The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Yeti Camo
2x $0.29
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.34
Royal Baroque
2x $0.37
Mint Fan
2x $0.52
Earth Mandala
1x $0.46
Warm Blooded
1x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
10.0% $7.38
Midnight Laminate
40.0% $6.93
Sleeping Potion
10.0% $2.60
Royal Guard
40.0% $1.31
Max Win
$7.38 (+68.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.29 (-1.9%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+62.9%
Cost
$4.38
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.38
Ask Price EV $4.29 (-1.9%)
Bid Price EV $3.67 (-16.1%)
Ask Profit $-0.09 (-1.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.71 (-16.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.62 (+14.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.09
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.71
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $7.38 (+68.5%)
Worst Case $1.31 (-70.1%)
Volatility +62.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$2.64
Avg Loss -$2.81
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.31 (-70.1%)
Std Dev $2.75
Avg Norm Float 0.4452
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 140h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 42S //TOTAL COST $4.38 //ASK PRICE EV $4.29 //BID PRICE EV $3.67 //ASK PROFIT $-0.09 (-1.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.71 (-16.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $7.38 //VOLATILITY +62.9% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$7.38
+$3.00
+68.5%
$7.16
+$2.78
+63.5%
$0.22
3.0%
—
BIG WIN
40.0%
$6.93
+$2.55
+58.2%
$5.76
+$1.38
+31.5%
$1.17
16.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.60
-$1.78
-40.6%
$2.25
-$2.13
-48.6%
$0.35
13.5%
—
NUKE
40.0%
$1.31
-$3.07
-70.1%
$1.07
-$3.31
-75.6%
$0.24
18.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.3339225,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.267138,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.311,
"optimistic_value": 1.29,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:17:36.006091Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.31166099999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.38,
"optimistic_value": 7.31,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 7.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:55:15.724732Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.31166099999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.6015,
"optimistic_value": 2.57,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:48.251879Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_24ce4b09877d441596bc74e1",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "505109489448724844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:45.751765Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724538182088361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:45.751765Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:07.982221Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "524249787961450167",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:34:30.646863Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "512990789044788503",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:34:30.646863Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "500605837397096555",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:53.894134Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "521997191213494362",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:47.092356Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "514116636507281046",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:53.894134Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "494976390476572746",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:12.357849Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "493850490549989488",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:12.837350Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Exothermic 10.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.94 | $38.92 +79.0% | $26.29 +20.9% | 60.0% | +51.4% | $21.74 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 10.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $2.13 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.31 | $9.85 +162.0% | $4.50 +19.7% | 50.0% | +83.6% | $3.76 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Exothermic 10.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.73 | $18.08 +73.5% | $12.04 +15.5% | 60.0% | +53.2% | $10.42 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.13 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.31 | $9.85 +179.1% | $4.69 +32.7% | 50.0% | +92.9% | $3.53 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Exothermic 5.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.61 | $38.92 +80.3% | $26.21 +21.4% | 55.0% | +55.6% | $21.59 | — |