The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Ultralight
2x $0.14
Gnarled
2x $0.17
Freight
1x $0.18
Fragment
3x $0.30
RMX
2x $0.38
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
10.0% $10.69
Firebreathing
10.0% $6.12
Galigator
10.0% $3.26
Amberline
10.0% $3.22
Urban Sovereign
10.0% $3.19
Monster Call
10.0% $1.11
Max Win
$10.69 (+316.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.16 (+22.9%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+115.7%
Cost
$2.57
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.57
Ask Price EV $3.16 (+22.9%)
Bid Price EV $2.67 (+3.8%)
Ask Profit $0.59 (+22.9%)
Bid Profit $0.10 (+3.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.49 (+19.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.59
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.10
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $10.69 (+316.1%)
Worst Case $0.98 (-61.9%)
Volatility +115.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$2.73
Avg Loss -$1.55
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.98 (-61.9%)
Std Dev $2.97
Avg Norm Float 0.3693
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 128h 30m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 22M 11S //TOTAL COST $2.57 //ASK PRICE EV $3.16 //BID PRICE EV $2.67 //ASK PROFIT $0.59 (+22.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.10 (+3.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $10.69 //VOLATILITY +115.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$10.69
+$8.12
+316.1%
$9.15
+$6.58
+256.0%
$1.54
14.4%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$6.12
+$3.55
+138.0%
$4.98
+$2.41
+93.8%
$1.14
18.6%
—
WIN
10.0%
$3.26
+$0.69
+27.0%
$2.91
+$0.34
+13.2%
$0.35
10.8%
—
WIN
10.0%
$3.22
+$0.65
+25.4%
$2.61
+$0.04
+1.6%
$0.61
19.0%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$3.19
+$0.62
+24.1%
$2.57
-$0.00
-0.0%
$0.62
19.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.11
-$1.46
-56.9%
$0.95
-$1.62
-63.0%
$0.16
14.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.02
-$1.55
-60.3%
$0.89
-$1.68
-65.4%
$0.13
12.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.00
-$1.57
-60.9%
$0.82
-$1.75
-68.1%
$0.18
18.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.98
-$1.59
-61.7%
$0.93
-$1.64
-63.8%
$0.05
5.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.98
-$1.59
-61.9%
$0.87
-$1.70
-66.1%
$0.11
11.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.36932,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 6.117,
"optimistic_value": 6.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 4.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.545500Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.295456,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.98,
"optimistic_value": 0.98,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.362622Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.36932,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.2635,
"optimistic_value": 3.19,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 2.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:45.477369Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.36932,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 10.693000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:48.376233Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.36932,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.9834999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.98,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:14.701628Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.36932,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 1.107,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T18:26:14.119971Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.295456,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 1.004,
"optimistic_value": 0.99,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:33.870907Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.36932,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.222,
"optimistic_value": 3.18,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 2.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:26:21.908552Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.36932,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.19,
"optimistic_value": 3.19,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 2.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.565913Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.36932,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 1.0205,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T03:21:05.901970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1d5a607138e6ad29348cd216",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "500605889841376211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:48.921015Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "515242588554703645",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:48.921015Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "507361123691914033",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:56.349197Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "494976390476283018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:34.341903Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "508487189339347994",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:56.349197Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "502857689862472948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:04.956128Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "507361289452778197",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:04.956128Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "499479989896168933",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:04.956128Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "508487136897691262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:10.749346Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "506235389469140196",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:10.749346Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:5+collection-set-community-37:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.79 Brother 10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +297.8% | $17.02 +32.1% | 50.0% | +92.9% | $12.89 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 10.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 10.0% $10.78 Amberline 10.0% $6.48 Galigator 10.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $4.73 Monster Call 10.0% $2.47 | $16.94 +265.0% | $5.59 +20.4% | 50.0% | +88.1% | $4.64 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 16.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 16.0% $6.12 Galigator 16.0% $3.26 Amberline 16.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $3.19 Monster Call 4.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +217.3% | $4.44 +31.8% | 32.0% | +83.2% | $3.37 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 8.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 8.0% $31.66 Amberline 8.0% $18.87 Galigator 8.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $13.79 Brother 12.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +342.0% | $15.23 +31.3% | 52.0% | +97.6% | $11.60 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 14.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 14.0% $6.12 Galigator 14.0% $3.26 Amberline 14.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $3.19 Monster Call 6.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +247.2% | $4.01 +30.3% | 70.0% | +89.7% | $3.08 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.79 Brother 8.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +254.6% | $18.82 +30.2% | 48.0% | +86.2% | $14.46 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 6.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 6.0% $31.66 Amberline 6.0% $18.87 Galigator 6.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $13.79 Brother 14.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +393.0% | $13.43 +29.1% | 44.0% | +100.0% | $10.40 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.79 Brother 2.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +162.3% | $24.22 +23.9% | 36.0% | +69.9% | $19.55 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 4.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 4.0% $31.66 Amberline 4.0% $18.87 Galigator 4.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $13.79 Brother 16.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +439.7% | $11.63 +22.4% | 36.0% | +95.1% | $9.50 | — |