The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Shadow Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Slag
2x $0.16
Hideout
2x $0.18
Light Box
3x $0.21
Motorized
1x $0.31
Dark Sigil
1x $0.32
Scumbria
1x $0.49
↓
Possible Outputs
Special Delivery
2.5% $9.16
Stone Cold
2.5% $7.39
Nebula Crusader
2.5% $4.54
Wingshot
2.5% $4.49
Block-18
18.0% $4.19
Etch Lord
18.0% $2.28
Max Win
$9.16 (+262.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.71 (+7.2%)
Win %
28.0%
Volatility
+65.9%
Cost
$2.53
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.53
Ask Price EV $2.71 (+7.2%)
Bid Price EV $2.39 (-5.5%)
Ask Profit $0.18 (+7.2%)
Bid Profit $-0.14 (-5.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.32 (+12.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.18
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.14
Risk
Win Probability 28.0%
Loss Probability 72.0%
Best Case $9.16 (+262.0%)
Worst Case $1.47 (-41.9%)
Volatility +65.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 36.0%
Avg Win +$2.45
Avg Loss -$0.70
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.47 (-41.9%)
Std Dev $1.67
Avg Norm Float 0.2176
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 144h 56m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Scumbria
—
Well-Worn
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 14S //TOTAL COST $2.53 //ASK PRICE EV $2.71 //BID PRICE EV $2.39 //ASK PROFIT $0.18 (+7.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.14 (-5.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 28.0% //BEST CASE $9.16 //VOLATILITY +65.9% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$9.16
+$6.63
+262.0%
$5.26
+$2.73
+107.9%
$3.90
42.6%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$7.39
+$4.86
+192.0%
$6.13
+$3.60
+142.3%
$1.26
17.0%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$4.54
+$2.01
+79.2%
$3.60
+$1.07
+42.3%
$0.94
20.6%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$4.49
+$1.96
+77.3%
$4.00
+$1.47
+58.1%
$0.49
10.8%
—
BIG WIN
18.0%
$4.19
+$1.66
+65.6%
$3.88
+$1.35
+53.4%
$0.31
7.4%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$2.28
-$0.25
-9.9%
$2.08
-$0.45
-17.8%
$0.20
8.8%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$2.02
-$0.51
-20.2%
$1.86
-$0.67
-26.5%
$0.16
7.9%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$1.56
-$0.97
-38.3%
$1.43
-$1.10
-43.5%
$0.13
8.3%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.47
-$1.06
-41.9%
$1.39
-$1.14
-45.1%
$0.08
5.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-9|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.21759,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 1.47,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 1.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:12:03.099285Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14619328125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.21759,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 2.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:08:48.401801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.21759,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 1.56,
"optimistic_value": 1.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 1.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:04:39.434678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.1346577474,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.0185,
"optimistic_value": 1.98,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:45.638633Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.195831,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3d7cafe33cee",
"realistic_value": 7.3875,
"optimistic_value": 7.3,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Stone Cold",
"conservative_value": 6.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:23:25.854034Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3d7cafe33cee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.21759,
"output_skin_id": "skin-fe2ecdf6f921",
"realistic_value": 4.535,
"optimistic_value": 4.5,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Nebula Crusader",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:21:56.223577Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fe2ecdf6f921.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.1349058,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3994ae535237",
"realistic_value": 9.15925,
"optimistic_value": 9,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Special Delivery",
"conservative_value": 5.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:49:33.386791Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3994ae535237.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.195831,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aa792cc15a05",
"realistic_value": 4.4865,
"optimistic_value": 4.42,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Wingshot",
"conservative_value": 4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:59.149320Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aa792cc15a05.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_23dc9480aca6ad0809982589",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "526501587737921273",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:20.187620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "528753387756713457",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:02:02.277663Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "496101493247435159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:20.187620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "514116523129581066",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:02:02.277663Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116523130036718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:20:12.281482Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:20:12.281482Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:20:12.281482Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "505109489448921836",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:19:38.086604Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "525375522204066055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:09:17.891573Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5e6f7c90cb",
"listing_id": "497228190141536321",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Well-Worn)",
"name": "XM1014 | Scumbria",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5e6f7c90cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:34.912497Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:9+collection-set-community-9:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Shadow Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 2.5% $19.97 Wingshot 2.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 2.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 2.5% $9.05 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +492.7% | $4.18 +24.0% | 46.0% | +84.8% | $3.37 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Shadow Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Stone Cold 2.5% $55.82 Nebula Crusader 2.5% $24.43 Special Delivery 2.5% $23.45 Wingshot 2.5% $22.32 Etch Lord 18.0% $13.06 Just Smile 18.0% $9.49 | $55.82 +414.4% | $10.97 +1.1% | 28.0% | +73.2% | $10.85 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Shadow Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 5.0% $19.97 Wingshot 5.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 5.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 5.0% $9.05 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +417.5% | $5.04 +30.5% | 52.0% | +96.8% | $3.86 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Shadow Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 7.5% $19.97 Wingshot 7.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 7.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 7.5% $9.05 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +320.5% | $5.90 +24.2% | 30.0% | +89.5% | $4.75 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Shadow Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 10.0% $19.97 Wingshot 10.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 10.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 10.0% $9.05 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +245.6% | $6.76 +16.9% | 40.0% | +78.8% | $5.78 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Shadow Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 12.5% $19.97 Wingshot 12.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 12.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 12.5% $9.05 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +191.6% | $7.62 +11.2% | 50.0% | +68.9% | $6.85 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Shadow Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 15.0% $19.97 Wingshot 15.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 15.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 15.0% $9.05 Etch Lord 8.0% $4.45 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +151.9% | $8.47 +6.9% | 60.0% | +60.3% | $7.93 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Shadow Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Big Iron  3.3% $59.58 Frontside Misty  3.3% $53.09 Black Lotus  30.0% $37.06 Flux  3.3% $24.56 Olympus  30.0% $15.72 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 | $59.58 +167.7% | $24.88 +11.8% | 40.0% | +57.9% | $22.26 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Shadow Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear ST | Kill Confirmed  20.0% $447.62 Golden Coil  20.0% $435.84 Inheritance  30.0% $228.37 Chrome Cannon  30.0% $101.04 | $447.62 +82.2% | $275.51 +12.1% | 40.0% | +58.8% | $245.73 | — |