The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Ensnared
2x $0.13
Scrawl
1x $0.13
Foresight
1x $0.14
Aeolian Light
5x $0.25
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
30.0% $2.24
Night Terror
8.0% $1.00
Zombie Offensive
8.0% $0.96
Ticket to Hell
8.0% $0.89
Space Cat
8.0% $0.86
Max Win
$5.85 (+144.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.79 (+16.7%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+87.0%
Cost
$2.39
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.39
Ask Price EV $2.79 (+16.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.45 (+2.5%)
Ask Profit $0.40 (+16.7%)
Bid Profit $0.06 (+2.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.34 (+14.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.40
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.06
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+144.8%)
Worst Case $0.83 (-65.3%)
Volatility +87.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.46
Avg Loss -$0.91
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.83 (-65.3%)
Std Dev $2.08
Avg Norm Float 0.4459
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 142h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 54S //TOTAL COST $2.39 //ASK PRICE EV $2.79 //BID PRICE EV $2.45 //ASK PROFIT $0.40 (+16.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.06 (+2.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +87.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$5.85
+$3.46
+144.8%
$4.91
+$2.52
+105.4%
$0.94
16.1%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$2.24
-$0.15
-6.3%
$2.14
-$0.25
-10.5%
$0.10
4.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.00
-$1.39
-58.3%
$0.87
-$1.52
-63.6%
$0.13
12.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.96
-$1.43
-59.8%
$0.81
-$1.58
-66.1%
$0.15
15.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.89
-$1.50
-62.7%
$0.85
-$1.54
-64.4%
$0.04
4.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.86
-$1.53
-64.0%
$0.82
-$1.57
-65.7%
$0.04
4.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.83
-$1.56
-65.3%
$0.82
-$1.57
-65.7%
$0.01
1.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.3343875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.312095,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.2395,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:24:20.382207Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.44585,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.83,
"optimistic_value": 0.83,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:50:20.682325Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.312095,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 0.997,
"optimistic_value": 0.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:35.810766Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.2987195,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 0.8614999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.83,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:47.326293Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.33884600000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 0.891,
"optimistic_value": 0.87,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:42:23.719500Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.222925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 0.9604999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:26:44.444767Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2cc2f0895d714d7f90ae8347",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "490472790737416299",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:45:31.454769Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "503983589619340975",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:57.244708Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "491598690699311594",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:55.768871Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "501731737286578949",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:45:31.454769Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "508487136897723158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490550151956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "500605889841196571",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:33.256443Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "498354089953069411",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:38.159872Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.48 Night Terror 8.0% $1.58 Space Cat 8.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.03 Dream Glade 8.0% $0.91 | $12.25 +189.5% | $5.47 +29.3% | 60.0% | +105.6% | $4.23 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.24 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.89 Space Cat 8.0% $0.86 | $5.85 +149.0% | $2.79 +18.8% | 30.0% | +85.2% | $2.35 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $15.24 Night Terror 8.0% $3.99 Space Cat 8.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $2.68 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $1.67 | $26.93 +129.0% | $13.71 +16.5% | 60.0% | +81.0% | $11.76 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.48 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.67 Night Terror 14.0% $1.58 Space Cat 14.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +384.0% | $3.41 +34.8% | 30.0% | +149.0% | $2.53 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.48 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.67 Night Terror 12.0% $1.58 Space Cat 12.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +282.7% | $4.11 +28.6% | 40.0% | +128.3% | $3.20 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.48 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.67 Night Terror 6.0% $1.58 Space Cat 6.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +149.9% | $6.24 +27.3% | 35.0% | +89.9% | $4.90 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.51 Night Terror 4.0% $1.58 Space Cat 4.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $1.03 Dream Glade 4.0% $0.91 | $12.25 +123.0% | $6.93 +26.2% | 40.0% | +79.2% | $5.49 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.51 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.67 Night Terror 10.0% $1.58 Space Cat 10.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +218.1% | $4.83 +25.5% | 50.0% | +111.9% | $3.85 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.51 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.67 Night Terror 16.0% $1.58 Space Cat 16.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 16.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +464.3% | $2.71 +24.7% | 20.0% | +149.9% | $2.17 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.24 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $1.01 Night Terror 2.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 2.0% $0.96 Space Cat 2.0% $0.86 | $6.12 +96.0% | $3.85 +23.5% | 45.0% | +65.3% | $3.12 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  40.0% $27.17 Abyssal Apparition  20.0% $9.32 Melondrama  20.0% $8.83 Rapid Eye Movement  20.0% $8.83 | $27.17 +96.9% | $16.26 +17.9% | 40.0% | +64.5% | $13.80 | — |