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The Chroma 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Battle-Scarred +31.2%Factory New -13.2%Well-Worn -4.5%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Valence
P250 | Valence
1x $0.32
Sky Mandala
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
2x $0.34
Fraise Crane
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
2x $0.35
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
5x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
45.0% $9.85
Worm God
AWP | Worm God
2.5% $3.43
Grand Prix
UMP-45 | Grand Prix
2.5% $2.27
Pole Position
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position
2.5% $2.22
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
45.0% $2.15
Heat
MAG-7 | Heat
2.5% $1.85
Max Win
$9.85 (+129.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.64 (+31.2%)
Win %
45.0%
Volatility
+88.7%
Cost
$4.30
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $4.30
Ask Price EV $5.64 (+31.2%)
Bid Price EV $4.09 (-4.8%)
Ask Profit $1.34 (+31.2%)
Bid Profit $-0.21 (-4.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.55 (+36.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.34
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.21
Risk
Win Probability 45.0%
Loss Probability 55.0%
Best Case $9.85 (+129.1%)
Worst Case $1.85 (-57.0%)
Volatility +88.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 52.5%
Avg Win +$5.55
Avg Loss -$2.10
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.15 (-50.1%)
Std Dev $3.81
Avg Norm Float 0.5713
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 143h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Valence
—
Battle-Scarred
P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 07M 35S //TOTAL COST $4.30 //ASK PRICE EV $5.64 //BID PRICE EV $4.09 //ASK PROFIT $1.34 (+31.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.21 (-4.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +88.7% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-7|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 1,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-7"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 9,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.39988199999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 9.8505,
      "optimistic_value": 9.77,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 6.64,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.39988199999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.1455,
      "optimistic_value": 2.1,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 1.99,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:40.539403Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.025,
      "output_float": 0.257067,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-c97e27944006",
      "realistic_value": 3.4315,
      "optimistic_value": 3.4,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Worm God",
      "conservative_value": 3.31,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:34:34.409839Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c97e27944006.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.025,
      "output_float": 0.39988199999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-e2e874d00715",
      "realistic_value": 2.218,
      "optimistic_value": 2.19,
      "output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Pole Position",
      "conservative_value": 1.49,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:52:50.667333Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2e874d00715.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.025,
      "output_float": 0.57126,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-fadb57cf0d51",
      "realistic_value": 1.85,
      "optimistic_value": 1.85,
      "output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Heat",
      "conservative_value": 1.63,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Heat (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:43.731662Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fadb57cf0d51.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.025,
      "output_float": 0.307126,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-162f16955942",
      "realistic_value": 2.2675,
      "optimistic_value": 2.25,
      "output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Grand Prix",
      "conservative_value": 2,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:18.202232Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-162f16955942.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_219cc7c0fa91753fb4adef0b",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-4b8851edb204",
      "listing_id": "503983589619610327",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P250 | Valence",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4b8851edb204.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:30.931663Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "503983589619270235",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:52.782325Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "492724590626378025",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:25.668054Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "501731789729082221",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:25.668054Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "508487189339587610",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:52.782325Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "518620288314051868",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472790737290515",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605889841164747",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "503983589619183691",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.54,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "497228137697395481",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-7:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Chroma 2 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
40.0% $9.85
Worm God
AWP | Worm God
5.0% $3.43
Pole Position
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position
5.0% $2.22
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.15
Grand Prix
UMP-45 | Grand Prix
5.0% $1.99
Heat
MAG-7 | Heat
5.0% $1.85
$9.85
+142.6%
$5.27
+29.9%
40.0%+92.3%$4.06—
The Chroma 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
35.0% $9.85
Worm God
AWP | Worm God
7.5% $3.43
Pole Position
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position
7.5% $2.22
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
35.0% $2.14
Grand Prix
UMP-45 | Grand Prix
7.5% $1.99
Heat
MAG-7 | Heat
7.5% $1.64
$9.85
+151.9%
$4.89
+25.1%
35.0%+93.5%$3.91—
The Chroma 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
30.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
30.0% $11.82
Worm God
AWP | Worm God
10.0% $4.27
Pole Position
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position
10.0% $3.20
Grand Prix
UMP-45 | Grand Prix
10.0% $2.27
Heat
MAG-7 | Heat
10.0% $2.13
$13.75
+87.1%
$8.86
+20.5%
60.0%+66.7%$7.35—
The Chroma 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
25.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
25.0% $11.82
Worm God
AWP | Worm God
12.5% $4.27
Pole Position
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position
12.5% $3.20
Heat
MAG-7 | Heat
12.5% $2.13
Grand Prix
UMP-45 | Grand Prix
12.5% $1.99
$13.75
+101.9%
$7.84
+15.1%
50.0%+73.9%$6.81—
The Chroma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
20.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
20.0% $11.82
Worm God
AWP | Worm God
15.0% $4.27
Pole Position
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position
15.0% $3.20
Grand Prix
UMP-45 | Grand Prix
15.0% $2.27
Heat
MAG-7 | Heat
15.0% $2.13
$13.75
+125.4%
$6.89
+13.0%
40.0%+80.2%$6.10—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Chroma 2 Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Eco
Galil AR | Eco
30.0% $224.09
Djinn
FAMAS | Djinn
30.0% $166.29
Party Animal
M4A1-S | Party Animal
10.0% $158.85
Monkey Business
Five-SeveN | Monkey Business
30.0% $116.77
$224.09
+35.0%
$168.03
+1.2%
60.0%+25.1%$165.96—
FS

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