The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Poultrygeist
2x $0.12
Foresight
1x $0.14
Fraise Crane
1x $0.35
Warm Blooded
3x $0.36
Sky Mandala
2x $0.40
Earth Mandala
1x $0.46
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $7.65
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $2.46
Night Terror
6.0% $1.00
Zombie Offensive
6.0% $0.96
Ticket to Hell
6.0% $0.94
Space Cat
6.0% $0.91
Max Win
$7.65 (+125.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.82 (+12.3%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+84.6%
Cost
$3.40
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.40
Ask Price EV $3.82 (+12.3%)
Bid Price EV $3.34 (-1.8%)
Ask Profit $0.42 (+12.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.06 (-1.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.48 (+14.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.42
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.06
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $7.65 (+125.0%)
Worst Case $0.85 (-74.9%)
Volatility +84.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%
Avg Win +$4.25
Avg Loss -$1.65
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.85 (-74.9%)
Std Dev $2.88
Avg Norm Float 0.4889
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 144h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 19S //TOTAL COST $3.40 //ASK PRICE EV $3.82 //BID PRICE EV $3.34 //ASK PROFIT $0.42 (+12.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.06 (-1.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $7.65 //VOLATILITY +84.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$7.65
+$4.25
+125.0%
$6.58
+$3.18
+93.5%
$1.07
14.0%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$2.46
-$0.94
-27.7%
$2.25
-$1.15
-33.8%
$0.21
8.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.00
-$2.40
-70.7%
$0.87
-$2.53
-74.4%
$0.13
12.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.96
-$2.44
-71.7%
$0.81
-$2.59
-76.2%
$0.15
15.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.94
-$2.46
-72.2%
$0.86
-$2.54
-74.7%
$0.08
8.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.91
-$2.49
-73.2%
$0.82
-$2.58
-75.9%
$0.09
10.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.85
-$2.55
-74.9%
$0.77
-$2.63
-77.4%
$0.08
9.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.342237,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.65,
"optimistic_value": 7.51,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:50:18.133470Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.342237,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.459,
"optimistic_value": 2.41,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:36.302840Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.48891,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.8534999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.85,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:55:21.468799Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.342237,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 0.997,
"optimistic_value": 0.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:35.810766Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.3275697,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 0.911,
"optimistic_value": 0.89,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:48:02.354400Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.3715716,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 0.9440000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.93,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 0.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:43:43.020351Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.244455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 0.9604999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:26:44.444767Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_20f1da4b2083eb8b9b7a5968",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-2c6b935bb4eb",
"listing_id": "520872088107083676",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c6b935bb4eb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:23.744729Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-2c6b935bb4eb",
"listing_id": "508487136897126818",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c6b935bb4eb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:23.744729Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "491598690699311594",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:38:07.228691Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "525375688036657555",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.676723Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "521997988014963726",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:31.782552Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:30.625958Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "659356415309640970",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:48.731411Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "499479989896979941",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:43.018740Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "502857689862732112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:46.048994Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737290515",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:43.018740Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Night Terror 6.0% $1.45 Space Cat 6.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.03 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.94 | $13.94 +98.1% | $9.35 +32.9% | 70.0% | +71.8% | $7.04 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Night Terror 6.0% $3.99 Space Cat 6.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $2.68 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.65 | $26.82 +74.7% | $18.80 +22.5% | 70.0% | +63.6% | $15.35 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 35.0% $7.65 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.46 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.94 Space Cat 6.0% $0.91 | $7.65 +116.7% | $3.82 +8.1% | 35.0% | +78.9% | $3.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Night Terror 10.0% $1.46 Space Cat 10.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.07 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $0.94 | $13.56 +164.4% | $6.91 +34.7% | 50.0% | +107.2% | $5.13 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Night Terror 8.0% $1.46 Space Cat 8.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.07 Dream Glade 8.0% $0.90 | $13.56 +120.5% | $8.06 +31.1% | 60.0% | +86.8% | $6.15 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Party Animal  30.0% $37.12 Melondrama  23.3% $9.18 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $9.10 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $8.91 | $37.12 +137.8% | $17.48 +12.0% | 30.0% | +82.4% | $15.61 | — |