The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Ensnared
1x $0.15
Necro Jr.
1x $0.30
Foresight
1x $0.31
Earth Mandala
2x $0.48
Warm Blooded
5x $1.04
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $13.90
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $11.82
Night Terror
6.0% $1.58
Space Cat
6.0% $1.24
Zombie Offensive
6.0% $1.05
Ticket to Hell
6.0% $0.90
Max Win
$13.90 (+93.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.34 (+30.3%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+75.9%
Cost
$7.17
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.17
Ask Price EV $9.34 (+30.3%)
Bid Price EV $7.95 (+10.9%)
Ask Profit $2.17 (+30.3%)
Bid Profit $0.78 (+10.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.39 (+19.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.17
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.78
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $13.90 (+93.8%)
Worst Case $0.90 (-87.4%)
Volatility +75.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$5.69
Avg Loss -$6.03
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.90 (-87.4%)
Std Dev $5.44
Avg Norm Float 0.2139
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 9m
Oldest Output Price 53h 8m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.04 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.08 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 25S //TOTAL COST $7.17 //ASK PRICE EV $9.34 //BID PRICE EV $7.95 //ASK PROFIT $2.17 (+30.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.78 (+10.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $13.90 //VOLATILITY +75.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$13.90
+$6.73
+93.8%
$12.11
+$4.94
+68.9%
$1.79
12.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$11.82
+$4.65
+64.9%
$9.69
+$2.52
+35.1%
$2.13
18.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$1.58
-$5.59
-78.0%
$1.43
-$5.74
-80.1%
$0.15
9.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.24
-$5.93
-82.6%
$1.16
-$6.01
-83.8%
$0.08
6.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.05
-$6.12
-85.3%
$0.99
-$6.18
-86.2%
$0.06
6.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.90
-$6.27
-87.4%
$0.86
-$6.31
-88.0%
$0.04
4.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.90
-$6.27
-87.4%
$0.87
-$6.30
-87.9%
$0.03
3.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.149723,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.895999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.84,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:42.985176Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.149723,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.21389,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.9005000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.89,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:22:09.281963Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.149723,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 1.58,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 1.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:58:34.524448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.1433063,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.244,
"optimistic_value": 1.23,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:17.572956Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.1625564,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 0.904,
"optimistic_value": 0.89,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 0.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:43.240525Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.106945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.054,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:35.248218Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_20f1da4b2083eb8b9b7a5968",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "490472738292937491",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:44.736388Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "519746188257835928",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:05.074533Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "643593744688088905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:58.861673Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985363085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:06.797621Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "517494336189226390",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:06.797621Z"
},
{
"price": 1.04,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "496102290329392043",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:53.671597Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "520872088106733504",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:53.671597Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "496102290328584671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:53.671597Z"
},
{
"price": 1.08,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "508487136895989362",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:53.671597Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472738290593603",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:53.671597Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Night Terror 6.0% $3.99 Space Cat 6.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $2.68 Dream Glade 6.0% $1.63 | $26.79 +68.7% | $18.78 +18.3% | 70.0% | +61.5% | $15.88 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $7.31 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.36 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.01 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $0.96 Space Cat 6.0% $0.90 | $7.31 +121.0% | $3.67 +10.9% | 35.0% | +79.9% | $3.31 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 35.0% $7.31 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.36 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.90 Space Cat 6.0% $0.90 | $7.31 +107.2% | $3.66 +3.7% | 35.0% | +75.2% | $3.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.15 Night Terror 4.0% $1.31 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $1.01 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $0.96 Space Cat 4.0% $0.93 | $9.85 +165.5% | $5.00 +34.8% | 40.0% | +105.0% | $3.71 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Party Animal  30.0% $37.12 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $9.10 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $9.06 Melondrama  23.3% $8.83 | $37.12 +143.1% | $17.43 +14.2% | 30.0% | +84.4% | $15.27 | — |