The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Necro Jr.
1x $0.30
Foresight
1x $0.31
Lifted Spirits
1x $0.34
Warm Blooded
2x $1.26
Sky Mandala
2x $1.58
Earth Mandala
3x $2.30
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $26.82
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $24.63
Night Terror
6.0% $3.99
Space Cat
6.0% $3.22
Zombie Offensive
6.0% $2.68
Ticket to Hell
6.0% $1.65
Max Win
$26.82 (+74.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.80 (+22.5%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+69.3%
Cost
$15.35
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.35
Ask Price EV $18.80 (+22.5%)
Bid Price EV $17.67 (+15.1%)
Ask Profit $3.45 (+22.5%)
Bid Profit $2.32 (+15.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.13 (+7.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.45
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.32
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $26.82 (+74.7%)
Worst Case $1.64 (-89.3%)
Volatility +69.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$10.37
Avg Loss -$12.71
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.64 (-89.3%)
Std Dev $10.63
Avg Norm Float 0.0998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 23h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.58 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$2.07 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 19S //TOTAL COST $15.35 //ASK PRICE EV $18.80 //BID PRICE EV $17.67 //ASK PROFIT $3.45 (+22.5%) //BID PROFIT $2.32 (+15.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $26.82 //VOLATILITY +69.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$26.82
+$11.47
+74.7%
$25.99
+$10.64
+69.3%
$0.83
3.1%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$24.63
+$9.28
+60.5%
$22.28
+$6.93
+45.1%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$3.99
-$11.36
-74.0%
$3.97
-$11.38
-74.1%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.22
-$12.13
-79.0%
$3.19
-$12.16
-79.2%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.68
-$12.67
-82.5%
$2.67
-$12.68
-82.6%
$0.01
0.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.65
-$13.70
-89.2%
$1.44
-$13.91
-90.6%
$0.21
12.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.64
-$13.71
-89.3%
$1.62
-$13.73
-89.4%
$0.02
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.069867,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.8185,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:19:51.910596Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.069867,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.6369999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.63,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:23:06.525413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.069867,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 3.9935,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:56.893915Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06687270000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:35:10.101140Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0758556,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 1.6504999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.64,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:50:22.722945Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.049905,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:43:26.312909Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_20f1da4b2083eb8b9b7a5968",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "519746188257835928",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:43:22.820895Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "643593744688088905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:28.359305Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "491598690699562262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:37:13.906541Z"
},
{
"price": 1.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738823413937978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:35.163110Z"
},
{
"price": 1.58,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "511864888985376297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:37.820404Z"
},
{
"price": 2.07,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "516367691480150330",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:37.820404Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.220874Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.220874Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:33.763709Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.220874Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Night Terror 6.0% $1.45 Space Cat 6.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.03 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.94 | $13.94 +98.1% | $9.35 +32.9% | 70.0% | +71.8% | $7.04 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $7.65 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.46 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.94 Space Cat 6.0% $0.91 | $7.65 +125.0% | $3.82 +12.3% | 35.0% | +81.9% | $3.40 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 35.0% $7.65 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.46 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.94 Space Cat 6.0% $0.91 | $7.65 +116.7% | $3.82 +8.1% | 35.0% | +78.9% | $3.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Night Terror 10.0% $1.46 Space Cat 10.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.07 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $0.94 | $13.56 +164.4% | $6.91 +34.7% | 50.0% | +107.2% | $5.13 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Night Terror 8.0% $1.46 Space Cat 8.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.07 Dream Glade 8.0% $0.90 | $13.56 +120.5% | $8.06 +31.1% | 60.0% | +86.8% | $6.15 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Party Animal  30.0% $37.12 Melondrama  23.3% $9.18 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $9.10 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $8.91 | $37.12 +137.8% | $17.48 +12.0% | 30.0% | +82.4% | $15.61 | — |