The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Ultralight
1x $0.30
Gnarled
2x $0.35
Freight
2x $1.55
Bock Blocks
3x $0.87
RMX
1x $1.75
Fusion
1x $2.54
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
10.0% $51.27
Firebreathing
10.0% $31.66
Amberline
10.0% $18.87
Galigator
10.0% $14.51
Urban Sovereign
10.0% $13.79
Brother
10.0% $11.85
Max Win
$51.27 (+292.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.01 (+30.1%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+103.9%
Cost
$13.07
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $13.07
Ask Price EV $17.01 (+30.1%)
Bid Price EV $14.20 (+8.6%)
Ask Profit $3.94 (+30.1%)
Bid Profit $1.13 (+8.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.81 (+21.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.94
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.13
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $51.27 (+292.3%)
Worst Case $5.03 (-61.5%)
Volatility +103.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$12.95
Avg Loss -$5.08
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.03 (-61.5%)
Std Dev $13.58
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 54h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Factory New
$2.54 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 21M 29S //TOTAL COST $13.07 //ASK PRICE EV $17.01 //BID PRICE EV $14.20 //ASK PROFIT $3.94 (+30.1%) //BID PROFIT $1.13 (+8.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $51.27 //VOLATILITY +103.9% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$51.27
+$38.20
+292.3%
$43.51
+$30.44
+232.9%
$7.76
15.1%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$31.66
+$18.59
+142.2%
$29.45
+$16.38
+125.3%
$2.21
7.0%
—
PAPER WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$18.87
+$5.80
+44.4%
$12.97
-$0.10
-0.8%
$5.90
31.3%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$14.51
+$1.44
+11.0%
$13.05
-$0.02
-0.2%
$1.46
10.1%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$13.79
+$0.71
+5.5%
$11.82
-$1.25
-9.6%
$1.96
14.3%
—
LOSS THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$11.85
-$1.22
-9.3%
$6.76
-$6.31
-48.3%
$5.09
43.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.07
-$4.00
-30.6%
$7.96
-$5.11
-39.1%
$1.11
12.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$7.80
-$5.27
-40.3%
$6.87
-$6.20
-47.4%
$0.93
12.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$6.21
-$6.86
-52.5%
$5.60
-$7.47
-57.2%
$0.61
9.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$5.03
-$8.04
-61.5%
$4.00
-$9.07
-69.4%
$1.03
20.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 31.657,
"optimistic_value": 31.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 29.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.490012Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.055776000000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 5.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:53:45.139926Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 14.512,
"optimistic_value": 14.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 13.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.833807Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 51.274,
"optimistic_value": 50.91,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 43.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.200704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 7.8045,
"optimistic_value": 7.5,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 6.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:24:36.328906Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 9.072,
"optimistic_value": 9.03,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 7.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:24:33.063836Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.055776000000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 5.031,
"optimistic_value": 4.87,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:35.204914Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 18.869,
"optimistic_value": 17.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 12.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:36:10.284461Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 13.785,
"optimistic_value": 13.68,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 11.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:18.591371Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 11.8515,
"optimistic_value": 11.33,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 6.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T19:03:13.729438Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1d5a607138e6ad29348cd216",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "502857689862208600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:31.144312Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "496102290328331375",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:34:12.338778Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "524249787960597759",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:34:12.338778Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "520871922572998776",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:42.053928Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "523123091056815646",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:42.053928Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "520872088106561496",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:18.325217Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "492724590626343393",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:18.325217Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "492724538182380753",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:21.788512Z"
},
{
"price": 2.54,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "497228137695843557",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:47:32.680149Z"
},
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "499479989895893281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:53:59.693231Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:5+collection-set-community-37:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 10.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 10.0% $6.12 Galigator 10.0% $3.26 Amberline 10.0% $3.21 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $3.19 Monster Call 10.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +316.1% | $3.15 +22.4% | 50.0% | +102.9% | $2.57 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 10.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 10.0% $10.78 Amberline 10.0% $6.48 Galigator 10.0% $5.66 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $4.80 Monster Call 10.0% $2.47 | $16.94 +265.0% | $5.60 +20.7% | 50.0% | +87.9% | $4.64 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 16.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 16.0% $6.12 Galigator 16.0% $3.26 Amberline 16.0% $3.21 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $3.19 Monster Call 4.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +212.7% | $4.44 +29.7% | 32.0% | +82.0% | $3.42 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 8.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 8.0% $31.66 Amberline 8.0% $18.87 Galigator 8.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $13.79 Brother 12.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +336.7% | $15.20 +29.5% | 52.0% | +96.5% | $11.74 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 6.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 6.0% $31.66 Amberline 6.0% $18.87 Galigator 6.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $13.79 Brother 14.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +393.0% | $13.40 +28.9% | 44.0% | +100.1% | $10.40 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 14.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 14.0% $6.12 Galigator 14.0% $3.26 Amberline 14.0% $3.21 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $3.18 Monster Call 6.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +243.8% | $4.01 +28.8% | 70.0% | +88.9% | $3.11 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.92 Brother 2.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +171.0% | $24.24 +28.1% | 36.0% | +72.1% | $18.92 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.79 Brother 8.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +247.9% | $18.81 +27.6% | 36.0% | +84.6% | $14.74 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 4.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 4.0% $31.66 Amberline 4.0% $18.87 Galigator 4.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $13.79 Brother 16.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +439.7% | $11.60 +22.1% | 36.0% | +95.2% | $9.50 | — |