The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Shadow Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Light Box
3x $0.21
Hideout
3x $0.29
Dark Sigil
2x $0.32
Motorized
1x $0.35
Scumbria
1x $0.66
↓
Possible Outputs
Stone Cold
2.5% $19.97
Wingshot
2.5% $9.46
Special Delivery
2.5% $9.16
Nebula Crusader
2.5% $9.05
Etch Lord
18.0% $4.45
Block-18
18.0% $4.19
Max Win
$19.97 (+503.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.18 (+26.3%)
Win %
64.0%
Volatility
+93.4%
Cost
$3.31
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.31
Ask Price EV $4.18 (+26.3%)
Bid Price EV $3.60 (+8.7%)
Ask Profit $0.87 (+26.3%)
Bid Profit $0.29 (+8.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.58 (+17.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.87
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.29
Risk
Win Probability 64.0%
Loss Probability 36.0%
Best Case $19.97 (+503.5%)
Worst Case $2.02 (-39.0%)
Volatility +93.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 18.0%
Avg Win +$1.91
Avg Loss -$0.99
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.02 (-39.0%)
Std Dev $3.09
Avg Norm Float 0.1488
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 143h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Scumbria
—
Field-Tested
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 16M 45S //TOTAL COST $3.31 //ASK PRICE EV $4.18 //BID PRICE EV $3.60 //ASK PROFIT $0.87 (+26.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.29 (+8.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 64.0% //BEST CASE $19.97 //VOLATILITY +93.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$19.97
+$16.66
+503.5%
$15.70
+$12.39
+374.3%
$4.27
21.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$9.46
+$6.15
+185.7%
$7.60
+$4.29
+129.6%
$1.86
19.6%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$9.16
+$5.85
+176.7%
$5.26
+$1.95
+58.9%
$3.90
42.6%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$9.05
+$5.74
+173.5%
$6.99
+$3.68
+111.2%
$2.06
22.8%
—
WIN
18.0%
$4.45
+$1.14
+34.4%
$3.86
+$0.55
+16.6%
$0.59
13.2%
—
WIN
18.0%
$4.19
+$0.88
+26.6%
$3.88
+$0.57
+17.2%
$0.31
7.4%
—
PAPER WIN
18.0%
$3.32
+$0.01
+0.2%
$2.85
-$0.46
-13.9%
$0.47
14.1%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$2.63
-$0.68
-20.5%
$2.60
-$0.71
-21.5%
$0.03
1.2%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$2.02
-$1.29
-39.0%
$1.86
-$1.45
-43.8%
$0.16
7.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-9|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14884,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 2.6305,
"optimistic_value": 2.62,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:12:57.221700Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.100001875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14884,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 4.4475,
"optimistic_value": 4.43,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 3.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:47.747830Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14884,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 3.3175,
"optimistic_value": 3.3,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:25.258742Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0921111224,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.0185,
"optimistic_value": 1.98,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:52.072510Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.133956,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3d7cafe33cee",
"realistic_value": 19.9745,
"optimistic_value": 18.83,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Stone Cold",
"conservative_value": 15.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:42.860043Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3d7cafe33cee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.14884,
"output_skin_id": "skin-fe2ecdf6f921",
"realistic_value": 9.0515,
"optimistic_value": 8.88,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Nebula Crusader",
"conservative_value": 6.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:35.831229Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fe2ecdf6f921.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0922808,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3994ae535237",
"realistic_value": 9.15925,
"optimistic_value": 9,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Special Delivery",
"conservative_value": 5.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:49:33.386791Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3994ae535237.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.133956,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aa792cc15a05",
"realistic_value": 9.457,
"optimistic_value": 9.38,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Wingshot",
"conservative_value": 7.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:50:05.022073Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aa792cc15a05.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_23dc9480aca6ad0809982589",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116523130036718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:21.375196Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:21.375196Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:21.375196Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "510738989040894814",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:29.147912Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "498354089953381135",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:29.147912Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "525375522204066055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:48.313410Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "520872088106698692",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:29.147912Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:22.225185Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505108692508590428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:48.313410Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5e6f7c90cb",
"listing_id": "632334817630784387",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Scumbria",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5e6f7c90cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:27.570662Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:9+collection-set-community-9:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Shadow Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Special Delivery 2.5% $9.16 Stone Cold 2.5% $7.39 Nebula Crusader 2.5% $4.54 Wingshot 2.5% $4.49 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Etch Lord 18.0% $2.28 | $9.16 +266.4% | $2.71 +8.5% | 28.0% | +59.0% | $2.50 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Shadow Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Stone Cold 2.5% $55.82 Nebula Crusader 2.5% $24.43 Special Delivery 2.5% $23.45 Wingshot 2.5% $22.32 Etch Lord 18.0% $13.06 Just Smile 18.0% $9.49 | $55.82 +419.2% | $10.93 +1.7% | 28.0% | +74.0% | $10.75 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Shadow Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 5.0% $19.97 Wingshot 5.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 5.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 5.0% $9.05 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +407.0% | $5.04 +27.9% | 52.0% | +94.8% | $3.94 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Shadow Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 7.5% $19.97 Wingshot 7.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 7.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 7.5% $9.05 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +323.2% | $5.90 +25.0% | 30.0% | +90.0% | $4.72 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Shadow Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 10.0% $19.97 Wingshot 10.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 10.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 10.0% $9.05 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +248.0% | $6.76 +17.7% | 40.0% | +79.3% | $5.74 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Shadow Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 12.5% $19.97 Wingshot 12.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 12.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 12.5% $9.05 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +191.6% | $7.62 +11.2% | 50.0% | +68.9% | $6.85 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Shadow Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 15.0% $19.97 Wingshot 15.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 15.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 15.0% $9.05 Etch Lord 8.0% $4.45 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 | $19.97 +154.5% | $8.47 +8.0% | 60.0% | +60.9% | $7.85 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Shadow Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Big Iron  3.3% $59.58 Frontside Misty  3.3% $53.09 Black Lotus  30.0% $37.06 Flux  3.3% $24.56 Olympus  30.0% $15.72 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 | $59.58 +167.7% | $24.88 +11.8% | 40.0% | +57.9% | $22.26 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Shadow Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear ST | Kill Confirmed  20.0% $447.62 Golden Coil  20.0% $435.84 Inheritance  30.0% $228.37 Chrome Cannon  30.0% $101.04 | $447.62 +82.2% | $275.51 +12.1% | 40.0% | +58.8% | $245.73 | — |