The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Mainframe 001
1x $0.41
Ultralight
2x $0.53
Runic
1x $1.62
Freight
1x $1.70
Royal Baroque
2x $1.44
Yeti Camo
1x $1.92
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
25.0% $38.92
Royal Guard
25.0% $13.94
Brother
10.0% $11.42
Allure
10.0% $8.88
Monster Call
10.0% $8.29
Connexion
10.0% $7.01
Max Win
$38.92 (+106.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.33 (-8.1%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+67.6%
Cost
$18.87
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.87
Ask Price EV $17.33 (-8.1%)
Bid Price EV $15.98 (-15.3%)
Ask Profit $-1.54 (-8.1%)
Bid Profit $-2.89 (-15.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.36 (+7.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.54
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.89
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+106.3%)
Worst Case $5.56 (-70.5%)
Volatility +67.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 75.0%
Avg Win +$20.05
Avg Loss -$8.73
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.56 (-70.5%)
Std Dev $12.76
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 93h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Factory New
$1.41 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$1.70 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.23 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Factory New
$3.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 14S //TOTAL COST $18.87 //ASK PRICE EV $17.33 //BID PRICE EV $15.98 //ASK PROFIT $-1.54 (-8.1%) //BID PROFIT $-2.89 (-15.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +67.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$38.92
+$20.05
+106.3%
$34.38
+$15.51
+82.2%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$13.94
-$4.93
-26.1%
$13.24
-$5.63
-29.8%
$0.70
5.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$11.42
-$7.45
-39.5%
$11.24
-$7.63
-40.4%
$0.18
1.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$8.88
-$9.99
-52.9%
$8.83
-$10.04
-53.2%
$0.05
0.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$8.29
-$10.58
-56.1%
$8.11
-$10.76
-57.0%
$0.18
2.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$7.01
-$11.86
-62.8%
$6.99
-$11.88
-63.0%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$5.56
-$13.31
-70.5%
$5.53
-$13.34
-70.7%
$0.03
0.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.052469999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.04197599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.943999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.86,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:16.261131Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.055968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 7.0135,
"optimistic_value": 7.01,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 6.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:48.153398Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 8.8805,
"optimistic_value": 8.87,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 8.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:33.537009Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 8.285499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 8.24,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 8.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:54:49.552530Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.055968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 5.5634999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 5.56,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 5.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:22.229184Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 11.424,
"optimistic_value": 11.41,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 11.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:34:38.920460Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1cab0d4dc6a44993e0d3e4de",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "511864836540298521",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:51.533862Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "661608215076176884",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:22.134156Z"
},
{
"price": 1.41,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "507360492281933533",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:58.691419Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "509613089304458811",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:34.260724Z"
},
{
"price": 1.7,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "516368436282328550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:29.659589Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:34.890120Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "493850490549146908",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:39.226625Z"
},
{
"price": 2.23,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "519746135815383200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:00.585370Z"
},
{
"price": 3.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "619949307134804143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:05.635041Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:43.476109Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.73 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Connexion 10.0% $0.73 Brother 10.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +273.5% | $6.31 +30.3% | 50.0% | +141.9% | $4.84 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.94 Allure 10.0% $1.71 Monster Call 10.0% $1.58 Brother 10.0% $1.54 Connexion 10.0% $1.33 | $38.92 +196.9% | $13.96 +6.5% | 50.0% | +112.5% | $13.11 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.31 Connexion 10.0% $0.73 Brother 10.0% $0.69 Monster Call 10.0% $0.67 Kitbash 10.0% $0.64 | $6.93 +191.2% | $2.40 +0.7% | 25.0% | +108.0% | $2.38 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.73 Monster Call 8.0% $0.74 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Brother 8.0% $0.71 Connexion 8.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +218.2% | $7.42 +30.7% | 60.0% | +123.6% | $5.68 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.73 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Brother 6.0% $0.71 Connexion 6.0% $0.68 | $18.08 +165.1% | $8.54 +25.3% | 35.0% | +102.9% | $6.82 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.73 Monster Call 16.0% $0.74 Allure 16.0% $0.74 Connexion 16.0% $0.73 Brother 16.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +656.3% | $2.95 +23.5% | 20.0% | +216.6% | $2.39 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.73 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Connexion 4.0% $0.73 Brother 4.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +124.8% | $9.66 +20.2% | 40.0% | +85.5% | $8.04 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.88 Allure 2.0% $1.71 Monster Call 2.0% $1.58 Brother 2.0% $1.54 Connexion 2.0% $1.33 | $38.92 +95.5% | $23.91 +20.1% | 45.0% | +68.6% | $19.91 | — |