The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Runic
2x $0.29
Mainframe 001
1x $0.41
Ultralight
1x $0.53
Freight
1x $1.70
Royal Baroque
3x $1.40
Yeti Camo
1x $1.92
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
25.0% $38.92
Royal Guard
25.0% $13.94
Allure
10.0% $1.71
Monster Call
10.0% $1.58
Brother
10.0% $1.54
Connexion
10.0% $1.33
Max Win
$38.92 (+196.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$13.96 (+6.5%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+116.6%
Cost
$13.11
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $13.11
Ask Price EV $13.96 (+6.5%)
Bid Price EV $12.60 (-3.9%)
Ask Profit $0.85 (+6.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.51 (-3.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.35 (+10.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.85
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.51
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+196.9%)
Worst Case $1.24 (-90.5%)
Volatility +116.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$13.32
Avg Loss -$11.63
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.24 (-90.5%)
Std Dev $15.29
Avg Norm Float 0.0933
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 93h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$1.70 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.23 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 36S //TOTAL COST $13.11 //ASK PRICE EV $13.96 //BID PRICE EV $12.60 //ASK PROFIT $0.85 (+6.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.51 (-3.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +116.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$38.92
+$25.81
+196.9%
$34.38
+$21.27
+162.2%
$4.54
11.7%
—
SMALL WIN
25.0%
$13.94
+$0.83
+6.4%
$13.24
+$0.13
+1.0%
$0.70
5.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.71
-$11.40
-87.0%
$1.54
-$11.57
-88.3%
$0.17
9.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.58
-$11.53
-87.9%
$1.55
-$11.56
-88.2%
$0.03
1.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.54
-$11.57
-88.3%
$1.53
-$11.58
-88.3%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.33
-$11.78
-89.9%
$1.23
-$11.88
-90.6%
$0.10
7.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.24
-$11.87
-90.5%
$1.12
-$11.99
-91.5%
$0.12
10.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.0699675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.055973999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.943999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.86,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:16.261131Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.074632,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 1.327,
"optimistic_value": 1.32,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:54:51.953988Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09329,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 1.7069999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:55:09.953829Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09329,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 1.58,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 1.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:50.767597Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.074632,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 1.244,
"optimistic_value": 1.23,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:28.899631Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09329,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 1.54,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 1.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:47.599629Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1cab0d4dc6a44993e0d3e4de",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "514116688948786470",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:51.267315Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "511864836540298521",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:51.533862Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "661608215076176884",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:22.134156Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "509613089304458811",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:34.260724Z"
},
{
"price": 1.7,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "516368436282328550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:29.659589Z"
},
{
"price": 1.4,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "498354037509124375",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:34.890120Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:34.890120Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:34.890120Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "493850490549146908",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:39.226625Z"
},
{
"price": 2.23,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "519746135815383200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:00.585370Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.73 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Connexion 10.0% $0.73 Brother 10.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +273.5% | $6.31 +30.3% | 50.0% | +141.9% | $4.84 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.31 Connexion 10.0% $0.73 Brother 10.0% $0.69 Monster Call 10.0% $0.67 Kitbash 10.0% $0.64 | $6.93 +191.2% | $2.40 +0.7% | 25.0% | +108.0% | $2.38 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.73 Monster Call 8.0% $0.74 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Brother 8.0% $0.71 Connexion 8.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +218.2% | $7.42 +30.7% | 60.0% | +123.6% | $5.68 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.73 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Brother 6.0% $0.71 Connexion 6.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +165.1% | $8.54 +25.3% | 35.0% | +102.9% | $6.82 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.73 Monster Call 16.0% $0.74 Allure 16.0% $0.74 Connexion 16.0% $0.73 Brother 16.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +656.3% | $2.95 +23.5% | 20.0% | +216.6% | $2.39 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.73 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Connexion 4.0% $0.73 Brother 4.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +124.8% | $9.66 +20.2% | 40.0% | +85.5% | $8.04 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.88 Allure 2.0% $1.71 Monster Call 2.0% $1.58 Brother 2.0% $1.54 Connexion 2.0% $1.33 | $38.92 +95.5% | $23.91 +20.1% | 45.0% | +68.6% | $19.91 | — |