The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Poultrygeist
2x $0.12
Foresight
1x $0.13
Ensnared
1x $0.13
Aeolian Light
5x $0.25
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $6.12
Trace Lock
30.0% $2.24
Ticket to Hell
8.0% $1.01
Night Terror
8.0% $1.00
Zombie Offensive
8.0% $0.96
Space Cat
8.0% $0.93
Max Win
$6.12 (+162.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.89 (+23.9%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+93.6%
Cost
$2.33
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.33
Ask Price EV $2.89 (+23.9%)
Bid Price EV $2.58 (+10.7%)
Ask Profit $0.56 (+23.9%)
Bid Profit $0.25 (+10.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.31 (+13.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.56
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.25
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $6.12 (+162.5%)
Worst Case $0.85 (-63.4%)
Volatility +93.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.79
Avg Loss -$0.83
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.85 (-63.4%)
Std Dev $2.18
Avg Norm Float 0.5102
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 143h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 51M 22S //TOTAL COST $2.33 //ASK PRICE EV $2.89 //BID PRICE EV $2.58 //ASK PROFIT $0.56 (+23.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.25 (+10.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $6.12 //VOLATILITY +93.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$6.12
+$3.79
+162.5%
$5.33
+$3.00
+128.8%
$0.79
12.9%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$2.24
-$0.09
-3.9%
$2.14
-$0.19
-8.2%
$0.10
4.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.01
-$1.32
-56.7%
$0.95
-$1.38
-59.2%
$0.06
5.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.00
-$1.33
-57.2%
$0.87
-$1.46
-62.7%
$0.13
12.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.96
-$1.37
-58.8%
$0.81
-$1.52
-65.2%
$0.15
15.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.93
-$1.40
-59.9%
$0.82
-$1.51
-64.8%
$0.11
12.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.85
-$1.48
-63.4%
$0.77
-$1.56
-67.0%
$0.08
9.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.38266500000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 6.1165,
"optimistic_value": 5.91,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 5.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:27.628648Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.35715399999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.2395,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:40.425168Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.51022,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.8534999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.85,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:55:21.468799Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.35715399999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 0.997,
"optimistic_value": 0.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:35.810766Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.3418474,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 0.9335,
"optimistic_value": 0.93,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:21.190530Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.38776720000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 1.01,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 0.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:48:52.997472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.25511,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 0.9604999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:26:44.444767Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2cc2f0895d714d7f90ae8347",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-2c6b935bb4eb",
"listing_id": "509613089304955287",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c6b935bb4eb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:40:36.794948Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-2c6b935bb4eb",
"listing_id": "499479989896792957",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c6b935bb4eb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:40:36.794948Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "499479989896802605",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:48:44.186235Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "519746188258783952",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:44.736388Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:19.911968Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:19.911968Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "508487136897723158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:19.911968Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490550151956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:19.911968Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488725919454",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:45.793783Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "499479989896498261",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:56.820716Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.51 Night Terror 8.0% $1.58 Space Cat 8.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.03 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.97 | $12.25 +177.7% | $5.48 +24.4% | 60.0% | +101.1% | $4.41 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.24 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.97 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $0.96 Space Cat 8.0% $0.93 | $5.85 +143.8% | $2.80 +16.8% | 30.0% | +82.9% | $2.40 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.79 Night Terror 8.0% $3.99 Space Cat 8.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $2.68 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $1.67 | $26.93 +122.0% | $13.57 +11.9% | 60.0% | +78.5% | $12.13 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.52 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.61 Night Terror 12.0% $1.58 Space Cat 12.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +287.5% | $4.12 +30.4% | 40.0% | +130.1% | $3.16 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 40.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.24 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $1.01 Night Terror 4.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $0.96 Space Cat 4.0% $0.93 | $6.12 +115.4% | $3.53 +24.4% | 40.0% | +73.7% | $2.84 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.51 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.67 Night Terror 14.0% $1.58 Space Cat 14.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +345.3% | $3.41 +24.1% | 30.0% | +137.2% | $2.75 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.28 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.58 Night Terror 10.0% $1.58 Space Cat 10.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +218.1% | $4.77 +23.8% | 50.0% | +112.3% | $3.85 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.51 Night Terror 6.0% $1.58 Space Cat 6.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.03 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.97 | $12.25 +140.6% | $6.21 +22.0% | 35.0% | +87.4% | $5.09 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.28 Night Terror 2.0% $1.58 Space Cat 2.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 2.0% $1.05 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $0.90 | $12.25 +89.0% | $7.55 +16.5% | 45.0% | +65.4% | $6.48 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.51 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.67 Night Terror 16.0% $1.58 Space Cat 16.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 16.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +425.5% | $2.70 +16.0% | 20.0% | +139.7% | $2.33 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  40.0% $27.17 Abyssal Apparition  20.0% $9.32 Melondrama  20.0% $8.83 Rapid Eye Movement  20.0% $8.83 | $27.17 +96.9% | $16.26 +17.9% | 40.0% | +64.5% | $13.80 | — |