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The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Battle-Scarred +19.7%Factory New -6.3%Field-Tested +15.5%Minimal Wear +20.9%Well-Worn -1.9%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Royal Baroque
P2000 | Royal Baroque
3x $0.39
Mint Fan
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
3x $0.52
Reef Grief
P90 | Reef Grief
2x $1.31
Earth Mandala
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
1x $1.07
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
1x $1.26
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
40.0% $18.08
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
10.0% $13.33
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
10.0% $11.82
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
40.0% $5.73
Max Win
$18.08 (+73.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$12.04 (+15.5%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+53.2%
Cost
$10.42
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $10.42
Ask Price EV $12.04 (+15.5%)
Bid Price EV $10.30 (-1.1%)
Ask Profit $1.62 (+15.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.12 (-1.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.74 (+16.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.62
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.12
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+73.5%)
Worst Case $5.73 (-45.0%)
Volatility +53.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$5.82
Avg Loss -$4.69
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.73 (-45.0%)
Std Dev $5.54
Avg Norm Float 0.1991
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 139h 53m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)
$1.10 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)
$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)
$1.32 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 43S //TOTAL COST $10.42 //ASK PRICE EV $12.04 //BID PRICE EV $10.30 //ASK PROFIT $1.62 (+15.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.12 (-1.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +53.2% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
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Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
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Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.14934,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 18.0765,
      "optimistic_value": 17.94,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 15.21,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.119472,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 5.7275,
      "optimistic_value": 5.64,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 5.11,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:10:14.842875Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.13938399999999998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 13.326500000000001,
      "optimistic_value": 13.05,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 12.04,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:45:12.430273Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.13938399999999998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 11.8215,
      "optimistic_value": 11.79,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 9.69,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_24ce4b09877d441596bc74e1",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "512990789044788503",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:34:30.646863Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "500605837397096555",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:53.894134Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.61,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "514116636507281046",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:53.894134Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.1,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "514116688949444010",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:55:18.454797Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "630083017718303094",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:51.874992Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "630083017713403458",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:51.874992Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "498354037509124375",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:32.207985Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.44,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "652601015909084844",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:32.207985Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.07,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "517494388633344766",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:50.353846Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "510738823413937978",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:57.378658Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
40.0% $38.92
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
10.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
10.0% $24.63
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
40.0% $13.94
$38.92
+79.0%
$26.29
+20.9%
60.0%+51.4%$21.74—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
10.0% $9.85
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
40.0% $6.94
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
10.0% $2.13
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
40.0% $1.31
$9.85
+162.0%
$4.50
+19.7%
50.0%+83.6%$3.76—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $9.85
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
35.0% $6.94
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $2.13
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
35.0% $1.31
$9.85
+179.1%
$4.69
+32.7%
50.0%+92.9%$3.53—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
45.0% $38.92
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
5.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
5.0% $24.63
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
45.0% $13.61
$38.92
+80.3%
$26.21
+21.4%
55.0%+55.6%$21.59—
FS

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