The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Necro Jr.
2x $0.30
Lifted Spirits
1x $2.36
Spirit Board
1x $2.72
Aeolian Light
2x $0.94
Grip Tape
2x $0.99
Creep
1x $1.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
30.0% $15.24
Dream Glade
8.0% $8.61
Ticket to Hell
8.0% $4.90
Night Terror
8.0% $3.99
Space Cat
8.0% $3.22
Max Win
$26.93 (+53.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$14.52 (-17.1%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+53.2%
Cost
$17.51
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $17.51
Ask Price EV $14.52 (-17.1%)
Bid Price EV $13.79 (-21.2%)
Ask Profit $-2.99 (-17.1%)
Bid Profit $-3.72 (-21.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.73 (+4.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.99
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.72
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+53.8%)
Worst Case $2.68 (-84.7%)
Volatility +53.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$9.42
Avg Loss -$8.30
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.68 (-84.7%)
Std Dev $9.32
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 3h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$2.72 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.99 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 59S //TOTAL COST $17.51 //ASK PRICE EV $14.52 //BID PRICE EV $13.79 //ASK PROFIT $-2.99 (-17.1%) //BID PROFIT $-3.72 (-21.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +53.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$26.93
+$9.42
+53.8%
$26.63
+$9.12
+52.1%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$15.24
-$2.27
-13.0%
$13.15
-$4.36
-24.9%
$2.09
13.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.61
-$8.90
-50.8%
$8.52
-$8.99
-51.3%
$0.09
1.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.90
-$12.61
-72.0%
$4.89
-$12.62
-72.1%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.99
-$13.52
-77.2%
$3.96
-$13.55
-77.4%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.22
-$14.29
-81.6%
$3.19
-$14.32
-81.8%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.68
-$14.83
-84.7%
$2.67
-$14.84
-84.8%
$0.01
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 15.2405,
"optimistic_value": 14.81,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:21.518147Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 8.607,
"optimistic_value": 8.6,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 8.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:31:57.910192Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 3.9935,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:47.458927Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0468866,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:10.047266Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.053184800000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 4.9035,
"optimistic_value": 4.9,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:59.300896Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.03499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:48.764813Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2cc2f0895d714d7f90ae8347",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "519746188257835928",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:56.555570Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "490472738292010095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:29.764565Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "523123091070407086",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:45.096325Z"
},
{
"price": 2.72,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "497228137696833341",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:52.868524Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:33.949346Z"
},
{
"price": 0.99,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "652600943945535924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:32.641458Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.777284Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490549357652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:27.408216Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "520872088106613300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:46.808216Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:59.999027Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.48 Night Terror 8.0% $1.58 Space Cat 8.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.03 Dream Glade 8.0% $0.91 | $12.25 +189.5% | $5.47 +29.3% | 60.0% | +105.6% | $4.23 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.24 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.89 Space Cat 8.0% $0.86 | $5.85 +149.0% | $2.79 +18.8% | 30.0% | +85.2% | $2.35 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.24 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.89 Space Cat 8.0% $0.86 | $5.85 +144.8% | $2.79 +16.7% | 30.0% | +83.8% | $2.39 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $15.24 Night Terror 8.0% $3.99 Space Cat 8.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $2.68 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $1.67 | $26.93 +129.0% | $13.71 +16.5% | 60.0% | +81.0% | $11.76 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.48 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.67 Night Terror 14.0% $1.58 Space Cat 14.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +384.0% | $3.41 +34.8% | 30.0% | +149.0% | $2.53 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.48 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.67 Night Terror 12.0% $1.58 Space Cat 12.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +282.7% | $4.11 +28.6% | 40.0% | +128.3% | $3.20 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.48 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.67 Night Terror 6.0% $1.58 Space Cat 6.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +149.9% | $6.24 +27.3% | 35.0% | +89.9% | $4.90 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.51 Night Terror 4.0% $1.58 Space Cat 4.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $1.03 Dream Glade 4.0% $0.91 | $12.25 +123.0% | $6.93 +26.2% | 40.0% | +79.2% | $5.49 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.51 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.67 Night Terror 10.0% $1.58 Space Cat 10.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +218.1% | $4.83 +25.5% | 50.0% | +111.9% | $3.85 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.51 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.67 Night Terror 16.0% $1.58 Space Cat 16.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 16.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +464.3% | $2.71 +24.7% | 20.0% | +149.9% | $2.17 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.24 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $1.01 Night Terror 2.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 2.0% $0.96 Space Cat 2.0% $0.86 | $6.12 +96.0% | $3.85 +23.5% | 45.0% | +65.3% | $3.12 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  40.0% $27.17 Abyssal Apparition  20.0% $9.32 Melondrama  20.0% $8.83 Rapid Eye Movement  20.0% $8.83 | $27.17 +96.9% | $16.26 +17.9% | 40.0% | +64.5% | $13.80 | — |