The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Red Wing
2x $0.65
MAGnitude
2x $0.78
Focus
1x $1.51
2A2F
2x $2.68
Late Night Transit
1x $2.83
Green Line
1x $3.11
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
16.7% $64.86
Derailment
16.7% $42.56
Charged Up
16.7% $22.79
Liquidation
10.0% $7.67
Cat Fight
10.0% $2.21
Angel Eyes
10.0% $2.13
Max Win
$64.86 (+233.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$23.31 (+19.8%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+121.0%
Cost
$19.46
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.46
Ask Price EV $23.31 (+19.8%)
Bid Price EV $22.26 (+14.4%)
Ask Profit $3.85 (+19.8%)
Bid Profit $2.80 (+14.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.05 (+5.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.85
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.80
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $64.86 (+233.3%)
Worst Case $2.00 (-89.7%)
Volatility +121.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$23.94
Avg Loss -$16.25
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.00 (-89.7%)
Std Dev $23.54
Avg Norm Float 0.0956
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 149h 53m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | MAGnitude
—
Minimal Wear
$0.78 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | MAGnitude
—
Factory New
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.69 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.83 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.11 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$3.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 28S //TOTAL COST $19.46 //ASK PRICE EV $23.31 //BID PRICE EV $22.26 //ASK PROFIT $3.85 (+19.8%) //BID PROFIT $2.80 (+14.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +121.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$64.86
+$45.40
+233.3%
$61.61
+$42.15
+216.6%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$42.56
+$23.10
+118.7%
$41.54
+$22.08
+113.5%
$1.02
2.4%
—
WIN
16.7%
$22.79
+$3.33
+17.1%
$21.50
+$2.04
+10.5%
$1.29
5.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$7.67
-$11.79
-60.6%
$6.71
-$12.75
-65.5%
$0.96
12.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.21
-$17.25
-88.7%
$2.04
-$17.42
-89.5%
$0.17
7.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.13
-$17.33
-89.1%
$2.03
-$17.43
-89.6%
$0.10
4.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.05
-$17.41
-89.5%
$2.03
-$17.43
-89.6%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.00
-$17.46
-89.7%
$1.99
-$17.47
-89.8%
$0.01
0.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.066948,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 42.5615,
"optimistic_value": 42.32,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 41.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:42.474955Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1499016,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.09564,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 22.7875,
"optimistic_value": 22.77,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 21.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:43.119528Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09564,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 2.1270000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 2.12,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:14.087032Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09564,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 7.667,
"optimistic_value": 7.66,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.771865Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09564,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 2.2075,
"optimistic_value": 2.19,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:25:27.144581Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09564,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 2.0505,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:24.533790Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09564,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 2,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:55.834558Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2677dc3234e10a1ec97fdcd4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "514116636505205970",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:52.591893Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "519745391330807492",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:52.591893Z"
},
{
"price": 0.78,
"skin_id": "skin-e8947585ba24",
"listing_id": "519745391315593064",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8947585ba24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:54.258043Z"
},
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e8947585ba24",
"listing_id": "508487242222011386",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8947585ba24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:01.462173Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "492724590627113649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:50.376710Z"
},
{
"price": 2.68,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "502857742726685980",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:00.073440Z"
},
{
"price": 2.69,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "523123940968972186",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:00.073440Z"
},
{
"price": 2.83,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "519746241188631932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:08.136931Z"
},
{
"price": 3.11,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "512990841907798343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:34.613138Z"
},
{
"price": 3.18,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "527627540537458508",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:48.990202Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Charged Up 16.7% $63.69 Derailment 16.7% $42.56 Liquidation 10.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 10.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 10.0% $6.27 | $64.86 +144.8% | $32.96 +24.4% | 50.0% | +84.5% | $26.50 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.46 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Continuum 10.0% $1.07 | $9.67 +146.8% | $4.87 +24.3% | 60.0% | +75.4% | $3.92 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Charged Up 16.7% $5.48 Whiteout 16.7% $5.25 Liquidation 10.0% $2.49 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.96 Continuum 10.0% $0.93 | $7.13 +99.7% | $3.58 +0.4% | 50.0% | +60.5% | $3.57 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Charged Up 13.3% $63.69 Derailment 13.3% $42.56 Liquidation 12.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 12.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 12.0% $6.27 | $64.86 +187.3% | $28.15 +24.6% | 40.0% | +98.9% | $22.58 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $42.56 Charged Up 20.0% $22.79 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 8.0% $2.13 | $64.86 +190.6% | $27.33 +22.4% | 60.0% | +96.6% | $22.32 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $42.56 Charged Up 23.3% $22.67 Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 6.0% $2.16 Angel Eyes 6.0% $2.09 | $64.86 +152.9% | $31.31 +22.1% | 46.7% | +82.3% | $25.65 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 10.0% $9.67 Charged Up 10.0% $7.44 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Continuum 14.0% $1.06 | $9.67 +229.0% | $3.58 +21.8% | 44.0% | +97.5% | $2.94 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $42.56 Charged Up 26.7% $22.67 Liquidation 4.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 4.0% $2.16 Angel Eyes 4.0% $2.09 | $64.86 +118.2% | $35.33 +18.9% | 53.3% | +68.0% | $29.72 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Charged Up 6.7% $7.46 Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Liquidation 16.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 16.0% $1.13 Continuum 16.0% $1.06 | $9.67 +283.9% | $2.94 +16.7% | 36.0% | +103.7% | $2.52 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Charged Up 3.3% $22.79 Derailment 3.3% $14.78 Whiteout 3.3% $9.67 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.13 | $22.79 +484.3% | $4.46 +14.5% | 28.0% | +112.9% | $3.90 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  20.0% $294.44 Ice Coaled  20.0% $52.00 Smoking Kills  20.0% $47.40 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $44.00 | $597.10 +279.0% | $206.99 +31.4% | 40.0% | +137.9% | $157.55 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 The Oligarch  40.0% $168.58 Full Throttle  40.0% $141.61 | $663.30 +182.3% | $256.74 +9.3% | 20.0% | +86.7% | $234.94 | — |