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The Chroma 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Battle-Scarred -15.4%Factory New -8.4%Well-Worn -25.3%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Valence
P250 | Valence
1x $0.39
Fraise Crane
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
1x $0.35
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
6x $0.36
Sky Mandala
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
2x $0.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
45.0% $7.31
Worm God
AWP | Worm God
2.5% $3.43
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
45.0% $2.36
Grand Prix
UMP-45 | Grand Prix
2.5% $2.27
Pole Position
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position
2.5% $2.14
Heat
MAG-7 | Heat
2.5% $1.86
Max Win
$7.31 (+18.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.60 (-25.3%)
Win %
45.0%
Volatility
+40.1%
Cost
$6.15
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.15
Ask Price EV $4.60 (-25.3%)
Bid Price EV $4.41 (-28.3%)
Ask Profit $-1.55 (-25.3%)
Bid Profit $-1.74 (-28.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.19 (+3.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.55
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.74
Risk
Win Probability 45.0%
Loss Probability 55.0%
Best Case $7.31 (+18.9%)
Worst Case $1.86 (-69.8%)
Volatility +40.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 55.0%
Avg Win +$1.16
Avg Loss -$3.78
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.14 (-65.3%)
Std Dev $2.47
Avg Norm Float 0.4405
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 8m
Oldest Output Price 142h 24m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Valence
—
Field-Tested
P250 | Valence (Field-Tested)
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)
$1.08 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 38S //TOTAL COST $6.15 //ASK PRICE EV $4.60 //BID PRICE EV $4.41 //ASK PROFIT $-1.55 (-25.3%) //BID PROFIT $-1.74 (-28.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $7.31 //VOLATILITY +40.1% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-7|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 1,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-7"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 9,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.30838499999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 7.3135,
      "optimistic_value": 7.24,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 7.05,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:07:21.447988Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.30838499999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.3615,
      "optimistic_value": 2.26,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:38.646800Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.025,
      "output_float": 0.1982475,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-c97e27944006",
      "realistic_value": 3.4315,
      "optimistic_value": 3.4,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Worm God",
      "conservative_value": 3.31,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:34:34.409839Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c97e27944006.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.025,
      "output_float": 0.30838499999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-e2e874d00715",
      "realistic_value": 2.137,
      "optimistic_value": 2.13,
      "output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Pole Position",
      "conservative_value": 2,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:26.071493Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2e874d00715.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.025,
      "output_float": 0.44055,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-fadb57cf0d51",
      "realistic_value": 1.857,
      "optimistic_value": 1.85,
      "output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Heat",
      "conservative_value": 1.7,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:14.799315Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fadb57cf0d51.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.025,
      "output_float": 0.294055,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-162f16955942",
      "realistic_value": 2.2675,
      "optimistic_value": 2.25,
      "output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Grand Prix",
      "conservative_value": 2,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:36.926888Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-162f16955942.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_219cc7c0fa91753fb4adef0b",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-4b8851edb204",
      "listing_id": "502856892580651228",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Valence (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P250 | Valence",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4b8851edb204.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:21.318788Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "525375688036657555",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:02.754180Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "510738989040015694",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:50.152289Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "508487189339587610",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.052753Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.46,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "499479989896979941",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:05.155137Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472790737290515",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:05.155137Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "494976390476927238",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:04.773812Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.05,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "494975741590866474",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:05.155137Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.07,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "496102290328584671",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:53.671597Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.08,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "508487136895989362",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:53.671597Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-7:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Chroma 2 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
40.0% $9.85
Worm God
AWP | Worm God
5.0% $3.43
Grand Prix
UMP-45 | Grand Prix
5.0% $2.27
Pole Position
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position
5.0% $2.22
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.15
Heat
MAG-7 | Heat
5.0% $1.85
$9.85
+139.1%
$5.29
+28.3%
40.0%+90.7%$4.12—
The Chroma 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
35.0% $9.85
Worm God
AWP | Worm God
7.5% $3.43
Grand Prix
UMP-45 | Grand Prix
7.5% $2.27
Pole Position
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position
7.5% $2.22
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
35.0% $2.15
Heat
MAG-7 | Heat
7.5% $1.85
$9.85
+150.0%
$4.93
+25.2%
35.0%+92.0%$3.94—
The Chroma 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
30.0% $13.94
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
30.0% $11.82
Worm God
AWP | Worm God
10.0% $4.27
Pole Position
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position
10.0% $3.12
Grand Prix
UMP-45 | Grand Prix
10.0% $2.27
Heat
MAG-7 | Heat
10.0% $2.19
$13.94
+88.9%
$8.91
+20.8%
60.0%+67.2%$7.38—
The Chroma 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
25.0% $13.78
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
25.0% $11.82
Worm God
AWP | Worm God
12.5% $4.27
Pole Position
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position
12.5% $3.20
Grand Prix
UMP-45 | Grand Prix
12.5% $2.27
Heat
MAG-7 | Heat
12.5% $2.08
$13.78
+100.5%
$7.88
+14.6%
50.0%+72.9%$6.87—
The Chroma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
20.0% $13.90
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
20.0% $11.82
Worm God
AWP | Worm God
15.0% $4.27
Pole Position
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position
15.0% $3.12
Grand Prix
UMP-45 | Grand Prix
15.0% $2.27
Heat
MAG-7 | Heat
15.0% $2.19
$13.90
+125.2%
$6.92
+12.2%
40.0%+80.0%$6.17—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Chroma 2 Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Eco
Galil AR | Eco
30.0% $224.09
Djinn
FAMAS | Djinn
30.0% $166.29
Party Animal
M4A1-S | Party Animal
10.0% $158.85
Monkey Business
Five-SeveN | Monkey Business
30.0% $116.77
$224.09
+35.0%
$168.03
+1.2%
60.0%+25.1%$165.96—
FS

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