.45491,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 2.087,
"optimistic_value": 2.08,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:05.348438Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.45491,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 2.46,
"optimistic_value": 2.46,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 2.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.665920Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.45491,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 1.262,
"optimistic_value": 1.22,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 1.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T21:16:20.676721Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.45491,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 4.992500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 4.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:01.603125Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.45491,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 1.1804999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.17,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:45.944148Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.45491,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 1.3345,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 1.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Ocular (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T07:34:31.687955Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.45491,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 1.6635,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 1.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Continuum (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T13:36:15.769950Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_394511ca8bfff287f1fa0358",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "511864888984098909",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Bullfrog (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:56.065752Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "512990789044186079",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:43.309664Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "529879235107272456",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Bullfrog (Well-Worn)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:23.921864Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "502857689862472948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:04.956128Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "507361289452778197",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:04.956128Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "499479989896168933",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:04.956128Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "508487136897691262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:10.749346Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "506235389469140196",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:10.749346Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "496102290329339159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:30.629620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "509613089303654607",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:23.771267Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-36:3+collection-set-community-37:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation 6.0% $11.18 Electrum 14.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 14.0% $6.12 Galigator 14.0% $3.26 Amberline 14.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $3.19 | $11.18 +203.1% | $4.87 +32.1% | 34.0% | +79.0% | $3.69 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Liquidation 6.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.79 | $51.27 +175.8% | $23.48 +26.3% | 48.0% | +71.3% | $18.59 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn ST | Liquidation 6.0% $7.73 Electrum 14.0% $7.45 Firebreathing 14.0% $3.97 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $2.69 Galigator 14.0% $2.39 Amberline 14.0% $2.30 | $7.73 +128.0% | $3.59 +6.0% | 34.0% | +56.6% | $3.39 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 6.0% $21.44 Electrum 14.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 14.0% $10.78 Amberline 14.0% $6.48 Galigator 14.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $4.73 | $21.44 +159.6% | $8.53 +3.2% | 34.0% | +59.7% | $8.26 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation 2.0% $11.18 Electrum 18.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 18.0% $6.12 Galigator 18.0% $3.26 Amberline 18.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $3.19 | $11.18 +186.0% | $5.16 +31.9% | 38.0% | +74.2% | $3.91 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation 8.0% $11.18 Electrum 12.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 12.0% $6.12 Galigator 12.0% $3.26 Amberline 12.0% $3.21 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $3.19 | $11.18 +209.8% | $4.73 +31.1% | 32.0% | +81.4% | $3.61 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 10.0% $51.27 Liquidation 10.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.79 | $51.27 +200.7% | $21.78 +27.7% | 40.0% | +76.2% | $17.05 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 8.0% $51.27 Liquidation 12.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 8.0% $31.66 Amberline 8.0% $18.87 Galigator 8.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $13.79 | $51.27 +212.5% | $20.94 +27.6% | 36.0% | +78.8% | $16.41 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Liquidation 4.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.79 | $51.27 +162.9% | $24.33 +24.7% | 36.0% | +69.2% | $19.50 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 6.0% $51.27 Liquidation 14.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 6.0% $31.66 Amberline 6.0% $18.87 Galigator 6.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $13.79 | $51.27 +216.3% | $20.09 +24.0% | 32.0% | +79.5% | $16.21 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 4.0% $51.27 Liquidation 16.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 4.0% $31.66 Amberline 4.0% $18.87 Galigator 4.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $13.79 | $51.27 +220.5% | $19.25 +20.3% | 28.0% | +80.4% | $16.00 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 2.0% $51.27 Liquidation 18.0% $46.21 Firebreathing 2.0% $31.66 Amberline 2.0% $18.87 Galigator 2.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $13.79 | $51.27 +224.1% | $18.38 +16.2% | 24.0% | +81.3% | $15.82 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | The Oligarch  5.0% $961.24 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Full Throttle  5.0% $708.03 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 | $961.24 +70.8% | $681.23 +21.1% | 55.0% | +32.4% | $562.73 | — |