The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Ensnared
1x $0.15
Lifted Spirits
1x $0.27
Necro Jr.
2x $0.30
Grip Tape
2x $0.34
Aeolian Light
3x $0.38
The Daily Deagle
1x $0.46
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
30.0% $4.57
Night Terror
8.0% $1.58
Space Cat
8.0% $1.25
Dream Glade
8.0% $1.07
Zombie Offensive
8.0% $1.01
Max Win
$12.25 (+190.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.51 (+30.9%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+109.9%
Cost
$4.21
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.21
Ask Price EV $5.51 (+30.9%)
Bid Price EV $5.06 (+20.2%)
Ask Profit $1.30 (+30.9%)
Bid Profit $0.85 (+20.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.45 (+10.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.30
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.85
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+190.9%)
Worst Case $0.94 (-77.6%)
Volatility +109.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.20
Avg Loss -$3.04
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.94 (-77.6%)
Std Dev $4.63
Avg Norm Float 0.1994
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 140h 54m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 52M 07S //TOTAL COST $4.21 //ASK PRICE EV $5.51 //BID PRICE EV $5.06 //ASK PROFIT $1.30 (+30.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.85 (+20.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +109.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$12.25
+$8.04
+190.9%
$11.36
+$7.15
+169.8%
$0.89
7.2%
—
PAPER WIN
30.0%
$4.57
+$0.36
+8.5%
$4.10
-$0.11
-2.6%
$0.47
10.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.58
-$2.63
-62.5%
$1.43
-$2.78
-66.0%
$0.15
9.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.25
-$2.96
-70.3%
$1.16
-$3.05
-72.4%
$0.09
7.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.07
-$3.14
-74.5%
$0.87
-$3.34
-79.3%
$0.20
19.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.01
-$3.20
-75.9%
$0.99
-$3.22
-76.5%
$0.02
2.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.94
-$3.27
-77.6%
$0.85
-$3.36
-79.8%
$0.09
10.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.149535,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.139566,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.567500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.48,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:43.836405Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19938,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.0735000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:13.151797Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.139566,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 1.58,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 1.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:58:34.524448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.1335846,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.2505,
"optimistic_value": 1.24,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:26.237228Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.1515288,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 0.9440000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.93,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:39.383282Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09969,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.014,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:13.237480Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2cc2f0895d714d7f90ae8347",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "501731737286578949",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:57:02.067471Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "501731789729937653",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:35.318176Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "519746188257835928",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:50.629565Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "499479989895434497",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:50.629565Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620288313700148",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:42.494799Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "497228190141529805",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:40.140144Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "497228190141160121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:40.140144Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "491598690699020822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:45.054480Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "492724590626126853",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:28.913662Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "524249735517932847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:43:19.617311Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.22 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.94 Space Cat 8.0% $0.87 | $5.85 +141.8% | $2.79 +15.3% | 30.0% | +82.7% | $2.42 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $15.24 Night Terror 8.0% $3.99 Space Cat 8.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $2.68 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $1.66 | $26.93 +126.1% | $13.71 +15.1% | 60.0% | +80.0% | $11.91 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.45 Night Terror 12.0% $1.58 Space Cat 12.0% $1.26 Dream Glade 12.0% $1.07 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $1.01 | $12.25 +305.5% | $4.04 +33.9% | 40.0% | +137.7% | $3.02 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.57 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.66 Night Terror 14.0% $1.58 Space Cat 14.0% $1.26 Dream Glade 14.0% $1.07 | $12.25 +372.8% | $3.44 +33.0% | 30.0% | +145.5% | $2.59 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.51 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.67 Night Terror 10.0% $1.58 Space Cat 10.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.02 | $12.25 +230.9% | $4.83 +30.7% | 50.0% | +116.4% | $3.70 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.57 Night Terror 6.0% $1.58 Space Cat 6.0% $1.26 Dream Glade 6.0% $1.07 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.01 | $12.25 +152.0% | $6.24 +28.3% | 35.0% | +91.2% | $4.86 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.57 Night Terror 4.0% $1.58 Space Cat 4.0% $1.25 Dream Glade 4.0% $1.07 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $1.01 | $12.25 +121.8% | $6.96 +26.0% | 40.0% | +78.4% | $5.52 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.57 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.66 Night Terror 16.0% $1.58 Space Cat 16.0% $1.25 Dream Glade 16.0% $1.07 | $12.25 +459.1% | $2.73 +24.8% | 20.0% | +148.5% | $2.19 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.51 Night Terror 2.0% $1.58 Space Cat 2.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 2.0% $1.02 Dream Glade 2.0% $0.93 | $12.25 +98.1% | $7.65 +23.8% | 45.0% | +67.3% | $6.18 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  40.0% $27.17 Rapid Eye Movement  20.0% $8.83 Abyssal Apparition  20.0% $8.77 Melondrama  20.0% $8.74 | $27.17 +106.6% | $16.14 +22.7% | 40.0% | +68.5% | $13.15 | — |