The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred +28.6%Factory New -6.1%Field-Tested +17.8%Minimal Wear +21.4%Well-Worn +4.3%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Cobalt Paisley

1x $0.28

Yeti Camo

3x $0.28

Reef Grief

1x $0.29

Mint Fan

2x $0.39

Royal Baroque

1x $0.41

Fraise Crane

1x $0.37

↓

Possible Outputs

Exothermic

10.0% $9.85

Midnight Laminate

40.0% $6.94

Sleeping Potion

10.0% $2.13

Royal Guard

40.0% $1.28

Max Win

$9.85 (+182.2%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.49 (+28.6%)

Win %

50.0%

Volatility

+90.4%

Cost

$3.49

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $3.49

Ask Price EV $4.49 (+28.6%)

Bid Price EV $3.70 (+6.1%)

Ask Profit $1.00 (+28.6%)

Bid Profit $0.21 (+6.1%)

Liquidity Gap $0.78 (+22.5%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.00

Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.21

Risk

Win Probability 50.0%

Loss Probability 50.0%

Best Case $9.85 (+182.2%)

Worst Case $1.28 (-63.3%)

Volatility +90.4%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%

Avg Win +$4.03

Avg Loss -$2.04

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.28 (-63.3%)

Std Dev $3.16

Avg Norm Float 0.5938

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 23m

Oldest Output Price 140h 7m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.28 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.28 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.29 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.29 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.32 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.39 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.41 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.43 Float: HIDDEN

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.43 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 53S //TOTAL COST $3.49 //ASK PRICE EV $4.49 //BID PRICE EV $3.70 //ASK PROFIT $1.00 (+28.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.21 (+6.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +90.4% //

Possible Outputs · 4

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.4453275,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 6.9435,
      "optimistic_value": 6.8,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 6.03,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:56:54.599031Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.356262,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 1.2805,
      "optimistic_value": 1.27,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 1.07,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:54:13.533711Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.415639,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 9.8505,
      "optimistic_value": 9.77,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 6.64,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.415639,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.1285,
      "optimistic_value": 2.09,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 1.99,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:25:07.254980Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_24ce4b09877d441596bc74e1",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.28,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "523123888072060210",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:37.429509Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.28,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "528753387757177857",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:02:09.283098Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.29,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "507361289452853257",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:36.685498Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.29,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "518620288313610724",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:02:09.283098Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "492724538182088361",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:02:09.283098Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "491598690699350150",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:29.196413Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "516368488724553686",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:59.143144Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.43,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "502857637417470988",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:29.196413Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "501731789729082221",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:47:48.054913Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.43,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "515242588554508309",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:00.906408Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Exothermic 10.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.61	$38.92 +80.6%	$26.16 +21.4%	60.0%	+52.6%	$21.55	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Exothermic 10.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.73	$18.08 +76.9%	$12.04 +17.8%	60.0%	+54.2%	$10.22	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Exothermic 10.0% $7.91 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.93 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $2.61 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.28	$7.91 +90.3%	$4.34 +4.3%	50.0%	+68.0%	$4.16	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.13 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.28	$9.85 +179.8%	$4.68 +32.8%	50.0%	+93.5%	$3.52	—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Exothermic 5.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.61	$38.92 +80.3%	$26.21 +21.4%	55.0%	+55.6%	$21.59	—