The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Caged
3x $0.14
Bullfrog
1x $0.18
Red Wing
1x $0.19
Late Night Transit
3x $0.48
Green Line
2x $0.60
↓
Possible Outputs
Derailment
16.7% $7.13
Charged Up
16.7% $5.48
Whiteout
16.7% $5.25
Liquidation
10.0% $2.49
Cat Fight
10.0% $0.96
Continuum
10.0% $0.93
Max Win
$7.13 (+99.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.58 (+0.4%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+69.5%
Cost
$3.57
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.57
Ask Price EV $3.58 (+0.4%)
Bid Price EV $3.27 (-8.3%)
Ask Profit $0.01 (+0.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.30 (-8.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.31 (+8.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.01
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.30
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $7.13 (+99.7%)
Worst Case $0.84 (-76.3%)
Volatility +69.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$2.38
Avg Loss -$2.35
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.84 (-76.3%)
Std Dev $2.48
Avg Norm Float 0.3988
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 149h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 28S //TOTAL COST $3.57 //ASK PRICE EV $3.58 //BID PRICE EV $3.27 //ASK PROFIT $0.01 (+0.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.30 (-8.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $7.13 //VOLATILITY +69.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$7.13
+$3.56
+99.7%
$6.40
+$2.83
+79.3%
$0.73
10.2%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$5.48
+$1.91
+53.5%
$4.88
+$1.31
+36.7%
$0.60
11.0%
—
WIN
16.7%
$5.25
+$1.68
+46.9%
$5.08
+$1.51
+42.3%
$0.17
3.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.49
-$1.08
-30.2%
$2.20
-$1.37
-38.4%
$0.29
11.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.96
-$2.61
-73.0%
$0.82
-$2.75
-77.0%
$0.14
14.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.93
-$2.64
-73.9%
$0.82
-$2.75
-77.0%
$0.11
11.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.85
-$2.72
-76.1%
$0.83
-$2.74
-76.8%
$0.02
2.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.84
-$2.73
-76.3%
$0.81
-$2.76
-77.3%
$0.03
4.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.27913899999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.4348438,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 5.2455,
"optimistic_value": 5.2,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:29:59.237187Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.39877,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 5.481,
"optimistic_value": 5.46,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 4.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:43:53.395739Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.39877,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 0.8534999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.85,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:40.030953Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.39877,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 2.4935,
"optimistic_value": 2.49,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 2.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:16.804583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.39877,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 0.964,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:51:56.092922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.39877,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 0.8445,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:44.106410Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.39877,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 0.9305,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:07.840943Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2677dc3234e10a1ec97fdcd4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "527627540537365592",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:24.634726Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "497228243054695061",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:24.634726Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "519746241188648456",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:57.363248Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "518620341242913952",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:31:06.672955Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "515242641501267145",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:25:12.964534Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "500605942755567179",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:29.027676Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "523123888073168722",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:29.027676Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "510739041953634622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:29.027676Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "527627540537546492",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:06.821766Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "498354142899910651",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:06.821766Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Charged Up 16.7% $63.69 Derailment 16.7% $42.56 Liquidation 10.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 10.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 10.0% $6.27 | $64.86 +144.8% | $32.96 +24.4% | 50.0% | +84.5% | $26.50 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.46 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Continuum 10.0% $1.07 | $9.67 +146.8% | $4.87 +24.3% | 60.0% | +75.4% | $3.92 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $42.56 Charged Up 16.7% $22.79 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 10.0% $2.13 | $64.86 +233.3% | $23.31 +19.8% | 50.0% | +110.6% | $19.46 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Charged Up 13.3% $63.69 Derailment 13.3% $42.56 Liquidation 12.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 12.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 12.0% $6.27 | $64.86 +187.3% | $28.15 +24.6% | 40.0% | +98.9% | $22.58 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $42.56 Charged Up 20.0% $22.79 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 8.0% $2.13 | $64.86 +190.6% | $27.33 +22.4% | 60.0% | +96.6% | $22.32 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $42.56 Charged Up 23.3% $22.67 Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 6.0% $2.16 Angel Eyes 6.0% $2.09 | $64.86 +152.9% | $31.31 +22.1% | 46.7% | +82.3% | $25.65 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 10.0% $9.67 Charged Up 10.0% $7.44 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Continuum 14.0% $1.06 | $9.67 +229.0% | $3.58 +21.8% | 44.0% | +97.5% | $2.94 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $42.56 Charged Up 26.7% $22.67 Liquidation 4.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 4.0% $2.16 Angel Eyes 4.0% $2.09 | $64.86 +118.2% | $35.33 +18.9% | 53.3% | +68.0% | $29.72 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Charged Up 6.7% $7.46 Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Liquidation 16.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 16.0% $1.13 Continuum 16.0% $1.06 | $9.67 +283.9% | $2.94 +16.7% | 36.0% | +103.7% | $2.52 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Charged Up 3.3% $22.79 Derailment 3.3% $14.78 Whiteout 3.3% $9.67 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.13 | $22.79 +484.3% | $4.46 +14.5% | 28.0% | +112.9% | $3.90 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  20.0% $294.44 Ice Coaled  20.0% $52.00 Smoking Kills  20.0% $47.40 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $44.00 | $597.10 +279.0% | $206.99 +31.4% | 40.0% | +137.9% | $157.55 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 The Oligarch  40.0% $168.58 Full Throttle  40.0% $141.61 | $663.30 +182.3% | $256.74 +9.3% | 20.0% | +86.7% | $234.94 | — |