The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Ultralight
3x $0.27
Gnarled
2x $0.35
Bock Blocks
4x $0.47
Fusion
1x $0.59
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
10.0% $16.94
Firebreathing
10.0% $10.78
Amberline
10.0% $6.48
Galigator
10.0% $5.68
Urban Sovereign
10.0% $4.73
Monster Call
10.0% $2.47
Max Win
$16.94 (+265.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.59 (+20.4%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+99.5%
Cost
$4.64
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.64
Ask Price EV $5.59 (+20.4%)
Bid Price EV $4.72 (+1.7%)
Ask Profit $0.95 (+20.4%)
Bid Profit $0.08 (+1.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.87 (+18.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.95
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.08
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $16.94 (+265.0%)
Worst Case $1.91 (-58.9%)
Volatility +99.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$4.28
Avg Loss -$2.39
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.91 (-58.9%)
Std Dev $4.62
Avg Norm Float 0.1480
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 64h 46m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 22M 20S //TOTAL COST $4.64 //ASK PRICE EV $5.59 //BID PRICE EV $4.72 //ASK PROFIT $0.95 (+20.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.08 (+1.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $16.94 //VOLATILITY +99.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$16.94
+$12.30
+265.0%
$14.31
+$9.67
+208.4%
$2.63
15.5%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$10.78
+$6.14
+132.3%
$9.15
+$4.51
+97.2%
$1.63
15.1%
—
WIN
10.0%
$6.48
+$1.84
+39.7%
$4.92
+$0.28
+6.0%
$1.56
24.1%
—
WIN
10.0%
$5.68
+$1.04
+22.4%
$4.89
+$0.25
+5.4%
$0.79
13.9%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$4.73
+$0.09
+2.0%
$4.43
-$0.21
-4.5%
$0.30
6.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.47
-$2.17
-46.7%
$2.11
-$2.53
-54.5%
$0.36
14.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.37
-$2.27
-49.0%
$1.97
-$2.67
-57.5%
$0.40
16.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.28
-$2.36
-50.9%
$1.84
-$2.80
-60.3%
$0.44
19.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.23
-$2.41
-51.9%
$1.95
-$2.69
-58.0%
$0.28
12.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.91
-$2.73
-58.9%
$1.62
-$3.02
-65.1%
$0.29
15.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 10.7765,
"optimistic_value": 10.71,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.430728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11843999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 2.2305,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:58:17.794467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 5.68,
"optimistic_value": 5.68,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:56.622316Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 16.936,
"optimistic_value": 16.88,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 14.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.044782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 1.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:11:49.798269Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 2.4739999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.46,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 2.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:10:03.152892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11843999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 1.909,
"optimistic_value": 1.86,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:09.947065Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 6.484,
"optimistic_value": 6.4,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:14.354664Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 4.7305,
"optimistic_value": 4.72,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 2.367,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 1.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:45.171246Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1d5a607138e6ad29348cd216",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "498354089952589531",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:29.839392Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "516368436280361834",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:29.839392Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "502857689862208600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:29.839392Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "496102290328331375",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:37.048683Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "524249787960597759",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:37.048683Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "508487189339291906",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:30.629620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "509613036859925607",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:30.629620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "511864723318980237",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:23.018777Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "643593816523454425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:30.629620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "520872088106561496",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:37.216751Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:5+collection-set-community-37:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.79 Brother 10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +297.8% | $17.02 +32.1% | 50.0% | +92.9% | $12.89 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 10.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 10.0% $6.12 Galigator 10.0% $3.26 Amberline 10.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $3.19 Monster Call 10.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +316.1% | $3.16 +22.9% | 50.0% | +102.8% | $2.57 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 16.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 16.0% $6.12 Galigator 16.0% $3.26 Amberline 16.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $3.19 Monster Call 4.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +217.3% | $4.44 +31.8% | 32.0% | +83.2% | $3.37 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 8.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 8.0% $31.66 Amberline 8.0% $18.87 Galigator 8.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $13.79 Brother 12.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +342.0% | $15.23 +31.3% | 52.0% | +97.6% | $11.60 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 14.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 14.0% $6.12 Galigator 14.0% $3.26 Amberline 14.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $3.19 Monster Call 6.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +247.2% | $4.01 +30.3% | 70.0% | +89.7% | $3.08 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.79 Brother 8.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +254.6% | $18.82 +30.2% | 48.0% | +86.2% | $14.46 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 6.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 6.0% $31.66 Amberline 6.0% $18.87 Galigator 6.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $13.79 Brother 14.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +393.0% | $13.43 +29.1% | 44.0% | +100.0% | $10.40 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.79 Brother 2.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +162.3% | $24.22 +23.9% | 36.0% | +69.9% | $19.55 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 4.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 4.0% $31.66 Amberline 4.0% $18.87 Galigator 4.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $13.79 Brother 16.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +439.7% | $11.63 +22.4% | 36.0% | +95.1% | $9.50 | — |