The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Focus
2x $1.51
Bullfrog
1x $1.61
Broken Record
1x $2.41
Red Wing
1x $3.00
2A2F
1x $2.69
Late Night Transit
1x $2.99
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
16.7% $64.86
Charged Up
16.7% $63.69
Derailment
16.7% $42.56
Liquidation
10.0% $19.42
Cat Fight
10.0% $6.50
Angel Eyes
10.0% $6.27
Max Win
$64.86 (+144.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$32.96 (+24.4%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+95.9%
Cost
$26.50
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $26.50
Ask Price EV $32.96 (+24.4%)
Bid Price EV $31.02 (+17.0%)
Ask Profit $6.46 (+24.4%)
Bid Profit $4.52 (+17.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.95 (+7.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$6.46
Bid Slippage Buffer +$4.52
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $64.86 (+144.8%)
Worst Case $6.09 (-77.0%)
Volatility +95.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$30.54
Avg Loss -$17.62
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.09 (-77.0%)
Std Dev $25.42
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 149h 53m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Factory New
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$2.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$2.62 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.69 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.99 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.11 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$3.18 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 52S //TOTAL COST $26.50 //ASK PRICE EV $32.96 //BID PRICE EV $31.02 //ASK PROFIT $6.46 (+24.4%) //BID PROFIT $4.52 (+17.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +95.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$64.86
+$38.36
+144.8%
$61.61
+$35.11
+132.5%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$63.69
+$37.19
+140.4%
$58.44
+$31.94
+120.5%
$5.25
8.2%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$42.56
+$16.06
+60.6%
$41.54
+$15.04
+56.8%
$1.02
2.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$19.42
-$7.08
-26.7%
$16.07
-$10.43
-39.4%
$3.35
17.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.50
-$20.00
-75.5%
$6.35
-$20.15
-76.0%
$0.15
2.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.27
-$20.23
-76.3%
$6.21
-$20.29
-76.6%
$0.06
1.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.14
-$20.36
-76.8%
$6.12
-$20.38
-76.9%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.09
-$20.41
-77.0%
$6.09
-$20.41
-77.0%
$0.00
0.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.048964999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 42.5615,
"optimistic_value": 42.32,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 41.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:42.474955Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.125753,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 63.693,
"optimistic_value": 62.72,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 58.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:32.306912Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 6.27,
"optimistic_value": 6.27,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:53.826234Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 19.4155,
"optimistic_value": 19.37,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 16.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:11:14.220331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 6.5005,
"optimistic_value": 6.49,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 6.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:39.876121Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 6.09,
"optimistic_value": 6.09,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 6.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:53.779343Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 6.1370000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:31.738839Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2677dc3234e10a1ec97fdcd4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "492724590627113649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:50.376710Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "515242641501200689",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:36.740148Z"
},
{
"price": 2.41,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "521997988014612582",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:42.415406Z"
},
{
"price": 2.62,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "518620288314721612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:50.376710Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "520872088107413652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:45.210872Z"
},
{
"price": 2.69,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "523123940968972186",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:00.073440Z"
},
{
"price": 2.99,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "514116688950627510",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:08.136931Z"
},
{
"price": 3.11,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "512990841907798343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:34.613138Z"
},
{
"price": 3.18,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "527627540537458508",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:48.990202Z"
},
{
"price": 3.38,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "659356415310663082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:34.613138Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.46 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Continuum 10.0% $1.07 | $9.67 +146.8% | $4.87 +24.3% | 60.0% | +75.4% | $3.92 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $42.56 Charged Up 16.7% $22.79 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 10.0% $2.13 | $64.86 +233.3% | $23.31 +19.8% | 50.0% | +110.6% | $19.46 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Charged Up 16.7% $5.48 Whiteout 16.7% $5.25 Liquidation 10.0% $2.49 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.96 Continuum 10.0% $0.93 | $7.13 +99.7% | $3.58 +0.4% | 50.0% | +60.5% | $3.57 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Charged Up 13.3% $63.69 Derailment 13.3% $42.56 Liquidation 12.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 12.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 12.0% $6.27 | $64.86 +187.3% | $28.15 +24.6% | 40.0% | +98.9% | $22.58 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $42.56 Charged Up 20.0% $22.79 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 8.0% $2.13 | $64.86 +190.6% | $27.33 +22.4% | 60.0% | +96.6% | $22.32 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $42.56 Charged Up 23.3% $22.67 Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 6.0% $2.16 Angel Eyes 6.0% $2.09 | $64.86 +152.9% | $31.31 +22.1% | 46.7% | +82.3% | $25.65 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 10.0% $9.67 Charged Up 10.0% $7.44 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Continuum 14.0% $1.06 | $9.67 +229.0% | $3.58 +21.8% | 44.0% | +97.5% | $2.94 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $42.56 Charged Up 26.7% $22.67 Liquidation 4.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 4.0% $2.16 Angel Eyes 4.0% $2.09 | $64.86 +118.2% | $35.33 +18.9% | 53.3% | +68.0% | $29.72 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Charged Up 6.7% $7.46 Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Liquidation 16.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 16.0% $1.13 Continuum 16.0% $1.06 | $9.67 +283.9% | $2.94 +16.7% | 36.0% | +103.7% | $2.52 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Charged Up 3.3% $22.79 Derailment 3.3% $14.78 Whiteout 3.3% $9.67 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.13 | $22.79 +484.3% | $4.46 +14.5% | 28.0% | +112.9% | $3.90 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  20.0% $294.44 Ice Coaled  20.0% $52.00 Smoking Kills  20.0% $47.40 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $44.00 | $597.10 +279.0% | $206.99 +31.4% | 40.0% | +137.9% | $157.55 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 The Oligarch  40.0% $168.58 Full Throttle  40.0% $141.61 | $663.30 +182.3% | $256.74 +9.3% | 20.0% | +86.7% | $234.94 | — |