The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Mainframe 001
2x $0.13
Ultralight
1x $0.14
Runic
2x $0.15
Reef Grief
1x $0.25
Yeti Camo
2x $0.29
Cobalt Paisley
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
25.0% $6.93
Royal Guard
25.0% $1.31
Connexion
10.0% $0.73
Brother
10.0% $0.69
Monster Call
10.0% $0.67
Kitbash
10.0% $0.64
Max Win
$6.93 (+191.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.40 (+0.7%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+110.6%
Cost
$2.38
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.38
Ask Price EV $2.40 (+0.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.01 (-15.4%)
Ask Profit $0.02 (+0.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.37 (-15.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.38 (+16.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.02
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.37
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $6.93 (+191.2%)
Worst Case $0.62 (-74.1%)
Volatility +110.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 75.0%
Avg Win +$4.55
Avg Loss -$1.50
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.62 (-74.1%)
Std Dev $2.63
Avg Norm Float 0.4040
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 141h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 36S //TOTAL COST $2.38 //ASK PRICE EV $2.40 //BID PRICE EV $2.01 //ASK PROFIT $0.02 (+0.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.37 (-15.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +110.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$6.93
+$4.55
+191.2%
$5.76
+$3.38
+142.0%
$1.17
16.9%
—
NUKE
25.0%
$1.31
-$1.07
-44.9%
$1.07
-$1.31
-55.0%
$0.24
18.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.73
-$1.65
-69.3%
$0.72
-$1.66
-69.7%
$0.01
1.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.69
-$1.69
-71.0%
$0.55
-$1.83
-76.9%
$0.14
20.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.67
-$1.71
-71.8%
$0.59
-$1.79
-75.2%
$0.08
12.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.64
-$1.74
-73.0%
$0.63
-$1.75
-73.5%
$0.01
2.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.62
-$1.76
-74.1%
$0.58
-$1.80
-75.6%
$0.04
6.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.30300000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.2424,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.311,
"optimistic_value": 1.29,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:29.832681Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.32320000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.73,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:56.963889Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.404,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.617,
"optimistic_value": 0.61,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:55:16.952252Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.404,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:49:03.275213Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.32320000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.6435,
"optimistic_value": 0.64,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:28.066373Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.404,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:36:25.969052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1cab0d4dc6a44993e0d3e4de",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "492724590625972629",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:56.448156Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "490472738292959487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:56:01.684335Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "503983537176426151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:19.103379Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "646971516261106184",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:56.448156Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "777568947981917582",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:19.103379Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "507361289453259733",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:17.087809Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "505109489448724844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:43.983649Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724538182088361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:43.983649Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:01:58.076107Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "524249787961450167",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:00:07.494001Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.73 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Connexion 10.0% $0.73 Brother 10.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +273.5% | $6.31 +30.3% | 50.0% | +141.9% | $4.84 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.94 Allure 10.0% $1.71 Monster Call 10.0% $1.58 Brother 10.0% $1.54 Connexion 10.0% $1.33 | $38.92 +196.9% | $13.96 +6.5% | 50.0% | +112.5% | $13.11 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.73 Monster Call 8.0% $0.74 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Brother 8.0% $0.71 Connexion 8.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +218.2% | $7.42 +30.7% | 60.0% | +123.6% | $5.68 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.73 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Brother 6.0% $0.71 Connexion 6.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +165.1% | $8.54 +25.3% | 35.0% | +102.9% | $6.82 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.73 Monster Call 16.0% $0.74 Allure 16.0% $0.74 Connexion 16.0% $0.73 Brother 16.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +656.3% | $2.95 +23.5% | 20.0% | +216.6% | $2.39 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.73 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Connexion 4.0% $0.73 Brother 4.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +124.8% | $9.66 +20.2% | 40.0% | +85.5% | $8.04 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.88 Allure 2.0% $1.71 Monster Call 2.0% $1.58 Brother 2.0% $1.54 Connexion 2.0% $1.33 | $38.92 +95.5% | $23.91 +20.1% | 45.0% | +68.6% | $19.91 | — |