The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Lifted Spirits
2x $0.34
Necro Jr.
1x $2.49
Sky Mandala
1x $1.58
Earth Mandala
3x $2.30
Warm Blooded
3x $2.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $26.82
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $24.63
Dream Glade
6.0% $8.63
Ticket to Hell
6.0% $4.91
Night Terror
6.0% $3.99
Space Cat
6.0% $3.22
Max Win
$26.82 (+21.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.41 (-11.9%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+44.3%
Cost
$22.03
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $22.03
Ask Price EV $19.41 (-11.9%)
Bid Price EV $18.29 (-17.0%)
Ask Profit $-2.62 (-11.9%)
Bid Profit $-3.74 (-17.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.12 (+5.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.62
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.74
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $26.82 (+21.7%)
Worst Case $2.68 (-87.8%)
Volatility +44.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$3.69
Avg Loss -$17.34
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.68 (-87.8%)
Std Dev $9.75
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 23h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$2.49 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.58 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 28S //TOTAL COST $22.03 //ASK PRICE EV $19.41 //BID PRICE EV $18.29 //ASK PROFIT $-2.62 (-11.9%) //BID PROFIT $-3.74 (-17.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $26.82 //VOLATILITY +44.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
35.0%
$26.82
+$4.79
+21.7%
$25.99
+$3.96
+18.0%
$0.83
3.1%
—
SMALL WIN
35.0%
$24.63
+$2.60
+11.8%
$22.28
+$0.25
+1.1%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$8.63
-$13.40
-60.8%
$8.53
-$13.50
-61.3%
$0.10
1.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.91
-$17.12
-77.7%
$4.89
-$17.14
-77.8%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.99
-$18.04
-81.9%
$3.97
-$18.06
-82.0%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.22
-$18.81
-85.4%
$3.19
-$18.84
-85.5%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.68
-$19.35
-87.8%
$2.67
-$19.36
-87.9%
$0.01
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.04893,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.8185,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:19:51.910596Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.04893,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 8.628,
"optimistic_value": 8.6,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 8.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:30:04.232593Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.04893,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 3.9935,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:56.893915Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.04683300000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:35:10.101140Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.053124000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 4.9135,
"optimistic_value": 4.91,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:34:56.458190Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.03495,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:43:26.312909Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_20f1da4b2083eb8b9b7a5968",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "491598690699562262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:37:13.906541Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "523123091070407086",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:31.439228Z"
},
{
"price": 2.49,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "497228137695537017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:30.399747Z"
},
{
"price": 1.58,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "511864888985376297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:37.820404Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.220874Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.220874Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:33.763709Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.220874Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:33.763709Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:33.763709Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Night Terror 6.0% $1.45 Space Cat 6.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.03 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.94 | $13.94 +98.1% | $9.35 +32.9% | 70.0% | +71.8% | $7.04 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Night Terror 6.0% $3.99 Space Cat 6.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $2.68 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.65 | $26.82 +74.7% | $18.80 +22.5% | 70.0% | +63.6% | $15.35 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $7.65 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.46 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.94 Space Cat 6.0% $0.91 | $7.65 +125.0% | $3.82 +12.3% | 35.0% | +81.9% | $3.40 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 35.0% $7.65 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.46 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.94 Space Cat 6.0% $0.91 | $7.65 +116.7% | $3.82 +8.1% | 35.0% | +78.9% | $3.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Night Terror 10.0% $1.46 Space Cat 10.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.07 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $0.94 | $13.56 +164.4% | $6.91 +34.7% | 50.0% | +107.2% | $5.13 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Night Terror 8.0% $1.46 Space Cat 8.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.07 Dream Glade 8.0% $0.90 | $13.56 +120.5% | $8.06 +31.1% | 60.0% | +86.8% | $6.15 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Party Animal  30.0% $37.12 Melondrama  23.3% $9.18 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $9.10 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $8.91 | $37.12 +137.8% | $17.48 +12.0% | 30.0% | +82.4% | $15.61 | — |