The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Caged
2x $0.18
Red Wing
2x $0.19
Trigger Discipline
1x $0.26
Late Night Transit
2x $0.50
Green Line
3x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
16.7% $9.68
Charged Up
16.7% $7.55
Derailment
16.7% $7.13
Liquidation
10.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
10.0% $1.13
Continuum
10.0% $1.08
Max Win
$9.68 (+148.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.89 (+25.3%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+87.9%
Cost
$3.90
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.90
Ask Price EV $4.89 (+25.3%)
Bid Price EV $4.65 (+19.3%)
Ask Profit $0.99 (+25.3%)
Bid Profit $0.75 (+19.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.24 (+6.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.99
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.75
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $9.68 (+148.1%)
Worst Case $1.01 (-74.1%)
Volatility +87.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.53
Avg Loss -$2.83
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.01 (-74.1%)
Std Dev $3.43
Avg Norm Float 0.3392
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 148h 21m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Trigger Discipline
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.62 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 32M 57S //TOTAL COST $3.90 //ASK PRICE EV $4.89 //BID PRICE EV $4.65 //ASK PROFIT $0.99 (+25.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.75 (+19.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $9.68 //VOLATILITY +87.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$9.68
+$5.78
+148.1%
$9.66
+$5.76
+147.7%
$0.02
0.2%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$7.55
+$3.65
+93.5%
$7.29
+$3.39
+86.9%
$0.26
3.4%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$7.13
+$3.23
+82.8%
$6.40
+$2.50
+64.1%
$0.73
10.2%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$4.01
+$0.11
+2.9%
$3.61
-$0.29
-7.4%
$0.40
10.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.13
-$2.77
-71.0%
$1.04
-$2.86
-73.3%
$0.09
8.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.08
-$2.82
-72.2%
$0.96
-$2.94
-75.4%
$0.12
11.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.04
-$2.86
-73.2%
$1.00
-$2.90
-74.4%
$0.04
4.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.01
-$2.89
-74.1%
$0.99
-$2.91
-74.6%
$0.02
2.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.23741199999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.3788104,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 9.677,
"optimistic_value": 9.67,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 9.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:14.850350Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.33916,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 7.547999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 7.52,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 7.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:51.132453Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.33916,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 1.0105,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:18.380896Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.33916,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 4.0145,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:12.174520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.33916,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 1.1305,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:16:13.485553Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.33916,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 1.044,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:06.216055Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.33916,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 1.0835000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.08,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:14.729894Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2677dc3234e10a1ec97fdcd4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "494976390476880294",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:20.585048Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "497228243054686133",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:18:08.492686Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "515242641501267145",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:20.585048Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "511864091802652641",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:18:08.492686Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-ab9a15ef8110",
"listing_id": "508487023589045078",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab9a15ef8110.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:15:20.788069Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "523123888073168722",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:08.322796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "503983589619599383",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:08.322796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "520872141037677576",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "490472790737415795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.62,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "524249840858869023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Charged Up 16.7% $65.07 Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.39 Liquidation 10.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 10.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 10.0% $6.27 | $65.07 +145.8% | $33.49 +26.5% | 50.0% | +85.9% | $26.47 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.39 Charged Up 16.7% $22.78 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 10.0% $2.13 | $64.86 +230.8% | $23.61 +20.4% | 50.0% | +110.9% | $19.61 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.55 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Continuum 12.0% $1.08 | $9.67 +185.4% | $4.24 +25.1% | 52.0% | +87.9% | $3.39 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.68 Charged Up 20.0% $7.55 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Continuum 8.0% $1.08 | $9.68 +116.0% | $5.53 +23.5% | 60.0% | +63.4% | $4.48 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 10.0% $9.68 Charged Up 10.0% $7.55 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Continuum 14.0% $1.08 | $9.68 +229.1% | $3.60 +22.3% | 44.0% | +97.8% | $2.94 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.67 Charged Up 23.3% $7.55 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Continuum 6.0% $1.08 | $9.67 +88.6% | $6.18 +20.5% | 70.0% | +51.1% | $5.13 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $43.71 Charged Up 26.7% $22.86 Liquidation 4.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 4.0% $2.19 Angel Eyes 4.0% $2.13 | $64.86 +113.3% | $35.69 +17.4% | 53.3% | +66.5% | $30.41 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Charged Up 6.7% $65.07 Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $44.39 Liquidation 16.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 16.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 16.0% $6.27 | $65.07 +304.4% | $18.73 +16.4% | 36.0% | +120.8% | $16.09 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Charged Up 3.3% $22.78 Derailment 3.3% $14.86 Whiteout 3.3% $9.68 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.13 | $22.78 +466.7% | $4.47 +11.1% | 28.0% | +109.6% | $4.02 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  20.0% $294.44 Ice Coaled  20.0% $52.05 Smoking Kills  20.0% $47.40 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $44.00 | $597.10 +285.5% | $207.00 +33.7% | 40.0% | +140.2% | $154.88 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Field-Tested | LongDog  20.0% $323.88 The Oligarch  40.0% $101.74 Full Throttle  40.0% $65.47 | $323.88 +164.8% | $131.66 +7.6% | 20.0% | +79.7% | $122.33 | — |