The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Royal Baroque
4x $1.44
Yeti Camo
1x $1.92
Reef Grief
1x $2.23
Cobalt Paisley
2x $2.80
Warm Blooded
2x $2.70
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
40.0% $38.92
Exothermic
10.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
10.0% $24.63
Royal Guard
40.0% $13.94
Max Win
$38.92 (+38.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$26.29 (-6.3%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+39.9%
Cost
$28.06
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $28.06
Ask Price EV $26.29 (-6.3%)
Bid Price EV $23.86 (-15.0%)
Ask Profit $-1.77 (-6.3%)
Bid Profit $-4.20 (-15.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.42 (+8.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.77
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.20
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+38.7%)
Worst Case $13.94 (-50.3%)
Volatility +39.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$10.86
Avg Loss -$10.19
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.94 (-50.3%)
Std Dev $11.18
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 8m
Oldest Output Price 93h 21m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.23 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Factory New
$2.80 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Factory New
$3.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 09S //TOTAL COST $28.06 //ASK PRICE EV $26.29 //BID PRICE EV $23.86 //ASK PROFIT $-1.77 (-6.3%) //BID PROFIT $-4.20 (-15.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +39.9% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
40.0%
$38.92
+$10.86
+38.7%
$34.38
+$6.32
+22.5%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$26.79
-$1.27
-4.5%
$25.88
-$2.18
-7.8%
$0.91
3.4%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$24.63
-$3.43
-12.2%
$22.28
-$5.78
-20.6%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE
40.0%
$13.94
-$14.12
-50.3%
$13.24
-$14.82
-52.8%
$0.70
5.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.041988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.943999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.86,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:11.791108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:32.067858Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_24ce4b09877d441596bc74e1",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:32.207985Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:32.207985Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "493850490549146908",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:38.670787Z"
},
{
"price": 2.23,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "519746135815383200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:02.360516Z"
},
{
"price": 2.8,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "496102237884862331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:10.129895Z"
},
{
"price": 3.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "619949307134804143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:10.129895Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:25.333240Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "506234592363569076",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:25.333240Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:54.177511Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:54.177511Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Exothermic 10.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.94 | $38.92 +79.0% | $26.29 +20.9% | 60.0% | +51.4% | $21.74 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 10.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $2.13 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.31 | $9.85 +162.0% | $4.50 +19.7% | 50.0% | +83.6% | $3.76 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Exothermic 10.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.73 | $18.08 +73.5% | $12.04 +15.5% | 60.0% | +53.2% | $10.42 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.13 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.31 | $9.85 +179.1% | $4.69 +32.7% | 50.0% | +92.9% | $3.53 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Exothermic 5.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.61 | $38.92 +80.3% | $26.21 +21.4% | 55.0% | +55.6% | $21.59 | — |