The Chroma 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Man-o'-war
1x $1.16
Warm Blooded
5x $2.27
Earth Mandala
3x $2.30
Sky Mandala
1x $3.96
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
45.0% $26.82
Sleeping Potion
45.0% $24.63
Heat
2.5% $24.03
Pole Position
2.5% $16.79
Worm God
2.5% $8.47
Grand Prix
2.5% $2.27
Max Win
$26.82 (+0.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$24.44 (-8.4%)
Win %
45.0%
Volatility
+17.9%
Cost
$26.67
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $26.67
Ask Price EV $24.44 (-8.4%)
Bid Price EV $22.96 (-13.9%)
Ask Profit $-2.23 (-8.4%)
Bid Profit $-3.71 (-13.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.48 (+5.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.23
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.71
Risk
Win Probability 45.0%
Loss Probability 55.0%
Best Case $26.82 (+0.6%)
Worst Case $2.27 (-91.5%)
Volatility +17.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 7.5%
Avg Win +$0.15
Avg Loss -$4.17
Bottom 5% Outcome $8.47 (-68.2%)
Std Dev $4.76
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 8m
Oldest Output Price 22h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Man-o'-war
—
Minimal Wear
$1.16 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 22S //TOTAL COST $26.67 //ASK PRICE EV $24.44 //BID PRICE EV $22.96 //ASK PROFIT $-2.23 (-8.4%) //BID PROFIT $-3.71 (-13.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $26.82 //VOLATILITY +17.9% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
PAPER WIN
45.0%
$26.82
+$0.15
+0.6%
$25.96
-$0.71
-2.7%
$0.86
3.2%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$24.63
-$2.04
-7.6%
$22.28
-$4.39
-16.5%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$24.03
-$2.65
-9.9%
$23.37
-$3.30
-12.4%
$0.65
2.7%
—
LOSS
2.5%
$16.79
-$9.88
-37.0%
$16.59
-$10.08
-37.8%
$0.20
1.2%
—
NUKE
2.5%
$8.47
-$18.20
-68.2%
$7.98
-$18.69
-70.1%
$0.49
5.8%
—
NUKE
2.5%
$2.27
-$24.40
-91.5%
$2.00
-$24.67
-92.5%
$0.27
11.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-7|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-7"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.048825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.8185,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:27.397267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.048825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.031387500000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c97e27944006",
"realistic_value": 8.471,
"optimistic_value": 8.45,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Worm God",
"conservative_value": 7.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Worm God (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:27.526970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c97e27944006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.048825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2e874d00715",
"realistic_value": 16.79,
"optimistic_value": 16.72,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Pole Position",
"conservative_value": 16.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:31:21.888222Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2e874d00715.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-fadb57cf0d51",
"realistic_value": 24.025,
"optimistic_value": 23.99,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Heat",
"conservative_value": 23.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:29.526690Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fadb57cf0d51.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.256975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-162f16955942",
"realistic_value": 2.2675,
"optimistic_value": 2.25,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Grand Prix",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:36.926888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-162f16955942.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_219cc7c0fa91753fb4adef0b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.16,
"skin_id": "skin-fd5699e808a0",
"listing_id": "497228024527611233",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Man-o'-war",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fd5699e808a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:43.538337Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "529879287550357884",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.763410Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:54.692202Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:54.692202Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.763410Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:54.692202Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.763410Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.763410Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "501731789729270537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:55.856393Z"
},
{
"price": 4.02,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526500790836642953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.763410Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-7:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 2 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Worm God 5.0% $3.43 Grand Prix 5.0% $2.27 Pole Position 5.0% $2.22 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.15 Heat 5.0% $1.85 | $9.85 +139.1% | $5.29 +28.3% | 40.0% | +90.7% | $4.12 | — |
The Chroma 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Worm God 7.5% $3.43 Grand Prix 7.5% $2.27 Pole Position 7.5% $2.22 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.15 Heat 7.5% $1.85 | $9.85 +150.0% | $4.93 +25.2% | 35.0% | +92.0% | $3.94 | — |
The Chroma 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Worm God 10.0% $4.27 Pole Position 10.0% $3.12 Grand Prix 10.0% $2.27 Heat 10.0% $2.19 | $13.94 +88.9% | $8.91 +20.8% | 60.0% | +67.2% | $7.38 | — |
The Chroma 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.78 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Worm God 12.5% $4.27 Pole Position 12.5% $3.20 Grand Prix 12.5% $2.27 Heat 12.5% $2.08 | $13.78 +100.5% | $7.88 +14.6% | 50.0% | +72.9% | $6.87 | — |
The Chroma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.90 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Worm God 15.0% $4.27 Pole Position 15.0% $3.12 Grand Prix 15.0% $2.27 Heat 15.0% $2.19 | $13.90 +125.2% | $6.92 +12.2% | 40.0% | +80.0% | $6.17 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 2 Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Eco  30.0% $224.09 Djinn  30.0% $166.29 Party Animal  10.0% $158.85 Monkey Business  30.0% $116.77 | $224.09 +35.0% | $168.03 +1.2% | 60.0% | +25.1% | $165.96 | — |