The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Shadow Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Slag
2x $0.38
Dezastre
4x $0.48
Light Box
1x $0.76
Dark Sigil
1x $0.85
Hideout
1x $1.51
Scumbria
1x $1.51
↓
Possible Outputs
Stone Cold
2.5% $55.82
Nebula Crusader
2.5% $24.43
Special Delivery
2.5% $23.45
Wingshot
2.5% $22.32
Etch Lord
18.0% $13.06
Just Smile
18.0% $9.49
Max Win
$55.82 (+414.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.97 (+1.1%)
Win %
28.0%
Volatility
+79.3%
Cost
$10.85
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $10.85
Ask Price EV $10.97 (+1.1%)
Bid Price EV $9.39 (-13.4%)
Ask Profit $0.12 (+1.1%)
Bid Profit $-1.46 (-13.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.57 (+14.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.12
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.46
Risk
Win Probability 28.0%
Loss Probability 72.0%
Best Case $55.82 (+414.4%)
Worst Case $4.09 (-62.3%)
Volatility +79.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 36.0%
Avg Win +$8.80
Avg Loss -$3.26
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.09 (-62.3%)
Std Dev $8.61
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 144h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.10 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Scumbria
—
Minimal Wear
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 46S //TOTAL COST $10.85 //ASK PRICE EV $10.97 //BID PRICE EV $9.39 //ASK PROFIT $0.12 (+1.1%) //BID PROFIT $-1.46 (-13.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 28.0% //BEST CASE $55.82 //VOLATILITY +79.3% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$55.82
+$44.97
+414.4%
$46.01
+$35.16
+324.1%
$9.81
17.6%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$24.43
+$13.58
+125.2%
$19.52
+$8.67
+79.9%
$4.91
20.1%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$23.45
+$12.60
+116.1%
$11.36
+$0.51
+4.7%
$12.09
51.6%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$22.32
+$11.47
+105.7%
$19.45
+$8.60
+79.3%
$2.87
12.9%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$13.06
+$2.21
+20.3%
$12.03
+$1.18
+10.9%
$1.03
7.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$9.49
-$1.36
-12.6%
$7.84
-$3.01
-27.7%
$1.65
17.4%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$8.90
-$1.95
-18.0%
$7.77
-$3.08
-28.4%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$7.89
-$2.96
-27.3%
$7.43
-$3.42
-31.5%
$0.46
5.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.09
-$6.76
-62.3%
$3.74
-$7.11
-65.5%
$0.35
8.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-9|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:25.464728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.04694390625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.4875,
"optimistic_value": 9.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:29.021487Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0432397482,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.0875,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:48.649788Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06288300000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3d7cafe33cee",
"realistic_value": 55.8175,
"optimistic_value": 55.24,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Stone Cold",
"conservative_value": 46.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:31.959846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3d7cafe33cee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-fe2ecdf6f921",
"realistic_value": 24.4315,
"optimistic_value": 23,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Nebula Crusader",
"conservative_value": 19.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:39:48.528945Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fe2ecdf6f921.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0433194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3994ae535237",
"realistic_value": 23.4495,
"optimistic_value": 18.91,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Special Delivery",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T09:05:20.986759Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3994ae535237.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06288300000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aa792cc15a05",
"realistic_value": 22.3235,
"optimistic_value": 20.99,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Wingshot",
"conservative_value": 19.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:47:50.619239Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aa792cc15a05.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_23dc9480aca6ad0809982589",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "508486392212133206",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:13.182530Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "636838417157749708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:59.966069Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "493850324808131632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:13.182530Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:59.966069Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:08:55.582322Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:39.556171Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "519746022669746780",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:08:50.628762Z"
},
{
"price": 2.1,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "499479937455276409",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:14.176893Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "528753335311947405",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:14.176893Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5e6f7c90cb",
"listing_id": "511864091771105733",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Scumbria",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5e6f7c90cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:51.885136Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:9+collection-set-community-9:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Shadow Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 2.5% $19.97 Wingshot 2.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 2.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 2.5% $9.05 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +492.7% | $4.18 +24.0% | 46.0% | +84.8% | $3.37 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Shadow Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Special Delivery 2.5% $9.16 Stone Cold 2.5% $7.39 Nebula Crusader 2.5% $4.54 Wingshot 2.5% $4.49 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Etch Lord 18.0% $2.28 | $9.16 +262.0% | $2.71 +7.2% | 28.0% | +58.3% | $2.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Shadow Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 5.0% $19.97 Wingshot 5.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 5.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 5.0% $9.05 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +417.5% | $5.04 +30.5% | 52.0% | +96.8% | $3.86 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Shadow Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 7.5% $19.97 Wingshot 7.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 7.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 7.5% $9.05 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +320.5% | $5.90 +24.2% | 30.0% | +89.5% | $4.75 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Shadow Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 10.0% $19.97 Wingshot 10.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 10.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 10.0% $9.05 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +245.6% | $6.76 +16.9% | 40.0% | +78.8% | $5.78 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Shadow Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 12.5% $19.97 Wingshot 12.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 12.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 12.5% $9.05 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +191.6% | $7.62 +11.2% | 50.0% | +68.9% | $6.85 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Shadow Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 15.0% $19.97 Wingshot 15.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 15.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 15.0% $9.05 Etch Lord 8.0% $4.45 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +151.9% | $8.47 +6.9% | 60.0% | +60.3% | $7.93 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Shadow Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Big Iron  3.3% $59.58 Frontside Misty  3.3% $53.09 Black Lotus  30.0% $37.06 Flux  3.3% $24.56 Olympus  30.0% $15.72 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 | $59.58 +167.7% | $24.88 +11.8% | 40.0% | +57.9% | $22.26 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Shadow Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear ST | Kill Confirmed  20.0% $447.62 Golden Coil  20.0% $435.84 Inheritance  30.0% $228.37 Chrome Cannon  30.0% $101.04 | $447.62 +82.2% | $275.51 +12.1% | 40.0% | +58.8% | $245.73 | — |